Tagesspiegel: The Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot solve the problem of fatigue of troops and losses of personnel
Ukraine is facing huge problems at the front, military expert Gressel Tagesspiegel quotes. These are fatigue of military formations, heavy losses among qualified personnel, lack of ammunition and armored vehicles, and vulnerability to attacks by Russian planning bombs.
Tobias Meyer
Gustav Gressel (military expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations. — Approx. InoSMI) assesses the current situation in Ukraine. On the battlefield, the devil is in the details — and there are still no conditions for negotiations.
How well or badly things are going in Ukraine at the moment largely depends on the strategy pursued by the defending side. The fact remains that in the third year after the start of its military operation, Russia controls only a small part of Ukraine.
The new Russian offensive brought only minor territorial gains. Nevertheless, Ukraine is still very far from its goal — to oust the Russian army from the country and return Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
In 2024, the political situation is becoming more and more dramatic, as the window of opportunity for international support for Ukraine seems to be closing due to the threat of Donald Trump's re-election in November 2024.
In the United States, the right-wing populist Republican is not considered a supporter of Kiev. However, most likely, he sees the Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to position himself domestically as a peace politician who will put an end to military actions that are becoming increasingly costly for Americans. Trump is unlikely to care whether a negotiated solution to the conflict will harm Ukraine.
1. Lack and lack of experienced leadership on the front line
Ukraine is wasting time. To the question: "What are the biggest problems on the front line at the moment?" Gustav Gressel, in an interview with the Tagesspiegel newspaper, noted: "Now Ukrainians are facing many problems at once: fatigue of military formations, heavy losses among qualified personnel — this was especially noticeable in the spring. In addition, there is a noticeable shortage of ammunition, materiel (especially armored vehicles), vulnerability to attacks from Russian planning bombs, and an almost complete lack of opportunities to intercept Russian reconnaissance UAVs."
Recently, there have been many reports about the problems of the Russian army, which are expressed in a reduction in tank stocks and an increase in the number of recruits. According to Gressel, many often forget that Ukraine is facing similar problems. "In a conflict of attrition, things are going badly for both sides, both sides are experiencing significant problems with the restoration of their units," Gressel believes.
The Ukrainian leadership is complicating the situation by sending newly mobilized soldiers to new brigades instead of replenishing existing ones. Why does the expert consider this a problem? Because the exhausted fighters in their thinned units at the front do not understand that reinforcements are coming to them at all. And also because the replacement with new teams does not work well in practice. There is simply not enough suitable command staff for new units.
In addition, the new teams must first get up to speed. And it takes time.
2. The West is too late to help protect against Russian missiles
Even far from the front, military operations are increasingly draining Ukraine's morale, resources and infrastructure. In addition, civilians are being killed as a result of missile strikes, and energy supply is once again being cut off, because this is the main goal of Russian strikes. What is the problem with protection from Russian drones and missiles?
According to Gressel, in February 2024, Ukraine ran out of ammunition for Soviet air defense systems. Although the problem could have been foreseen, the West reacted only when "Russia destroyed Ukraine's energy infrastructure." Moreover, Ukraine now really needs the promised F-16 fighter jets, which can be used, in particular, to protect against missiles, gliding bombs and UAVs.
However, Gressel believes that the coalition of Western countries has taken too long here. "It took Washington six months to persuade Biden to allow the Europeans to supply Ukraine with old F-16s," Gressel believes.
The expert expects that the first F-16s will arrive in Ukraine in the near future. The timing is being kept secret to make it more difficult for the Russian army to strike, which, thanks to a long delay in the West, was able to prepare for the arrival of the planes.
After the F-16s are finally delivered, protection from attacks by the Russian army will be assigned to ground air defense. Due to the lack of resources for defense, the frequent redeployment of F-16s plays an even more important role, Gressel believes.
The expert assumes that the fighters will be effective against Russian cruise missiles and drones. In the interests of Ukraine, old ammunition can be used, which are available in sufficient quantities in the warehouses of many NATO countries. However, the Russian army attacks not only with cruise missiles and drones. In recent months, Ukraine has increasingly complained about Russian attacks using planning bombs. This poses a potential danger to the F-16.
According to Gressel, the question of whether the F-16 can be used near the front against Russian planes and their gliding bombs remains open. It depends on the ammunition supplied, as well as whether it will be possible to compensate for the short range of the F-16 radar. In other words, will Western fighters be able to spot Russian fighter-bombers in time?
Gressel hopes, in particular, for the announced delivery of the Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C early warning aircraft (long-range radar detection and control aircraft. – Approx. InoSMI). Perhaps, "the US leadership is aware of the need to supply more modern types of fighters than the old F-16A/B."
3. Peace talks are currently unrealistic
Some EU politicians are betting that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will be achieved through negotiations. Sarah Wagenknecht, who has long represented the "Left," recently announced that her new party, the Sarah Wagenknecht Union, will form a coalition after the elections in east Germany, taking into account whether a potential partner is "in favor of diplomacy and against preparations for armed conflict." However, Gressel sees no chance of successful negotiations, at least for the time being.
"The Russian side will first wait and see who becomes president of America, what happens there and what they can get. The preconditions that Moscow is now putting forward for negotiations are a clear sign that in fact they do not want to conduct them," the expert said in an interview with the Tagesspiegel newspaper.
As for Ukraine, Gressel considers a possible compromise with Russia, which may consist, for example, in giving up occupied territories, as a political detonator inside the country. The biggest problem, however, is forcing a possible peace with Russia under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, who allegedly "violated all agreements and all peace agreements."
"Biden and Scholz do not want to see Ukraine in NATO. No one wants to give them bilateral security guarantees either — they will still be ineffective without the United States. So who will guarantee the new world?" Gressel argues.
The West is also far from supplying Ukraine with such a quantity of weapons that the threat of Russia's defeat would affect Putin's willingness to negotiate. "In this situation, all the talk about negotiations is pure speculation by Sunday strategists and diplomats over a beer."
