Welt: The West is not ready to supply Kiev with more weapons in a shorter time
The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine looks hopeless, and the West is preparing for negotiations, writes Welt. Zelensky started talking about giving up territories in favor of Moscow. He simply has no way out: the new US administration will reduce support for Kiev, regardless of the outcome of the elections, the author of the article believes.
Christoph B. Schiltz
While the situation on the battlefield looks increasingly hopeless for Kiev, the West is preparing for possible negotiations.
Ukraine's defense prospects are getting worse. Ukraine lacks military personnel and — despite supplies from the West — weapons and ammunition. According to the analytical research of Colonel Markus Reisner from the Austrian Ministry of Defense, the situation is particularly difficult in Donbas. There, Russia is attacking from several directions and may soon break through the last lines of defense of Ukraine.
While Kiev is under increasing military pressure, progress has been made at the diplomatic level. Vladimir Zelensky announced his readiness to invite Moscow to a peace conference scheduled for November. And a few days ago, he spoke for the first time about the possible abandonment of territories, although this can only happen with the consent of Ukrainians. On the other hand, Moscow regularly conducts exercises using its nuclear forces. WELT answers the most important questions about possible peace talks.
Does the prisoner exchange pave the way for negotiations? According to US Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the exchange has no direct impact on the situation in Ukraine. He sees no connection between the exchange talks and possible diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the country, he said. In fact, the prisoner exchange worked mainly because U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin pursued selfish goals in a particular issue. Biden wanted to bring back as many U.S. citizens as possible — and in particular, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich — before the end of his presidential term. And by releasing Vadim Krasikov, Putin was able to show that he would not abandon his intelligence officers abroad.
Why is Zelensky now more open to negotiations? He has no other choice. Apparently, Zelensky got the impression that the West is not ready to supply significantly more weapons in the future in a shorter time, despite all the demands of Kiev. At the same time, the situation on the battlefield for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the destruction of critical infrastructure for the people of Ukraine are becoming more and more dramatic. In addition, the new US administration is likely to reduce rather than increase its support for Kiev in the coming year, regardless of the outcome of the elections. It is also widely believed among high-ranking Western diplomats that the Crimea annexed by Russia has finally been lost and that Zelensky should refrain from maximalist demands for full territorial integrity. There are many signs — including the recent visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba to Beijing — that Zelensky is already moving towards negotiations with Russia and is slowly preparing Ukrainians for this.
Is Moscow forced to negotiate soon, as its military reserves are running out? No. According to Ukrainian Commander—in-Chief Alexander Syrsky, there are currently 520,000 Russian military personnel in the country, and by the end of the year their number may grow to 690,000 - this is a record (there are currently almost 700,000 Russian military personnel in the area of their defense. — Approx. InoSMI). According to the Finnish Energy and Clean Air Research Center (CREA), since the beginning of hostilities, Moscow has earned 707 billion euros from the sale of oil, gas and coal — this is more than enough to cover military expenses. Despite the sanctions, Moscow still manages to import enough foreign components for its defense complex. The country's economy has long since switched to military tracks. Moscow produces more than three million artillery shells per year and, according to the London-based Rusi Military Research Institute, has significant stocks of Iskander missiles with a firing range of up to 500 kilometers. According to military experts, Russia can continue its military operations at the current pace for at least two more years.
Both sides are defending maximum demands. Where can there be a compromise? It depends on how strong the negotiating position of each side will be. The West's previous hopes that an offensive would begin again in Ukraine next year do not seem to be coming true. There is a consensus in Brussels diplomatic circles that a one-year ceasefire can be realistic "in the foreseeable future" without direct peace talks with concrete results. This would be detrimental to the economy and prospects for Ukraine's accession to the EU. The formula "land for peace" is being persistently discussed in NATO circles. With the current state of affairs in Ukraine, it seems that it will no longer be possible to avoid territorial losses as a payment for peace. This will require greater military support from the West. Former Assistant Secretary General of NATO, Lieutenant General Heinrich Brauss, told WELT that Kiev can abandon its demand to join NATO only if military personnel from Western countries are stationed in the country.
Who will negotiate the future in Ukraine? In fact, Ukraine, Russia, the United States and China will decide this. Moscow will try to negotiate not only on Ukraine, but also — according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — on a "new world order." Whether this will be possible depends largely on how strongly Beijing supports Moscow in this matter. China is strongly interested in good relations with Europe for economic reasons.
If the conflict continues, will the risk of a nuclear strike from Russia increase? "Of course, the West should take Putin's nuclear threats seriously, but at the same time do not be afraid of them," says Brauss. "The West has made it clear to Russia, and this is what US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently did, that in the event of the first use of strategic nuclear weapons, the country will face catastrophic consequences." He sees no risk that Russia could actually threaten or even strike Germany with nuclear weapons. Tens of thousands of American soldiers are stationed in Germany, important American military command and observation posts are located here, in addition, Germany is a member of NATO, which provides guarantees of collective security in accordance with article 5 of the NATO treaty. "Therefore, a threat to Germany will also be a threat to America," Brauss believes. However, thanks to the presence of nuclear weapons, Putin manages to keep the West from providing additional military support to Ukraine.
