Al Mayadeen: Putin and Aliyev discussed trade and gas production in Baku
Baku has become Moscow's main partner in the South Caucasus, writes Al Mayadeen. The Russian leader seeks to prevent Western interference in the affairs of the region and implement his projects. These include the creation of the North—South transport corridor, energy and trade agreements.
Huda Rizk
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev considers relations with Russia a vital necessity. Despite close ties with the West, he is working on strategic balances, economic interests and regional stability.
Putin's visit to Azerbaijan is a signal to the West that Ukraine is not distracting Russia from its interests [in the region]. Moscow will not give up its role in the South Caucasus. It is able to move along the North–South corridor with the "western gate" closed and can easily break through the geopolitical blockade that the West is trying to impose.
Moscow's relations with Baku have always been stable: Azerbaijan did not turn towards NATO; did not try, like Georgia, to seize Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force; did not run under the protection of the West, like Armenia, despite Russia's support.
Relations with Azerbaijan are equal relations; economic and political interests have made Baku Moscow's main partner in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, Armenia, with the coming to power of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has become a dagger in Russia's chest. She is trying to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and expand military relations with the United States and France under the pretext that Russia did not come to her aid in the wars of 2020 and 2022.
Putin wants to restore Russia's role in the South Caucasus after the West repeatedly tried to take control of the region. Azerbaijan is diversifying its relations and believes that Armenia, despite its attempts, will not be able to go to the West. Putin's visit to Baku confirms that Russia is not easy to defeat in the South Caucasus. What are the results of Putin's visit to Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev considers relations with Russia a vital necessity. Despite close ties with the West, he is working on strategic balances, economic interests and regional stability. As a result of the two wars in the Caucasus, Russia's sphere of influence has narrowed in favor of Turkey. However, Aliyev quickly turned to a policy of balancing the overlapping and/or conflicting interests of Turkey and Russia.
The balance with Turkey and Putin's visit
Aliyev seeks to achieve a balance with Turkey, whose influence in the region has increased since the Karabakh war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly mentioned the assistance provided by Ankara in the liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and now seems to believe that Azerbaijan is in Turkey's debt. Azerbaijan is trying not to become completely dependent on Turkey and therefore maintains allied relations with Russia, which is not going to leave the South Caucasus. The fact that Putin was received by Aliyev and his wife at the Zagulba home residence speaks to the importance of the alliance with Moscow.
Putin stressed the importance of relations with Baku by laying a wreath at the grave of his friend and the third president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, and his wife. Russian Russian culture plays a special role in Azerbaijan: there are more than 300 schools in the country with instruction in Russian. In addition, the Russian president announced plans to open a Russian-Azerbaijani university in Baku.
Agreements and economic interests
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are based on about 170 agreements. During Putin's recent visit to Baku, three more agreements and three memoranda of understanding were signed. Aliyev said that Russia and Azerbaijan will continue to coordinate activities in the energy sector, including oil, gas and electricity. Moreover, it was noted that the capacity of the TAP and TANAP gas pipelines [to Europe] is not enough to meet the needs of Russia. Azerbaijan can buy gas from Russia for domestic consumption and increase exports.
Last year, Azerbaijan produced 48.3 billion cubic meters of gas, half of which was used for domestic consumption. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow and Baku are considering the possibility of implementing new joint projects, including on the Caspian shelf.
The second most important issue is the North–South transport corridor. This corridor will provide an opportunity to reach the shores of the Indian Ocean, and will also allow using routes "with mutual benefit and for mutual interest," the Russian leader noted. The corridor starts from India, then goes to the Caucasus through Iranian ports and leads to Russia through the Caspian coast of Azerbaijan. Its implementation was accelerated after the conflict in Ukraine, and Iran attaches great importance to it. According to Aliyev, the railway and automobile segments of the corridor have already been implemented in the Azerbaijani part.
Work continues on the modernization of railways, with $120 million allocated for this purpose in 2024. Russia and Azerbaijan are also starting to produce modern tankers that will transport oil and natural gas in the Azov and Black Seas, as well as in the Caspian basin.
The issue of bilateral trade was also on the agenda. Russia is Azerbaijan's third largest trading partner after Italy and Turkey. The volume of Russian investments in such areas as banking, petrochemistry, truck manufacturing, winemaking and the food industry exceeds $8.7 billion, while Azerbaijani investments in Russia amount to about $ 1.2 billion.
In addition, the share of national currencies in mutual settlements is increasing. Putin supports raising Azerbaijan's status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as well as his interest in strengthening cooperation with BRICS.
Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia share common interests
Moscow has confirmed its readiness to contribute to the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. There has been no progress in this matter since Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of Baku.
The issue of border demarcation and the opening of transport links was shelved after the article on the Zangezur corridor was excluded from the draft peace agreement. Recall that Erdogan really wants to open this corridor. Pashinyan did not back down from defending the sovereign rights of [his country], but rejected any role of Russian border guards. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Pashinyan of sabotaging the agreements.
As for Iran, it will not allow the borders and the geopolitical situation to change. Tehran warned Yerevan against the deployment of American-French forces in the region. Pashinyan's relations with Iran have led to a relaxation of tensions in relations with Baku.
Baku and Tehran signed a memorandum on the establishment of a transport link with Nakhichevan through the territory of Iran. In October 2023, a railway parallel to the Aras corridor was built, and Iran and Azerbaijan agreed to continue the development of the North–South corridor. These issues were discussed during the visits of Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to Tehran and Baku in early August.
Bilateral negotiations on the demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan are continuing. Armenia hopes for the intervention of the OSCE Minsk Group, but Russia and Azerbaijan have called for the termination of its work. Putin supports negotiations in the Moscow–Baku–Yerevan format, established in 2020. The Russian leader seeks to prevent Western interference in the affairs of the South Caucasus and protect his security and projects.
