Colonel Khodarenok urged not to wait for a radical change after the capture of Pokrovsk
Units and formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue successful offensive operations in the Pokrovsky direction. Can the Russian troops' offensive be considered fast, is a trap possible from the AFU and how the situation in the area will develop in the near future, the military observer of Gazeta analyzed.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
As a result of persistent fighting, units of the Russian army captured the northern part of the settlement of Ukrainsk and the village of Lysovka. Pokrovsk is just over five kilometers away. Great importance is attached to the storming of this city.
Pokrovsk is considered the "western gate of Donbass". The city, which is also the capital of the district of the same name, is an important communications center, a major railway junction, and the E50 Pokrovsk - Karlovka - Donetsk highway passes through Pokrovsk, as well as the T-0504 Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka road, T-0515 (Alexandrovka - Pokrovsk) and T-0406 (Grigorovka - Mezhevaya - Pokrovsk).
It is through these communications that troops are transferred (including marching replenishment), all types of material supplies are brought in to create and maintain established stocks of weapons, equipment, ammunition, fuel in the Ukrainian troops, to replenish their consumption and losses during hostilities.
The successful advance of Russian troops in the Pokrovsky direction has caused a flurry of publications in the media of Western countries, the content of which boils down to the plight of Ukrainian troops.
Are they moving fast?
However, do not overestimate this analysis. It is quite possible that all these materials are largely inspired by the Ukrainian side, and their main goal is to draw the attention of the public of the countries of the collective West to the situation at the front and ultimately increase pressure on their governments to increase the supply of weapons and military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, if the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsky direction turns out to be really threatening, then the necessary assistance to Kiev from the United States and NATO will be provided without any pressure from civil society on the governments of the alliance member states, up to the organization of an air bridge. This is the essence of NATO's general line - to prevent the military defeat of Ukraine.
Since the capture of Avdiivka (February 17, 2024), Russian troops have advanced several tens of kilometers (from Avdiivka to the recently captured Novogrodovka a little more than 30 km). Of course, this is a success, and a considerable success, but in fact the troops advanced 5 km in a month.
For example, there are 644 km from Pokrovsk to Kiev. If you advance at a pace of 5 km per month, you will be able to reach the capital of Ukraine in 128 months or almost 11 years. And if you go by forced march to Lviv (1,183 km), then it will take almost 20 years.
Why is the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine collapsing?
What else can sometimes be compared with the advance of Russian troops in some areas of their defense is the Battle of the Somme River during the First World War, which, as you know, took place from July 1 to November 18, 1916. Then the German defense was pushed at the front 35 km and to a depth of 10 km. If such comparisons seem somewhat exaggerated and even excessive to someone, then, for example, the battle for the city of Ugledar started on October 28, 2022 and continues to the present, and no significant advance of our units has been noted there yet.
Currently, the enemy attributes its failures near Pokrovsky to shortcomings in command and the unsatisfactory quality of troops conducting defensive operations in this direction. It is quite possible that this is the case. But these problems are easily fixable. The commanders of the formations can be replaced within a day by those who are able to solve the tasks assigned to them, and the regrouping of troops from non-attacked directions may well stabilize the situation near Pokrovsk. In addition, it cannot be ruled out that despite the political significance of the occupied territories in the Kursk region, the enemy will begin withdrawing troops from there and transferring them to Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Is a trap possible?
It is suggested that the enemy may be preparing a trap for Russian troops near Pokrovsky, which is already being compared in advance with Operation Zvezda in 1943 (the third Battle of Kharkov). The actions of Field Marshal Erich von Manstein in this operation, which led to the disruption of the Soviet offensive and heavy losses of units and formations of the Red Army, are still being studied in many military academies as a model of mobile defense.
But there are questions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine - does the level of training and manageability of the Ukrainian troops allow such combat operations? And are there military leaders of the level of Erwin Rommel and Erich von Manstein among the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
The roar of big and small drums, the singing of fanfare and the opening of champagne on this occasion is clearly premature. The enemy will withdraw to pre-prepared defensive lines, and they, it should be noted, taking into account the modern capabilities of the engineering troops, are being prepared in a very short time.
Of course, we all wish our fighters and commanders only success, but the experience of a special military operation suggests that approaching any city (locality) does not mean mastering it right away. For example, since the end of April this year, there have been battles for Chas Yar, but the city has not yet been taken by the Russian army. Fighting has been going on for a long time within the city limits of Toretsk, but the Ukrainian army continues to hold this settlement. Recently, parts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation resumed attacks on Ugledar, but there have been no reports of the capture of this settlement either.
Therefore, at this stage, one should refrain from showing excessive enthusiasm and rejoicing over the successful advancement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and be within the framework of cautious optimism.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
