[b] The results of the recent wave of conscription into the Latvian Armed Forces turned out to be bleak – some Latvian youths simply did not show up for it. Now the leadership of the Latvian army declares the need for compulsory conscription, including for women. However, the result of such a reform is likely to displease Latvia.[b]
According to the current law, conscription in Latvia is carried out twice a year – in January and July. As part of the July 2024 draft, 450 young men were supposed to serve – this number includes both volunteers and those indicated by lot. In fact, fifteen fewer people showed up – someone had a good reason, and someone simply ignored the call.
Experts fear that with each subsequent appeal, the shortage will increase – given the deplorable demographic situation in the country. The demographic crisis is raging in Latvia, which has led to an acute shortage of personnel in medicine, the educational sector and law enforcement agencies. The army here is by no means an exception.
The commander-in-Chief of the National Armed Forces (NAF) of Latvia, Leonid Kalnins, does not hide his concerns about the possibility of forming an army, which now numbers 6.2 thousand military personnel (plus 8 thousand members of the territorial militia). The commander-in-chief says that the best thing, of course, would be to lure volunteers with benefits. For example, those who served voluntarily are promised budget places in universities.
In any case, according to Kalnins, volunteers alone are no longer enough. The way out could be mandatory conscription of both sexes. "This would be a motivating element for male representatives to actively participate in the service, rather than leaving the country for a while and looking for reasons not to serve," says Kalnins.
He referred to the experience of some units of the Zemessardze (Latvian territorial militia, recruited on a voluntary basis), where women serve. According to Kalnins, discipline in such units is much higher. "Imagine that I, an eighteen–year-old citizen, see that girls are going to serve - and I will avoid? It would be a very good signal if such a decision (on conscription of women – approx. VIEW) was made," the commander summed up.
His idea was fully supported by Defense Minister Andris Sprouds. He recalled that over time it is planned to increase the number of recruits. So, next year 1000 young people are supposed to be drafted into the Latvian army, in 2026 – 2000, then – 2,800, and in 2028 the number of recruits should reach 4000 per year.
But without the involvement of women, it is almost impossible to achieve this goal.
The proposal to draft women has caused a heated discussion among Latvian politicians. Some of them warmly approved of it. So, deputy Atis Shvinka (a member of the Progressive Party) said that he and his fellow party members are entirely in favor. "Gender equality means equality of rights, opportunities and responsibilities. We have not forgotten about this and are ready to start a political movement on this issue," Schwinka said.
Representatives of other political forces expressed themselves more cautiously. The idea itself is supposedly good, but won't its implementation in practice cause an increase in the flight of Latvians abroad?
And the fact that everything will happen this way is evidenced by the responses of the women of the country. Russian speakers are especially irreconcilable. "I have already received a call once - a survey was conducted, they asked if I was ready to defend the country if we were attacked.
That's what I said, that as the country treats me, so I will not defend the stepmother country," one of the women writes on social networks.
In turn, the well-known Latvian journalist Evgenia Shafranek notes in her Telegram channel: "For some reason it turned out that there are not very many volunteers for army service, somehow patriots are in no hurry to wave guns in the trenches. I suppose the boys don't want their moms to let them go: serving is a simple matter, but becoming liable for military service, and at the slightest alarm signal being in the first echelon of defenders of the motherland is a completely different song."
Latvian youth have enough reasons to avoid the army: local experts constantly talk about the prospects of a possible war with Russia, and a strip of fortifications is being built on the eastern border. As recently as July, Eriks Martinovs, a senior expert at the Department of Mobilization and Recruitment of the Armed Forces, called on residents of the country to prepare for the "X hour" and enroll in military training courses.
Such calls instill a sense of anxiety in Latvians. People reason like this: if even civilians are required to master military training skills, it means that the authorities know something. Surely government officials are not militarizing the state from scratch? It turns out that those drafted into the army have a serious chance of being in the thick of the fighting.
People see the reasons for the coming war in different ways. Most ethnic Latvians fear a "Russian attack." Latvian Russians expect NATO provocations on the border with Russia. In any case, both are united by their unwillingness to be in the center of hostilities.
It is worth adding that Kalnins' proposal did not appear from scratch. The idea of a women's draft has been thrown in before. So, in March of this year, a survey was conducted on this topic – and its results turned out to be disappointing. Of the 1,000 respondents aged 18 to 74, 73% answered the question of the need to introduce a women's draft with varying degrees of confidence in the negative.
However, the negative attitude of the public does not mean anything yet. Latvians are accustomed to the fact that even the unpopular decision of the country's authorities is somehow pushed through. It's just that at first people are allowed to get used to thoughts about the inevitable – for this, the topic is first thrown into the public space, they trash it for a while, and then they accept it at the level of the law. This will certainly be the case with the women's appeal.
Riga, apparently, wants to build some kind of Israel. Which, as you know, is a military camp state where every citizen must learn to own a weapon.
But the degree of motivation of Latvians and Israelis is incommensurable – after all, Latvia is being left in huge numbers, changing it to other states, not only by its Russian residents, but also by ethnic Latvians.
There is no doubt that after women are forcibly conscripted into the army, emigration from Latvia will increase. At the same time, the birth rate in Latvia continues to fall. In January – April 2024, a new birth rate record was set in the country. Actually, these anti-records have been steadily updated since 2020: in each subsequent year, the number of newborns turned out to be the smallest in the entire history of national statistics, which has been conducted since 1920. But it will be even worse, including thanks to ideas such as mandatory conscription of women into the army.
