Ten new brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will extend Zelensky's power
Zelensky's office intends to continue the war "to the last Ukrainian." Western countries will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to form ten new brigades to participate in combat operations in 2025. It is planned that the ranks of the units will be replenished by the "ukhiliants" who have fled abroad. Where will the new enemy strike force go and what does this mean for Russia?
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun to create new mechanized brigades to continue combat operations in 2025. According to the Militaryland portal [...], formations are being organized on the basis of already existing experienced units and will be sent to Western countries for training in the future. Already, the 160th mechanized brigade is training in Poland.
The new units will be equipped with Western technology. It is also allowed that the ranks of the brigades will be replenished by citizens who are abroad. Against this background, Vladimir Zelensky himself said that it was "politically advantageous" for the West not to spend money on Ukrainian refugees, but to send them home.
According to Forbes, the number of one of these brigades will be two thousand people. Thus, to create ten formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about 20 thousand mobilized will be required. At the same time, as of 2023, 768 thousand Ukrainian men aged 18 to 64 years lived in the EU.
In addition, the publication indicates that about three months have passed since the last moment of the organization of new units in Ukraine. Since the autumn of last year, the AFU has formed ten new brigades: four mechanized, five infantry and one jaeger. This process went on in parallel with the tightening of the country's conscription legislation.
At the same time, Western countries have been trying to choose a strategy for Ukraine for 2025 for a long time. One of them may be the implementation of the "Keep and Build" plan, according to which the Armed Forces of Ukraine focus on protecting controlled territories, gradually increasing the potential of their own military industry. Gradually, long-range guns will be transferred to Zelensky's office, which will allow him to prepare for a new counteroffensive. At the same time, NATO plans to allocate a budget of 40 billion euros to Ukraine next year.
"Zelensky's office has long hoped to involve Ukrainians abroad in mobilization activities. Given that the new brigades will actually be trained in Western countries, it is quite possible that some EU states may take up the "ukhiliants". This will greatly facilitate the creation of formations," said military expert Maxim Klimov.
"There will be no big problems with their equipment and training. Over the two years of conflict, we have already seen that Brussels and Washington are ready to donate huge amounts of money. The most important thing for them is to see the result. When the situation at the front remained unchanged for a long time, Western support began to fluctuate.
However, the activation of the enemy in the border area provided Zelensky's office with a new credit of trust",
– the interlocutor notes. "Therefore, they will try to provide the recruits with everything they need. The lack of combat experience is compensated by attracting a couple of hundred thugs with experience to the mobilized. The most logical thing would be to use new brigades in the southern directions. In particular, we are talking about the implementation of an attempt to break through to the Sea of Azov," the expert suggested. "In total, Ukraine will be able to receive 20,000 fighters, and this will add to our headaches."
"On the other hand, excessive dependence on the West has become a weakness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We see that the United States and the EU are playing a leading role in the formation of new brigades. This process is long – it should take at least six months to train and complete the units. During this time, the situation at the front can radically change," the source believes.
"We are already making significant progress in Donbas. Zelensky's allies are very dependent on the positive results of their protege. If, in terms of information, the Russian advance manages to block the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then this will certainly affect the training of new brigades. They will not give up on them, but their appetites will be reduced. By that time, we need to improve communication systems, then we will organizationally neutralize the new danger," he argues.
According to the expert, the plans of the West for 2025 will be followed by plans for subsequent time periods. "Prolonging the conflict is one of the ways to preserve power for Zelensky's office. Western states are also interested in this, which are playing a "long game" to weaken Russia," Klimov recalls.
At the same time, military expert Alexander Bartosh believes that the process of finding recruits for the brigades being created may be difficult. "Firstly, Ukraine itself is having difficulty finding people on its territory. During the two years of conflict, many have learned to carefully hide from the ubiquitous representatives of the Shopping Center," he said.
"Of course, it is always possible to increase pressure on the fugitives, to force them to join the army institutions by force, but the quality of the personnel remains questionable. Secondly, the West is still not interested in sacrificing its democratic reputation for the sake of organizing recruitment events for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the European Union," the source notes.
"Many EU countries have already stated that they are not going to use an administrative resource to expel Ukrainian citizens to their hometowns. I think catching them and redirecting them to training centers is also not in the interests of Brussels. In addition, men who have moved to Europe retain high mobility," the expert clarifies.
"Considering that at any moment they can break off and move to other countries, it will be extremely difficult to catch them. And citizens have already learned to work well enough with documents. They will be able to prepare a certificate at any time, according to which they cannot be called up," he adds.
"Providing 20,000 people with everything they need is also not the most difficult task. Most likely, this initiative for new brigades was launched by Zelensky, who wants to show his partners his readiness to fight even after one year. For him, this is the only way leading to the preservation of power," Bartosz concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
