Andrey Nizamutdinov — on the results of the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to China and attempts to attract India to his side
The visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba to China, which took place last week, was the first after the start of a special military operation, so it inevitably attracted a lot of attention from observers. They expected from him, if not a diplomatic breakthrough, then at least signals that would allow them to create a clear idea of Kiev's positions and approaches to resolving the conflict.
Alas, at the exit, instead of a kuleba — a thick, rich soup — a liquid soup turned out, not seasoned with any meaningful meaning, or even intelligible logic.
A low-key reception
It is worth recalling that after the Euromaidan, relations between Beijing and Kiev did not develop in the best way. Not only are the Chinese wary of a violent change of power, as happened in Ukraine, they also really dislike when they are being deceived. Namely, such a story happened with the purchase by a Chinese investor of 56% of shares in Motor Sich, one of the largest manufacturers of engines for aircraft. The Ukrainian authorities first blocked this deal (even under President Petro Poroshenko), and then, under Vladimir Zelensky, the company was completely nationalized, provoking the righteous anger of the Chinese side. If we add to this the transformation of Ukraine into an outspoken satellite of the United States (by the way, the deal with Motor Sich was disrupted precisely on the instructions of the Americans), it becomes clear why the Chinese leaders did not go to Kiev themselves, and the Ukrainians were not invited to themselves.
After the start of its military operation, Kiev spent a lot of effort to persuade China to its side, but without much success. The Chinese did not support Zelensky's "peace plan" and participate in measures to impose it on Russia, and also refrained from publicly condemning Moscow's actions. Instead, they proposed their own settlement plan based on the equal participation of all stakeholders. But in Kiev and the West behind him, they continued to insist on Zelensky's plan, so dialogue did not work.
So the invitation to visit China, sent by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and his Ukrainian counterpart, really became an event. However, they decided to hold negotiations not in Beijing, but in provincial Guangzhou, which immediately lowered the status of the visit.
Either they are ready, or they are not
The meeting of the Chinese and Ukrainian ministers took place against the background of noticeably intensified discussions about the prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This activity was facilitated by the voyage of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Kiev, Moscow and Beijing, and doubts about the outcome of the US presidential election related to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and Joe Biden's withdrawal from the election race. At the same time, contradictory statements coming from Kiev every now and then did not allow us to understand whether Ukraine was ready for negotiations, and if so, on what terms.
Those who expected that the meeting in Guangzhou would clarify this issue were mistaken — the fog has only thickened. "Ukraine wants to participate in dialogue and negotiations with Russia and is preparing for them," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning quoted the Ukrainian minister as saying. In response, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry issued a comment with its own interpretation: "Dmitry Kuleba has brought Ukraine's consistent position, which is readiness to negotiate with the Russian side at the appropriate stage if Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith. <...> Now there is no such readiness on the Russian side."
Some time later, Kuleba himself spoke out, although his words did not add clarity. "No one will persuade us to negotiate, because it is impossible to persuade us. And we will make any decisions ourselves," the minister said in an interview with the Ukrainian TV channel TCH, answering the question of whether the Chinese Foreign Minister inclined him to this during the last meeting.
There are a lot of plans
Actually, who persuaded whom and to what is another big question. Judging by the statements of the Ukrainian minister made before and after the visit to Guangzhou, it was he himself who tried to persuade his Chinese counterpart to accept Zelensky's "peace plan" as the only correct and possible one. "We need to avoid the competition of peace plans," Kuleba said before the start of negotiations with Wang Yi. And after that he repeated this idea, calling the competition between Zelensky's "formula for peace" and the plan of China and Brazil "counterproductive" and called for "focusing on what unites, not what separates".
It is clear that Kiev proposes to unite exclusively on its own positions. But the attempt to attract Beijing to these positions seems to have been unsuccessful. In any case, Kuleba tried to avoid answering the question of whether China will take part in the "second" peace summit, which Kiev hopes to organize at the end of November (Beijing refused to participate in the disastrous first event, held in mid-June in the Swiss Burgenstock). "Let's live to see the second "peace summit" and then we will watch," the minister said in the same interview with TSN.
"I don't listen to them."
The fact that China intends to adhere to its own line in attempts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is also evidenced by the recent foreign trip of the Chinese government's special representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, within which he plans to visit Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning, this is the "fourth round of shuttle diplomacy on the Ukrainian crisis," during which the Beijing emissary will discuss the prospects for a settlement "with key representatives of the global South."
Meanwhile, Kiev wants to try to win over another major player, India. According to Indian media reports, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may go on a short visit to Ukraine at the end of August. However, "the decision on the level of the visit has not yet been made," that is, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar or National Security Adviser Ajit Doval may go to Kiev instead of Modi. At the same time, Indian experts believe that the prime minister (or another high-ranking official) will not go to Kiev to support the "Zelensky formula", but will offer mediation in resolving the crisis or bring his own settlement plan, the provisions of which could previously have been agreed upon during Modi's recent visit to Russia.
In Moscow, Kiev's wagging from side to side is not given too much attention, noting that the statements about the negotiations coming from the Ukrainian capital are too contradictory and devoid of any specifics. "I don't listen to them, to be honest," admitted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, noting that Zelensky and Kuleba can say one thing today, and the opposite tomorrow.
On the contrary, Russia highly appreciates the peacekeeping efforts of its BRICS partners and is ready to support their initiatives to establish negotiations in every possible way. Of course, if they proceed from an understanding of the root causes of the conflict and take into account the legitimate interests and demands of Russia, and are not based only on the "Zelensky formula", which, in the words of the Russian Foreign Minister, is "dead-end, utopian, illusory and will never materialize."
