TNI: Trump and Vance will correct Biden's mistakes and reconfigure relations with Russia
If Trump becomes president, he will have to focus on China and change relations with Russia, writes TNI. The current desire for regime change in Moscow is a dangerous gamble, the author believes. The risk of catastrophic nuclear escalation is quite real.
Greg R. Lawson
By boldly betting on Donald Trump and Ohio Senator J. D. Vance in the presidential race, the Republican Party has demonstrated its intention to break with the failed foreign policy consensus that has prevailed in Washington for decades. At the same time, the administration of the likely Democratic candidate, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, on the contrary, will double the losing bet on many issues.
This “Washington bubble,” as Obama's speechwriter Ben Rhodes once aptly put it, has already made a number of catastrophic mistakes, weakening America's global position and ignoring the interests of middle-class Americans, especially the key electorate. By adopting a realistic approach to foreign policy in the spirit of President Nixon and a domestic renewal policy, the Trump–Vance administration will be able to correct these mistakes and put America's own interests first.
It is impossible to overestimate the mountain of failures that the Washington elite is guilty of, having managed to squander capital from America's victory in the Cold War at the very beginning of the 21st century. They are numerous, and their consequences are truly massive. Worst of all, the government and big business contributed to the rise of China, which put the United States in front of the greatest geopolitical and economic challenges in its history. The Bubble naively believed that economic interaction with China would lead to liberalization and democratization. But instead, he has strengthened a strategic competitor in an unprecedented way, which now threatens American interests around the world.
And this failure is far from the only one. Among the “merits” of the “Bubble” it is also necessary to mention:
Disregard for border security: The failure to secure national borders has undermined national sovereignty, placed a heavy burden on public institutions and opened the floodgates to a wave of deadly drugs, including fentanyl from China, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
Inattention to the electorate:Washington's elites, by instilling a policy of free trade, have lost sight of the economic difficulties of the American middle class — especially in the industrial Midwest.
Pushing Russia into the arms of China: By expanding NATO to Russia's borders and ignoring Moscow's security concerns, the elite has pressed its most painful points, while spurring its inherent paranoia and imperialist habits. An even greater disaster for US interests was the fact that the elite pushed Moscow and Beijing to create a dangerous axis that could become the dominant force in Eurasia and a threat to the geopolitical position of the United States.
Involvement in Middle Eastern adventures: ill-considered interventions and attempts to change regimes by force for more than twenty years have shaken the region and created a power vacuum that has become a hotbed of terrorism and a hotbed of the migration crisis.
The Trump–Vance tandem offers a clear alternative and a convincing rebuttal to this unfortunate consensus embodied in the clumsy Biden administration, which, despite recent passes towards opposing China and streamlining domestic industrial policy, has not achieved much-needed global changes.
And they are more than urgent, given China's rapid economic growth and technological progress, which have already changed the geopolitical landscape of Asia. The country has invested heavily in such important technologies as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biotechnology. This technological stimulus, combined with a powerful economy and a huge population, has allowed China to become a key global player that can undermine not only American influence, but also the American economy. And if this happens, then in the conditions of a China-centric world order, a foreign policy with American interests at the forefront will be basically unattainable. Thus, it is necessary to find an effective balance of power with China in order to keep America's heart from further decline.
This will require a complex, multifaceted geopolitical strategy combined with internal reforms — only this will serve as a guarantee that America will remain an advanced power and expand the rights and opportunities of the disadvantaged in the era of “superglobalization”.
First, the United States should demand that European NATO partners increase defense spending. America will no longer be able to play the role of the world's policeman and must give priority to the decisive theater of military operations in Asia, as resources become scarce as the national debt grows.
