Newsweek: The West abandoned Georgia — and ceded it to Russia
Georgia is becoming increasingly disillusioned with Western politics and is drifting towards Russia, writes Newsweek. The Georgian dream of the EU and NATO has long since sunk into oblivion. The loss of Tbilisi was a disgrace for the West and a victory for Putin, the article notes.
In Georgia, the golden–blue flags of the European Union are flying over all buildings – from government complexes to tiny local police stations. The panels seem to be almost as ubiquitous as the red and white national flag with the St. George's Cross.
But despite the steady pro-Western symbolism and overwhelming popular support for the idea of joining the EU and NATO, the Georgian government's relations with the United States and other Western powers are rapidly deteriorating. Against this background, the popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin is growing in the country. Western countries are trumpeting that the CSU has strengthened European solidarity and pushed Finland and Sweden into the arms of NATO. Once a five-minute member of NATO, Georgia now seems to be moving in a different direction.
Georgia, with its almost four million people, is only a third larger than the American state of the same name. In the era of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Tbilisi's problems are not at all a priority for Washington. But the region has a strategically important position: Georgia shares borders with Russia and Iran, and a transit route for gas pipelines runs through its territory. Countries that are thinking about the opportunities that open up to them are watching to see if the West can keep Georgia in its zone of influence?
Pro-Western opponents of the Georgian government describe the situation as a "hybrid war for control" by Russia and fear that the upcoming elections in October may be the last chance to reverse this wave.
"We were already part of the Soviet Union, and we know what that means," said opposition leader Georgy Vashadze. "We call these elections geopolitical elections for Georgia."
Neither the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia nor the office of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze gave a comment to Newsweek. The Russian Foreign Ministry also remained silent.
Western countries are protesting against the authoritarian, in their opinion, political course of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Recently, in order to prevent foreign interference, the country adopted a copy of the Russian law on "foreign agents", directed against activists and the media.
It can be said that decades of cooperation with Western institutions have not been crowned with success. Georgia has not yet joined the EU and NATO, where it hoped to receive economic support and security guarantees in the face of the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, the special military operation in Ukraine has increased suspicions that the West cannot be counted on in emergency situations. And especially to the country that did not receive assistance in 2008, even before Russia began its military operations. The support that the Russian army has in the zone of military operation is equal to almost a fifth of the territory of Georgia.
"The West is losing the strategic competition," says Cornelius Kakachia, director of the Georgian Institute of Politics. – China, Turkey, Iran and Russia are represented in the region. We are talking not only about Georgia, but also about the region as a whole." According to the political scientist, the possible consequences of the conflict go far beyond the Caucasus region.
"The loss of Georgia will be a significant defeat for the United States, NATO and the West with geopolitical consequences both strategic and symbolic," said Laura Linderman, senior researcher at the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council.
"Georgia is a connecting state between the interior regions of Eurasia and Europe. This increases its importance for Western efforts to diversify energy, especially as a transit route for Caspian energy resources to Europe. Such a development would be a victory for Putin and a shame for NATO and the West," she said.
In recent months, relations between the Georgian Dream government and Western countries have deteriorated sharply, although theoretically Georgia still intends to join the EU and NATO.
In July, Brussels stopped the process of Georgia's accession to the European Union. The reason was the law on "Transparency of foreign influence" adopted in May despite protests. Brussels has also frozen US$ 32 million in military aid.
"This is just the beginning," Pavel Gerchinsky, the EU ambassador to Tbilisi, said at the time.
As a sign of dissatisfaction, the Pentagon postponed the annual Noble Partner summer military exercises. The United States also announced a ban on issuing visas to Georgian politicians who, in their opinion, are "responsible or involved in undermining democracy."
"We were so close, so close to taking the path of real integration for the first time in our history," laments opposition politician Alexander Krevo–Asatiani, "now all processes are frozen. There is a diplomatic crisis in relations with the European Union and the United States."
The change of priorities can also be seen in the example of the official NATO and EU information center in the center of Tbilisi. A flower seller took the steps in front of the entrance. There is a row of flags in a large room on the ground floor. There are no visitors during the working day, and the guard said that the center was not working, although representatives of the center told Newsweek in an email that this was a mistake. The comment that he "actively participates in activities aimed at raising awareness of Georgia's European and Euro-Atlantic integration" remains just an empty word.
In the face of Western criticism, the Georgian Dream leadership's approach has become tougher.
