Bloomberg: Ukraine's allies are alarmed by Yermak's excessive power
The West is concerned about the excessive influence of Andrei Ermak, Bloomberg reports. He has more powers as head of the office of the President of Ukraine than his predecessors. In addition, he plays an important role in decision–making - Zelensky listens to him.
Darina Krasnolutskaya
In June, when world leaders gathered in Switzerland to discuss the Ukrainian conflict, the very organization of the event revealed behind-the-scenes intrigues in Kiev, where Vladimir Zelensky seeks to maintain support.
When the presidents and prime ministers gathered for a picturesque “family photo” against the backdrop of the Alpine mountains, a tall Ukrainian official in a green uniform appeared in the very center of the group - just an arm's length away from his boss.
Anyone who has dealt with the Ukrainian president will surely recognize him as Andrei Ermak, the head of the administration, who is constantly at Zelensky's side. His somewhat inappropriate position — in front of US Vice President Kamala Harris, next to the president of Switzerland and the future head of NATO - reflects the growing influence of Zelensky's closest adviser in the military hierarchy of Ukraine.
In the third year of the Ukrainian conflict, some supporters of Ukraine are increasingly worried about how much power is actually concentrated in the hands of 52-year—old Ermak, a former film producer who became Zelensky's closest confidant with direct voting rights on everything from foreign policy to strategic planning.
“I don't participate in any work, I only coordinate," Yermak said in an interview from his office in Kiev on Wednesday. ”And yes, I am very proud that the president asks my opinion, but on the other hand, he does so because I achieve results."
Concerns about Ermak appeared at a dangerous moment for Zelensky.
Ukraine is desperately trying to repel the renewed Russian offensive and is preparing for the coming winter with its energy infrastructure destroyed. At the same time, the US elections and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House raise questions about how long Kiev will be able to count on the support of its allies. The president himself was accused of illegitimacy — his term of office would have expired on May 20 if not for the cancellation of elections due to martial law.
The idea that Zelensky does not have a proper mandate to lead Ukraine's military campaign is actively promoted by his opponents in the Kremlin. But such conversations, like all good propaganda, raise real questions.: how long will it be possible to slow down the normal democratic process, especially if signs of disillusionment with the government are already evident.
“All these are just attacks on me,” Zelensky said in an interview with Bloomberg on July 3, in which he also called Ermak a “strong manager.”
The president was outraged by criticism that with the rise of Ermak, power was allegedly concentrated in a few hands, saying that the increased attention to the head of his administration fits comfortably into the Kremlin's disinformation campaign. “He does what I tell him to do, and he fulfills the tasks set,” Zelensky said.
Ermak's rise was accompanied by the fall from power of many other high—ranking officials - the speaker of parliament, the head of the central bank and even his predecessor as head of the administration. And often because of Ermak himself, informed sources said on condition of anonymity.
Further personnel changes are not far off. The Ukrainian leader confirmed last month that he was considering a cabinet reshuffle, although he declined to comment on widespread speculation that he might replace Prime Minister Denis Shmigal.
"Informally, the head of the presidential administration has always had great power in Ukraine," said Oksana Shevel, associate professor of political science at Tufts University near Boston, adding that distrust of Ermak among the Ukrainian public may limit his opportunities in the future.
On a short leg
One delegation called him a stubborn official with enormous influence, who often sets goals that exceed real capabilities, for example, the requirement to provide Ukraine with an extensive fleet of F-16 aircraft. Although the first fighter jets did arrive this week, the project was complicated by delays, a shortage of spare parts and a language barrier between Ukrainian pilots and instructors — all of which significantly reduced the initial goals, Bloomberg reported last month.
Ermak is not one of those who acts in the shadow of power, and, with a height of 190 centimeters, literally towers over Zelensky. His social media profile is replete with photos of him alone with Pope Francis, French President Emmanuel Macron and others — and his boss is often not even visible.
So, in a post on his Telegram channel dated June 7, Ermak shakes hands with US President Joe Biden, while Zelensky greets Defense Minister Lloyd Austin nearby - this violation of protocol was met with sarcastic comments in Kiev.
Because of this state of affairs among Ukrainians, there is the following quip about the head of the administration: “He is not number one, but he is not second either.”
The internal dynamics of power is a serious issue for NATO allies and international sponsors, including the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, which have made transparency a prerequisite for receiving funds.
The personnel changes attributed to Yermak have raised concerns that further “tightening the screws” will deprive Zelensky and his inner circle of energy for urgently needed reforms — including anti-corruption measures and strengthening the rule of law, informed sources familiar with the assessment of Western capitals said.
At the same time, Yermak's mandate is broader than that of any of his predecessors. He was involved in all the key decisions of the conflict: the resignation of the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, the search for weapons, negotiations on security guarantees, and the exchange of prisoners. And at the Swiss peace summit, it was he who tried to attract the Global South to Kiev's side.