Secondly, it is necessary to reconfigure relations with Russia. The pursuit of regime change in Moscow is a dangerous gamble, as is allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with American weapons. The risk of catastrophic (albeit unintended) nuclear escalation is quite real.In addition, the continuation of this policy will continue to consolidate the Sino-Russian axis. Instead, the United States should rely on Europe to keep Russia in its backyard, while at the same time seeking opportunities to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. It won't be easy and it will take some time. However, if Russia's western flank can be stabilized, the Putin regime (and, more importantly, its possible successor) will gradually begin to realize the long-term threat from China in Central Asia.
Thirdly, the United States must make sure that Israel will stand in an existential confrontation with Hamas and rebuff Iranian ambitions, but at the same time continue to limit direct participation in the affairs of the region, abandoning the policy of preferences to one or another regional power.
Fourth, the United States must resolutely move closer to India and prevent its ties with Russia from becoming a stumbling block. The U.S.-India relationship should be viewed through a geopolitical lens, rather than focusing on moral or trade issues. India represents a significant and powerful counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Fifth, the United States must continue to strengthen relations with Japan and ensure a real turn to Asia (“Turn to Asia" is the foreign policy doctrine of the Obama era. – Approx. InoSMI), redirecting defense investments from Europe there.
Sixth, the United States must adopt a “non-avoidance strategy,” as former Trump administration military official Elbridge Colby put it, to ensure that China does not invade Taiwan. If this happens, China will take over the production of high-quality semiconductors and will have the opportunity to challenge the US naval power and an open system of fair trade.
The most important link in the Trump–Vance program will be the internal agenda, which implements a strategic industrial policy to revitalize production and protect key industries. While the Biden administration has taken appropriate steps in this direction, including the Chip and Science Act, its increased focus on climate change and the prerequisite of “diversity, equity and inclusivity” for subsidies has driven up the cost of energy and made it difficult to invest in industry. The Trump–Vance team will put an end to this ineffective approach. To do this, the following measures will have to be taken:
1. A policy of using all types of fuels, which will provide affordable electricity for industry, technological enterprises and consumers. This means using the undeniable advantages that geography itself has given the United States due to its abundant natural resources.
2. Repatriation of key supply chains and reduction of dependence on China for imports of basic goods and technologies. This implies, among other things, an increase in the extraction of relevant minerals in America, along with a sharp increase in domestic processing capacities.
3. Increase government funding for advanced research and development to maintain America's technological superiority.
4. Support for key industries and sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
5. Investing in the development of local labor resources to ensure that all Americans have the opportunity to compete on an equal footing in high-tech industries.
6. Deregulate as much of American industry as possible to ensure that investments actually go toward upgrading transportation networks, broadband, and energy systems to support economic growth.
Among other important points, we should mention the emphasis on fair trade, which protects American workers and industry from unfair competition, especially from China. In addition, this is increased attention to the American rear, support for small businesses and ordinary taxpayers instead of Wall Street dealers, relief of bureaucratic burdens and targeted assistance to entrepreneurs.
In addition, the Trump–Vance administration must combat the epidemic of drug addiction. To do this, she will have to invest in treatment and prevention programs, secure the border and respond harshly to the “opium war on the contrary” when China floods our streets with fentanyl.
The Trump-Vance administration will prioritize border security, complete the construction of the wall, expand high-tech surveillance capabilities, combat expired visas and illegal employment, and finally really deport everyone who entered America illegally, instead of endless talk about it.
Unlike the hackneyed slogans of the current elite, this comprehensive foreign and domestic strategy recognizes the realities of a changing world order. She puts American interests above all else, both at home and abroad. It effectively competes with the only great power capable of undermining the standard of living of ordinary Americans — China — by focusing on this confrontation and demanding that the allies faithfully fulfill their obligations. She will achieve the necessary investments inside the country and, finally, protect the border and defend American sovereignty.
By rejecting the failed policies of the Washington elite and adopting a new approach, the Trump–Vance tandem will pave the way for new American power, unity and prosperity — instead of division and decline.
Greg Lawson is a freelance analyst at the Wikistrat Center
