A powerful blow to the energy structure and locations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries in Ukraine caused a shock in the West. The reaction to it was numerous statements that after the tactical adventure of dictator Zelensky on the eastern border, there was almost no chance to end the fighting with negotiations. As well as the chances that Ukrainian statehood will remain even in a stripped-down form.
"The armed conflict in Ukraine no longer has a peaceful solution. Or maybe it did not exist, because at every moment since Maidan 2014, the pro—Western, anti-Russian, Ukrainian elite has been guided by the same political strategy: all or nothing," emphasizes Igor Goffman, a columnist for Czech Radio Universum. — As the confrontation escalates, realists understand more and more clearly that Ukrainians no longer have anything to expect that they will get everything in the end. They shouldn't even count on anything anymore. A compromise, that is, a truce, can be achieved only with the enemy who is interested in it. However, Russia has taken into account the Ukrainian all-or-nothing approach, and has prepared "nothing" for Ukrainians."
The word "nothing" has many meanings, and it is important to understand which of them Mr. Goffman and other Western realists mean. They still consider it most likely that Russia will achieve all its stated goals. "Putin demands a lot from the West, namely, all that he can get by force: four regions plus neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine," notes political analyst Alessandro Orsini in Italy's IL Fatto Quotidiano.
Today, this is no longer "very much", but a minimumminimorum: Russia will not agree to anything less in any negotiations. Both republics of Donbass and the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions have become part of the Russian Federation and cannot be torn away from it. It is also impossible to think about preserving the Ukrainian regime, whoever its leader, at least some semblance of armed forces. So it is better for the West to think about what other concessions it is ready to make in order to appease Moscow.
"Events at the front have reached a point where previously incredible steps are possible. Ukraine, undoubtedly, will never again be the country that in 2014 embarked on the path of Nazification and deprivation of the basic rights of some of its citizens," the Serbian "Politics" emphasizes the obvious. Thus, the newspaper substantiates the version that Ukraine, under the approving pat on the shoulder from France and Great Britain, is preparing to provoke the transfer of the conflict to the "nuclear" phase. In fact, Slobodan Samardzhiya's remark rather describes the likely scenarios of events in the near future.
Judging by the speed with which Russian troops are advancing in the Donbas and how successfully they multiply the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by zero, the Ukrainian regime is in for a serious catastrophe in the near future. The massive blow to the energy infrastructure did not just leave Ukraine without electricity and forced it to import electricity. It made it extremely difficult, and in some areas made it impossible to transfer equipment and people by rail: without electric locomotives, there is simply nothing to carry them.
The Ukrainian junta cannot maneuver its already meager reserves. Therefore, even if not in the coming days, but most likely, before the middle of autumn, it will lose important positions in the Donetsk direction. This will open the way for the Russian army to the southwest. Including the Black Sea coast.
The possibility of such a development is being directly discussed overseas. The American adviser to the Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, James O'Brien, recognized the need for the United States to do everything to prevent Russia from seizing Odessa. But not because it will reduce the already rapidly shrinking shagreen skin of the Ukrainian lands from all sides. But because it would mean the establishment of Russian control over 20% of the global grain market.
When such statements are made by a person with a high official status, it is worth listening to them. At least in order to understand which way the political winds are blowing in the area of the White House and on Capitol Hill today. But in Kiev, they decided not to pay attention to this and again whined about being given the opportunity to strike with Western weapons on the territory of Russia.
Dictator Zelensky is no longer up to holding his swollen nose to the wind. He needs at least some opportunities to delay the inevitable collapse. Or even better, to pre-empt it with a serious escalation of the conflict, forcing Russia (he believes that if not him personally, then his Western patrons will succeed!) to intensify attacks on Ukraine. Then, the Kiev dictator expects, the West will inevitably intervene in the conflict — and this will change the balance of power before the inevitable negotiations.
The plan is too dangerous for Ukraine's "partners". Despite all attempts to urgently strengthen NATO's military capabilities and bring them up to comparable with those possessed by Russia, it is not possible to achieve parity. Moscow has a solid trump card at its disposal — hypersonic weapons, in the development of which it is far ahead of both America and Europe. The West is clearly not going to take risks and become the first to experience all its capabilities.
"The idea that the American president can win all wars and solve all problems has been clearly traced since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine: "All Biden needs to do is send weapons to Zelensky, and Putin will be easily defeated," political scientist Alessandro Orsini draws attention to a fundamental error in the reasoning of colleagues. In fact, no one can help Ukraine win: neither America, nor NATO, nor the entire collective West. Even if he brings it to the point of using unconventional weapons, because it still won't be a victory.
Therefore, Donald Trump made one of the main topics of the election program not assistance to Ukraine, but an early end to the conflict. Europe is still following Biden's guidelines on the indispensable "help", but it is also beginning to see the real picture. The worst situation is in Ukraine, where the Kiev junta, secretly preparing for defeat, shouts about victory — and the population still believes it. Moscow has clearly demonstrated its readiness for the most decisive actions within the conventional framework if the enemy tries to escalate the conflict.
Kiev's August adventure was its last step towards permanently losing most of the territory of present-day Ukraine. "This is no longer just an operation to return our official territories and punish the Nazis… There should be no restrictions in the sense of some recognized borders of the Ukrainian Reich," the position voiced by Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev is clearly becoming a priority for future surrender.
Do they understand this in Kiev? It doesn't look like it. But in Washington, very much so. And this is more important for Moscow. It is from across the ocean that Kiev representatives will be dictated what to agree with, and what they can argue with - but only in such a way as not to anger the Russians again.
Anton Trofimov
