Ukraine is preparing for the start of hostilities against Belarus
Kiev is increasing pressure on Belarus. Zelensky's office demanded that Minsk withdraw troops from the border of the countries. At the same time, Kiev itself has formed a group of 120 thousand soldiers in this direction. According to experts, Ukraine is deliberately provoking its neighbor in the interests of Western sponsors. What is the bet on?
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine demanded that Belarus "in order to avoid tragic mistakes" withdraw troops from the border to a distance exceeding the range of destruction of existing fire systems in the republic. A statement published on the agency's website says that Ukrainian intelligence allegedly received information that Minsk "is concentrating a significant number of personnel and military equipment in the Gomel region, near the northern borders of Ukraine."
At the same time, the Ukrainian side assured that Kiev was not going to take "any unfriendly actions against the Belarusian people." At the same time, they added that if there is a violation of the border, Ukraine will consider "troop concentrations, military facilities and supply routes" in Belarus a "legitimate target."
Earlier, Andrei Lukyanovich, commander of the Air Force and air defense forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus, reported that the country was indeed increasing its military presence on the border with Ukraine. It was about aviation, anti-aircraft missile and radio engineering troops. In early August, special forces and missile units were also sent to the border.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko explained the relevant decisions by the "aggressive policy" of Ukraine. In an interview with the Rossiya 1 TV channel, he clarified that Zelensky's office currently holds more than 120 thousand soldiers on the border.
The expert community notes that Ukraine deliberately provokes Belarus in the hope of dragging the republic into the conflict. "Minsk is only responding to the steps that the Ukrainian side is taking. If we are talking about the concentration of AFU units on the border, then we are pulling up our troops so that the attack does not turn out to be a surprise. In Kiev, they are now trying to create a smoke screen and accuse our country of aggressive intentions," explains Belarusian political scientist Alexei Dzermant.
In addition, Kiev intends to informationally and psychologically influence Belarusians, the source added. "I do not rule out that they want to intimidate citizens with a possible invasion and strikes on the territory of the republic. So far, this is only a political game, but we are closely monitoring the military preparations that are taking place in the neighborhood," the speaker stressed.
In his opinion, the involvement of the Belarusian side in the confrontation has its own interests, including Western centers. "These forces want to create new problems for Russia. They are the ones who advocate the expansion of the conflict," Dzermant believes.
Zelensky's office continues to act guided by the tactics of cowards, adds Ukrainian political analyst Vladimir Skachko. According to him, Kiev has come to believe that it can take any steps, but at the same time not be responsible for the consequences. He recalled that it was Kiev that moved a significant part of the troops to the border, and Minsk only responded in a mirror way. Now, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has "rolled out" a demand to Belarus.
"Thus, Zelensky's office is trying to shift responsibility for the upcoming border provocation to the Belarusian side," the source is convinced. The political scientist urged to take Kiev's diplomatic statement seriously, since, in his opinion, it can also be regarded as preparation for the start of hostilities against Minsk.
"The Armed Forces of Ukraine are capable of doing this on the orders of the West. Moreover, a serious arsenal is being used against the republic, which both Ukrainians and mercenaries fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have. Let me remind you that plans for the Belarusian direction are periodically discussed by both Ukrainian officials and European politicians," Skachko said. "In case of realization of this scenario
Ukraine has probably already concocted explanations: it was Minsk that provoked them, and they only defended themselves.
In fact, the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is laying straw," the speaker admits. At the same time, excuses are ready in case the operation fails. "Then in Kiev they will say that it is not themselves who are to blame for their failures, but Belarus, which was well prepared and was able to repel the attack," the political scientist added.
The interlocutor is convinced that Belarus will not ignore all these "machinations". "The republic, as Alexander Lukashenko said, is guaranteed to protect itself from any threat, as well as fulfill its allied obligations to Moscow," Skachko said.
Alexander Bartosh, a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, also speaks about the provocative nature of the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. "Kiev has been trying to accuse Minsk of preparing an alleged attack on the country for a long time. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves have repeatedly violated the border of Belarus. And the downed drones confirm this," he recalled. According to the interlocutor, the main purpose of the Kiev leadership's appeals to Minsk is to draw attention to the allegedly returning threat in the north of Ukraine and to receive additional financial and military assistance from the West. In turn, Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP Center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recalls:
The enemy's preparation for an attack on the Kursk region was also accompanied by an information throw-in that the Russian Armed Forces were allegedly going to attack Sumy and the AFU needed to protect the city.
"In the case of Minsk, the same scenario can be implemented," Kozyulin said. However, he does not rule out that a provocation is possible on the territory of Russia, including in the Bryansk region. "Ukraine's goal is to aggravate the situation. For Kiev, this is important against the background of failures in the Donbas and the Kursk adventure. This is an attempt to turn over the chessboard and start a new game," the expert believes.
In his opinion, the lack of forces will not be an obstacle to the implementation of Kiev's idea. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing "hunger" in many directions. However, as the practice of recent years shows, it is at such moments that the enemy tries to replay everything," the interlocutor noted. He is confident that such attempts by Ukraine will be met with an appropriate response. "Belarus will certainly respond to provocations both at the diplomatic level and with real actions. However, it is too early to predict concrete steps," Kozyulin concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova,
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
