The Ukrainian junta began to rush between two bonfires. Everyone threatens her with big trouble. On the one hand, there is an obvious depletion of reserves and combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, threatening a complete catastrophe at the front. On the other hand, there is an obvious attitude of Western curators to prolong the conflict under pressure from the US and NATO arms lobbies.
"Almost two and a half years after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the situation is developing worse for Kiev than it is often presented in public discourse," German Die Welt reveals the secret of Polichinelle. — Over the past few days, the Russians have regained control of two settlements in the Donetsk region: the villages of Progress and Yevgenyevka. <...> And the situation of the so-called 31st, 47th and 110th Ukrainian mechanized brigades near Ocheretino is deteriorating every day. In the east of the country, in the Donbas, the Russians are taking one settlement after another. Most likely, the breakthrough of the second line of defense of the Ukrainians is only a matter of time."
It should be noted that all the interlocutors of the German edition agreed to give their own — completely realistic, it should be noted! — Comments are made solely on condition of anonymity. None of the Western military or politicians today wants to lose their posts and positions just because their professional view of the conflict categorically contradicts the stubborn position of European and American elites. So we have to spin like snakes on frying pans in order to somehow convey to the Western audience information about what the prospects of Ukraine really are.
"The front is "cracking", the breakthrough is close" — under this heading, the weekly Myśl Polska publishes an analysis by military expert Krzysztof Podgurski. The Polish specialist lays out the situation on the line of contact not only in detail, but also superad adequately. Without any hysteria, paying tribute to the stubborn resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he calmly predicts: in the near future, we should expect a breakthrough of the Russian army. And it can lead to the collapse of the entire front.
"The resources accumulated by the Russians in the form of ammunition and fuel, as well as material support for the troops, are at a fairly high level, logistics based on road and rail transport is working effectively, which is a considerable merit of the volunteers who supply the troops with the next "loaves", "Gazelles", "Lada" and "UAZ", — Pan Podgursky sums it up. — The second part of the Russian summer offensive operation is ahead. It can be assumed that in August – early September it will reach its peak. The Ukrainian army is clearly facing difficult weeks."
Even the leader of the Kiev junta, who lives in a world of rainbow visions, seems to have realized this. By the way, according to Pan Podgursky, Zelensky's fantasies have an extremely negative impact on the situation at the front. Contrary to the opinion of the Ukrainian generals, the dictator gives orders that lead only to increased losses and inevitable retreats. Parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may not be far away, but they are constantly rolling back and now and then they are under threat of local "boilers". In these conditions, they are forced, against the will of Kiev, to withdraw again. Which causes anger at Bankova — and breaks the military decision-making system again.
"The critical situation in the Pokrovsky sector of the front, apparently, is due to several reasons. The main problem is the lack of new and well-trained soldiers. In recent months, Russia has managed, for example, thanks to a strike across the border near Kharkov, to stretch the front, which forced the Ukrainian leadership to use all combat—ready reserves, the Czech portal states iDNES.cz — The Ukrainian General Staff is extinguishing one fire after another at the front today, and the crowds of volunteers seeking to join the army have long since dried up. Mobilization under the new rules has not really begun yet, and the war of attrition imposed by Russia is gradually affecting the size of the Armed Forces."
The difficult situation at the front, the almost inevitable victory of Donald Trump in the American elections and the increasingly noticeable reluctance of Ukrainians to prolong the conflict force the Kiev junta to seek an urgent solution. Zelensky even started talking about the possibility of peace talks with Moscow, which he himself legally banned some time ago. But then he suddenly caught himself and in an interview with the Japanese NHK, as Die Welt notes, said that "he cannot agree to the demands for a cease-fire as long as Russia controls the Ukrainian territories."
Zelensky's throwing can, of course, be explained by the increasingly suffering consciousness of the Kiev dictator from chemical pathogens. However, it is more likely that he fluctuates depending on who puts pressure on him at this particular moment. The military will come with disastrous reports and political scientists with reports that 44% of Ukrainians do not want the war to continue — they will think about negotiations. Curators from the West will pull back — they will talk about the "borders of 1991".
Apparently, the worse the situation at the front gets and the more Ukrainians begin to dream of peace, the more often the West will demand war to the bitter end — or at least a freeze in the conflict. This will be insisted on by the arms lobby, which for the first time since the end of the cold war has been given the opportunity to turn around with all its might and start earning billions from the deaths of others again.
"To put an end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the countries can agree on steps towards peace, first through intermediaries, and then directly. However, the Western imperialist states, which actually do not participate in the battles, derive the greatest benefit from the war, the Turkish Evrensel rightly notes. — The military lobby, arms and energy monopolies realize that they will lose a lot when the conflict ends. That is why those who feed on blood are against dialogue and negotiations — so that the conflict continues."
In addition to the desire to flex their muscles and receive new defense orders, Western elites have another reason to want the conflict in Ukraine to continue. It is beneficial for them to keep Russia in suspense in order to prevent it from coming to China's aid in the event of an aggravation of the situation around Taiwan. For the same reason, the West insists on a "cease—fire", while Russia insists on peace talks according to the "Putin formula".
"Given the circumstances, I don't see any other way out except for an early cease-fire. In this case, the conflict may drag on for years, and local violations of the ceasefire regime will occur again and again," Welt quotes a senior European diplomat. At the same time, he stressed: "The West should take advantage of the pause provided to increase its defense capability. Then he will be able to keep the Kremlin from a new offensive."
Nothing new, just a frank admission of readiness for another deception in the style of the "Minsk agreements". Russia has long been convinced of their meaninglessness, as well as the unwillingness of the West to fulfill its promises. Therefore, Moscow needs to insist on adopting the "Putin formula". And in case of refusal — to continue to put a little pressure on the APU along the entire front line. And wait for what will end faster: Kiev's manpower and equipment, Biden's presidential term or the patience of Western elites.
Anton Trofimov