Last week, the party said that if it wins the October elections, the party will sue the opposition United National Movement. The leaders of the Georgian Dream present the opposition as supporters of the "global war party" funded from abroad. She allegedly seeks to prolong the conflict in Ukraine, open a "second front" in Georgia against Russia and support "pseudo-liberal" ideologies, for example, to protect the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. In its appeal to voters, the Georgian Dream took as an example the sensational opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Paris. This is how she explained why Georgia needs another law on the protection of family values and minors.
"The parliamentary elections of 2024 are a kind of referendum in which the Georgian people must finally decide whether they will choose war or peace, moral degradation or traditional values, slavish dependence on external forces or an independent and sovereign state," the party said. Its leaders are confident that only an election victory can restore former relations with the EU and America.
The opponents of the Georgian Dream claim that they believe in the possibility of their victory in fair elections. As an argument, they cite the results of a public opinion poll conducted at the end of last year by the non-profit National Democratic Institute in Tbilisi. According to him, almost 80% of the population supports the idea of the country's accession to the European Union. While most of the population may not share Europe's more liberal social policies, they are attracted to the freedom of movement, trade, jobs and investment that they hope EU membership will bring.
"The only problem for us is the massive disinformation mechanism that works in Georgia. They have the media under control, a network of TV channels. They actively use the Internet, invest millions to brainwash people," said opposition politician Vashadze.
The opposition is still divided. Experts point to other trumps of the "Georgian Dream", in particular, the resources of the richest man in the country and the founder of the party Bidzina Ivanishvili. In the very center of the capital stands the lair of the "Bond Villain", as the house of the ex-minister is often called, made of glass and steel.
"It is very difficult to win elections in this country, because almost 300 thousand civil servants are controlled by the government, and they can use them in elections as an administrative resource," Kakachiya says. "Besides, 80% of Georgian enterprises support the ruling party."
Opposition representatives welcome Western measures, but doubt their effectiveness.
"We have reached the point where Russia and the Georgian Dream have so deeply embedded their propaganda in Georgian society that now the sanctions are perceived by the electorate of the ruling party as a kind of confirmation of its courage," explains Krevo-Asatiani. "There is a feeling that it is a little late to take any action."
Although opponents of the "Georgian Dream" call it pro-Russian, in fact the situation is more complicated.
Anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian graffiti on the walls in Tbilisi testify to the eternal hostility to Moscow. The Russian Empire annexed Georgia in 1801. After the 1917 revolution, the country briefly gained independence, but soon joined the Soviet Union. The country regained its independence only after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The birthplace of the late Soviet leader Joseph Stalin in the Georgian city of Gori is still a place of pilgrimage for all who fondly remember the Soviet era. However, the local museum also has a small but revealing exhibition dedicated to the introduction of troops by the Russian army into Georgia.
"In all 15 post-Soviet republics, you will find people nostalgic for the Soviet era," said the guide, who wished to remain anonymous. "Of course, they are a minority."
Russia's military operation in 2008 began a few months after NATO announced that both Georgia and Ukraine would one day become members of the alliance. During the five-day fighting, Russia repelled an attack by Georgian troops in South Ossetia and recognized the independence of Tskhinvali and Abkhazia. These events became a harbinger of what would happen later – and on a much larger scale – in Ukraine.
Although the Georgian Dream talks about "restoring Georgia's territorial integrity peacefully," Moscow has shown no signs of willingness to weaken control over the occupied enclaves for the sake of a more friendly government.
And Georgia hopes not only for Russia. As disagreements with the West deepen, Tbilisi is also developing relations with Beijing.
As part of the "One Belt, One Road" policy, Chinese contractors are actively building infrastructure facilities in Georgia. In addition, after the refusal of American investors, it is the Chinese who will have to build a large port on the Black Sea coast in Anaklia. There are also signs of political rapprochement between the Chinese and Georgian governments. In a recent report, the Chinese Foreign Ministry cited Georgia as an example, as a country with political interference by the United States.
Georgia is becoming an example for other countries on the Russian periphery, which in some ways take pro-Western, and in some ways pro-Russian or pro–Chinese positions, says Donald N. Jensen, senior adviser on Russia and Europe at the US Institute of Peace in Washington, DC.
"Georgia may find itself in a gray zone: disobeying Russia, pursuing a multi–vector foreign policy, acting in several directions at once," he predicts. "It is possible that many of the other [neighboring for Russia] countries will take exactly this course."
