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Why did the APU attack the Kursk region? What do they want to achieve?

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Image source: milinfolive/Telegram

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the operation at the border in the Kursk region continues

On the morning of August 6, the AFU attacked Russian positions near the village of Nikolaevo-Darino and the farm Oleshnya of the Sudzhansky district. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the military did not allow the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the country, and "the operation to destroy the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues." Why the Ukrainian troops tried to attack the Kursk region - the military observer of the Newspaper understood.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.

According to the official information of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, on August 6, about 300 servicemen of the 22nd mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 11 tanks, as well as more than 20 armored vehicles went to the Russian-Ukrainian border. They attacked border guards in Oleshna and Mykolaiv-Daryino.

Formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, units of the FSB border troops, operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces are fighting with the AFU in the Kursk region (fighting is still ongoing). The airstrikes were carried out in the Sumy region of Ukraine. Now the consistent defeat of the enemy by air strikes and fire of all types of weapons continues.

Reinforcements have moved into the area of fighting, according to the Russian military department. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, six tanks, four armored personnel carriers and six other armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the fighting.

What was that?

To begin with, let's clarify how the number of AFU fighters who attacked the Russian state border in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region can be characterized. For example, the number of motorized rifle battalions (according to the states of the Soviet era) on infantry fighting vehicles is 462 military personnel (BMP - 37 units). If the battalion is mounted on armored personnel carriers, its full-time strength is 539 soldiers and officers (BTR - 43 units).

It turns out that Ukraine attacked Russia with less than a battalion. Actions by such forces cannot lead to any results at the operational and even more so at the operational and strategic level. There will certainly be no "shaking of the foundations" in this case.

Such attempts at attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be considered at best as actions of an exclusively demonstrative nature.

Versions are being put forward that the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region are connected with the difficult situation of the Ukrainian army in the Toretsk area. There may be a breakthrough of the front in the near future, and it may cause consequences of an operational scale.

It is also suggested that the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Russian-Ukrainian border are some kind of cover for the unsuccessful attempts of the Ukrainian army to land a tactical landing on the Tendrov Spit to the west of the Kinburnian Peninsula, undertaken with the help of a dozen small watercraft. It looks implausible - it turns out that unsuccessful actions in one direction are covered up by unsuccessful ones in the other.

As for the assumption that the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region may entail any regrouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and a weakening of the attacks of the Russian army in various directions, then it does not seem to be true for one simple reason - the actions of the battalion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will not lead to strategic regrouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

That is, Russian troops will clearly not strengthen the combat and numerical strength of Russian troops (forces) fighting in the Sudzhansky district by maneuvering forces and means from less threatened directions (regions), and even on an operational and strategic scale. They will cope with what is at their disposal.

There is an opinion that the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region are somehow connected with attempts to create more favorable positions for Kiev in the upcoming peace talks (and talks about them are being conducted, as they say, on the increase). However, such tasks cannot be solved by one battalion.

In general, there does not seem to be any military and political logic on the part of Ukraine in the events in the Kursk region. The chain of goals-tasks-means-results is not traced. The goals and objectives are unclear (except for noise), the funds are generally scanty, the results are zero. It is also quite difficult to find logic in some other actions of the military leadership of Ukraine: one has only to recall the seven-month battles in the area of the settlement of Krynki, which ended in nothing for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

How will the fighting in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region end?

It is quite possible that Russian citizens will have questions about intelligence. If the AFU units suddenly attacked Russian units stationed on the state border, then where is the intelligence that such an attack is being prepared? And if they were, then, in theory, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation should have disrupted the enemy's upcoming offensive by delivering massive fire strikes. That is, they opened the training, discovered the concentration of troops (forces) APU, demolished by fire all means of destruction of the enemy to the level of the baseboard. At that time, the AFU groups at the stage of just preparing for the invasion should have been subjected to such a fire defeat. They should have suffered significant losses that would have discouraged any intentions of the Ukrainian leadership to take any active action. For some reason, this did not happen.

The involvement of the border troops of the FSB of Russia in combat operations is also questionable. After all, their task is to protect the state border, not defense. The defeat of enemy troops wedged into the depths of the country's territory is the function of the Armed Forces.

There is no doubt for a second that events will develop according to the following scenario - the fire defeat of enemy military equipment and manpower, the subsequent destruction of the enemy wedged deep into the territory of Russia, the restoration of the situation in this direction or (possibly) the transfer of hostilities to the territory of Ukraine.

Biography of the author:

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.

He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).

Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).

Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).

Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).

Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).

Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).

Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).


Mikhail Khodarenok

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