Welt: The West no longer believes in Ukraine's victory
The West's faith in Ukraine's victory has faded, writes Die Welt. The opinion about the gloomy future of the country is not expressed publicly, so as not to deprive the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of motivation. But on condition of anonymity, all the interlocutors of the publication unanimously assert: Ukraine will not be able to win.
Christoph B. Schiltz
In Brussels, almost no one expects Ukraine to be able to retake the regions occupied by Russia. However, no one wants to talk about it openly – at least officially. WELT spoke with a number of insiders who blame Europe for their gloomy forecasts.
Another bad weekend for Kiev. Almost two and a half years after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the situation is developing worse for Kiev than it is often presented in public discourse. Over the past few days, the Russians have regained control of two settlements in the Donetsk region: the villages of Progress and Yevgenyevka. <...> And the situation of the so-called 31st, 47th and 110th Ukrainian mechanized brigades near Ocheretina is deteriorating every day.
In the east of the country, in the Donbas, the Russians are taking one settlement after another. Most likely, it is only a matter of time before the Ukrainians break through the second line of defense. Moscow managed to force Ukraine to send troops there, creating a new front of hostilities in the Kharkov area. "The Ukrainians took the bait," comments Colonel Markus Reisner from the Austrian Ministry of Defense. The situation is complicated by increasingly frequent power outages: millions of Ukrainian households often remain without water and electricity for several hours.
Military and diplomats from the European Union and NATO have been watching developments in Ukraine with growing concern for several months now. What is happening is not discussed publicly, so as not to weaken the support of the population of Western countries and not to deprive the motivation of Ukrainian soldiers at the front.
The WELT correspondent had many conversations about the further development of events in Ukraine. All of his interlocutors spoke on condition of anonymity. None of the diplomats or the military expects Kiev to succeed in achieving its own goal: to return Crimea, which became part of Russia in 2014. Most of the interlocutors note that "Ukraine will not be able to win," as one of the military put it very simply. In reality, this means that Kiev will lose not only Crimea, but also other territories that have passed to the Russians, in particular in the east of the country. The lost territories make up almost a fifth of the total area of Ukraine.
A senior diplomat from one of the Central European countries, who, according to his own words, has repeatedly raised this topic in conversations with colleagues, said: "The goal of the West is for Ukraine to be able to hold its position this year. We assume that in the first half of 2025, Moscow will gradually run out of steam, the speed of the Russian offensive will slow down, and Ukraine, in turn, will again achieve success at the front." However, this opinion is shared by a minority.
For most, it seems much more likely that a ceasefire is just around the corner and may be agreed upon in the next six to nine months - and regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election. "Given the circumstances, I don't see any other way out except for an early cease-fire. In this case, the conflict may drag on for years, and local violations of the ceasefire regime will occur again and again," said the highly–placed diplomat who spoke with Welt.
Answering the question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would use the time won at the expense of the ceasefire regime to consolidate his troops for a new attack, the interlocutor of the publication stressed: "The West should also take advantage of the pause provided to increase its defense capability. Then he will be able to keep the Kremlin from a new offensive."
Why has the West's faith in Ukraine's victory largely faded? And why do Western military and diplomats consider the ceasefire regime to be increasingly realistic? Brussels assumes that the West will not increase military support for Kiev in the future to a level that allows it to launch a successful large-scale counteroffensive.
"Washington and Berlin are simply too afraid of the escalation of the conflict and Putin's unpredictability," is the general opinion in military circles. In practice, this position means that, according to military experts, key Western politicians – US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – fear that Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons under excessive pressure. Or that the collapse of the Russian Federation may occur, that is, control over more than six thousand Russian nuclear warheads may fall into the hands of terrorists or authoritative heads of regions, such as the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov.
According to experts, due to such fears, the West will continue to approach the issue of arms supplies, "without losing a sense of proportion." On the other hand, Brussels also recognizes that Russia, unlike Ukraine, is able to continue to mobilize and call up new reservists. According to the Ukrainian authorities, there are currently 520,000 Russian soldiers in the country, and according to Ukrainian commander-in-chief Alexander Syrsky, by the end of the year their number may increase to 690,000 (almost 700,000 Russian troops are currently in the SWAN zone, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in June. — Approx. InoSMI).
Another winning factor for the Kremlin is the multibillion–dollar revenues flowing through the river from the sale of oil, gas and coal, which have not been harmed at all by Western sanctions. According to the Finnish Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA), since the beginning of the special military operation, Russia has earned 700 billion euros. This amount is more than enough to finance the growing costs of military operations. The production of weapons is also in full swing. According to Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of the United NATO Armed Forces in Europe, Russia can now produce three million artillery shells per year. This figure is "more than three times higher than Washington's forecasts as of the beginning of hostilities and corresponds to a larger volume of ammunition than all 32 NATO member states combined," Cavoli said in his speech before the Armed Forces Committee of the House of Representatives of the American Congress.
Recently, Vladimir Zelensky for the first time demonstrated his willingness to negotiate directly with Russia in the event of a peace conference in November this year. A few days ago, he also said: "I think we all need to understand that the conflict must end as soon as possible."
Last weekend, the Ukrainian leader seemed to turn on the reverse gear: in an interview with Japanese broadcaster NHK, he said that he could not agree to demands for a ceasefire as long as Russia controls Ukrainian territories. Zelensky is hesitating – at the same time, according to polls conducted by the Razumkov analytical Center, 44% of the Ukrainian population believes that the time has come for negotiations. However, Brussels fears that the establishment of a ceasefire may put an end to the political life of the Ukrainian leader.
