Colonel Khodarenok: The Armed Forces of Ukraine needs reinforcement to hold areas in the Kursk region
The United States is discussing with Ukraine the attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to gain a foothold in the Kursk region. CIA Deputy Director David Cohen acknowledged that they are in contact with Kiev to discuss further actions. According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to gain a foothold in the Russian region. The commander of the Akhmat special forces, Major General Apti Alaudinov, also said that the Ukrainian military is erecting defensive structures and "digging in" near Kursk. How the situation in the Russian region will develop in the near future, the military observer of the Newspaper figured out.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
The heads of the US intelligence services, including FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate and CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, discussed national security issues at an intelligence conference in Bethesda, Maryland. Among the topics were the fight against terrorism, election security and global challenges in Europe and the Middle East. In addition, they discussed the competition of great powers in space, cybersecurity and the importance of public-private partnerships.
The Ukrainian issue was also raised during the speeches. In particular, David Cohen said that the breakthrough of the Russian border in the Kursk region will have an impact on the situation on the main line of contact and on possible negotiations. He noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the occupied territory of Russia "are building defensive structures, and, as far as we can tell, ... intend to hold this territory for some period of time."
Deputy Head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, commander of the Akhmat special forces, Major General Apti Alaudinov also admitted that Ukrainian troops are building defensive structures in the Kursk region.
"In most areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are actively digging in, building defensive structures," he said.
Underestimated the enemy
And although it is clearly premature to draw a final line under the events in the Kursk region, nevertheless, at this stage the following can be said. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken full advantage of the surprise factor here. We can say that
It was believed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had largely lost their offensive potential during the recent battles and were not capable of any large-scale actions in this regard. Reality has shown that this is still far from the case.
In addition, there are questions about intelligence, the fortification equipment of the area in the border zone, the combat and numerical strength of the troops allocated to cover the state border, and finally, the level of leadership of the troops (forces) in this direction by the relevant military leaders.
At the same time, at first, the successful invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Kursk region was carried out with relatively small forces, and the Ukrainian army failed to develop success by introducing second echelons and reserves into the battle for one simple reason - the lack of such. A rapid rush to Kursk and Kurchatov did not work out. In addition, the lack of proper aviation support and the lack of airmobile formations (capable of carrying out tactical helicopter landings) did not play the most positive role for the advancing Ukrainian units and units.
Will the AFU be able to hold the territories?
The question arises - how the situation in the Kursk region will develop in the near future and how well the forecast of Deputy Director of the CIA Cohen about the intention of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "to hold this territory for some period of time" will be justified.
In this regard, we will resort to the most basic operational calculations. The Armed forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region have advanced to a depth of about 25 km and at the front about 40-45 km. That is, the total length of the line of contact in this case will be approximately 150 km. According to the statutory requirements, a motorized rifle division is usually assigned a front line of 30-40 km and a depth of 20-25 km.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine need several divisions in the Kursk region to firmly hold such a protrusion (and conduct defensive actions on the principle of "not a step back"). Since there are no divisions in the Ukrainian army as such, the AFU will need several additional brigades to successfully conduct defensive operations.
It is one thing for small mobile groups to act, and it is another thing to firmly hold a piece of territory. In this case, it is necessary to create tactical engineering barriers, a system of continuous trenches and communication passages, cut-off lines and positions, artillery firing positions, etc.
All this requires strength, funds, engineering equipment, and finally, just time.
However, at this stage, the situation for the units and divisions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was frankly difficult in the Pokrovsky direction. Opinions are expressed that Ukraine will actually lose Donbass after the surrender of Pokrovsk. Russian troops have made significant progress in this direction. Today, they control the last key height in front of Pokrovsk.
It is quite possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may begin withdrawing troops from the Kursk region in order to strengthen troops in the Pokrovsky direction. However, it should be noted here that Pokrovsk has not yet been taken by the Russian army (so far the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this direction are not so much success as the expectation of success), there are no signs of an organized withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Russian territory, and the political price of the retreat of the Armed Forces from the Kursk region is too high. In fact, this will be a kind of recognition by Kiev of the futility of the invasion of Russian territory undertaken on August 6.
For these reasons, there is every reason to believe that the military and political leadership in Kiev will throw all the forces and means at its disposal to stabilize the situation in the Pokrovsky direction and at the same time try to hold the captured area of territory in the Kursk region without resorting to regrouping its units and formations from this region. The very near future will show how the situation will develop.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