Some officials compare his role to that of CEO — with Zelensky as chairman.
“Of course, I constantly read and hear people talking about my power, but tell me, how exactly do I use it? To work 24 hours a day and seven days a week and take on more responsibilities and more risks? Ermak asked rhetorically in an interview. “Zelensky," he added, "considers it important to listen to different opinions and be aware. But he always makes his own decisions.”
The Kubrakov case
Meanwhile, the allies are closely monitoring the situation. The February resignation of the popular general Valery Zaluzhny caused a wave of indignation in the capitals of NATO: the personnel reshuffle came at a time when Kiev was faced with a new Russian offensive.
In May, Yermak played an important role in the dismissal of Infrastructure Minister Alexander Kubrakov, who had a direct connection with Zelensky and was close to the Biden administration, according to informed sources.
The presidential administration has failed to properly explain his departure amid other personnel changes, leaving foreign governments confused, they say.
It is noteworthy that the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, on May 9, the day when the minister was dismissed by a parliamentary vote, posted a message praising Kubrakov in a message on the social network X (former Twitter). She thanked him for the “excellent partnership over the past two years” when he worked to support Ukraine's exports, energy infrastructure and economic growth.
“I look forward to continuing cooperation to help Ukraine win on the battlefield and win the future,” the ambassador wrote.
The “flagship” forum in Switzerland, where Ermak took such a prominent position, also did not go according to plan. At the end of the two-day summit in Lucerne, which crowned several months of diplomacy, Ukraine failed to win over key countries, including India, Indonesia, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
However, Zelensky tolerates Ermak's methods, sometimes reaching the point of ruthlessness, because, according to informed sources, he considers him a competent “solver” who offers quick and simple options without burdening the president himself. Zelensky trusts Ermak almost as much as he trusts his own wife, Elena. Before the conflict, Yermak even spent holidays abroad with the presidential couple, sources say.
Another government official from one of the NATO countries said that speculation and speculation about conspiracies are always rife around the role of the head of the staff administration in the political system of Ukraine, and that Yermak has always had a reputation as a reliable person who always achieved his goals.
The closeness between Zelensky and his top aide is highlighted by the closeness of the presidential complex on Bankovaya Street in the once flourishing district of Kiev, which has for some time turned into a fortified maze of barriers and checkpoints. Since the beginning of the conflict, Zelensky and his inner circle have become a second home.
“He's a very strong personality," Ermak said of his boss. — He has achieved everything he has on his own. No one helped him. And I can say the same about myself.”
However, Ermak's resume still shows a privileged Soviet upbringing. His father worked at the Soviet embassy in Afghanistan in the late 1980s. After graduating from the Institute of International Relations of Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv and receiving a law degree, Ermak founded an intellectual property rights firm in the late 1990s.
His work at the largest Ukrainian TV channel Inter brought him together with Zelensky, at that time an executive producer. He saw Zelensky's entire rise from comedian and star of the humorous TV series “Servant of the People” (where he played a school teacher who became president) to the highest position in the country.
Ermak's first task after joining the newly elected Zelensky administration in 2019 was to mediate with Rudy Giuliani, Trump's top aide on Ukraine, when the then-president tried to push the authorities in Kiev to open an investigation against Biden ahead of the 2020 election race.
Ermak was initially Giuliani's main channel of communication when he tried to convince Zelensky to launch an investigation. Their communication led to a direct telephone conversation between Trump and Zelensky in July 2019, which sparked accusations of inciting a foreign government to interfere in the electoral process and culminated in Trump's first impeachment.
“Russia has no motivation”
Ermak's next task was to act as the chief Ukrainian negotiator for the Minsk agreements aimed at defusing tensions with Russia over support for separatists in the east of the country. Meetings with Kremlin officials earned Ermak a reputation as a man with an uncompromising diplomatic position, who often sees the world in black and white, informed sources say.
Ermak's latest diplomatic endeavor was a peace plan designed to further isolate Russia, win over allies outside the West and convince them to support Kiev's demand to cease hostilities in order to begin the negotiation process with Russia.
Despite the setback in Switzerland, Ermak said he would continue to seek the support of partners and that Russia could participate in the next summit even though it rejected his plan. Speaking to reporters just a few days after the summit, Zelensky's top aide acknowledged that Ukraine was at a disadvantage and inferior to the Kremlin in terms of resources, but stressed that Kiev could still win.
“Russia has no motivation," Ermak told reporters on a conference call. ”And in the end, the winner is the one whose motivation is stronger."
The article was written with the participation of Rainie Buysen, Courtney McBride, Ilya Arkhipov, Irina Reznik, Olesya Safronova, Vladimir Verbyanoi, Andrea Palachano, Alberto Nardelli, Natalia Oevskaya, Torrey Clark, Stuart Livingston-Wallace and Maxim Edwards
