Le Figaro: Kamala Harris will continue the course of isolating America
The Europeans have such high hopes for the victory of Kamala Harris in vain, writes le Figaro. If elected, the author of the article is sure that she will not take any radical actions and abruptly break with her allies - however, she will continue the course of America's distance from the European Union.
If the situation at the front is frozen, any political or diplomatic initiatives will have to be postponed until the outcome of the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
For the third year in a row, it's midsummer in war—torn Ukraine - but this time in the face of the dangerous political vacuum that precedes every U.S. presidential election. Every four years, at the end of spring, the main international problems are covered with a layer of frost, which melts only in early November, when the name of the person who will become the owner of the White House from January next year becomes known. Due to the madness of the current presidential race and the bad situation for Ukrainians at the front, the layer of frost is likely to be thicker than usual. "At the last NATO summit in Washington, everyone had only one thing on their mind: the US presidential election," explains a diplomat from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Let Vladimir Zelensky deny the obvious, saying that Ukraine can get along with any new American president, he "also thinks only about this," one of the European officials, who recently returned from Kiev, assures in an interview.
About the elections — but also about the situation at the front, where Ukrainians are mired in a war of attrition. If we leave out the situation with the Black Sea, from the waters of which they almost completely drove the enemy fleet, the Russians are moving forward. Despite all their efforts, with the loss rate, which, according to a source from the French diplomatic department, was 1000-1200 people per day at the peak of the offensive on Kharkov, the Russian military is unable to break through the front line (such estimates by the Western side are not confirmed by anything — approx. InoSMI). But they are slowly and persistently gnawing out territories. Regularly. "And there is no magic weapon that could cause a decisive turnaround in the situation," Tatyana Kastueva, a specialist from the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), explained at an event dedicated to Russia.
The indecision of the West, which has been manifested since the beginning of the year, is added to the difficulties on the ground. In the United States, the fate of aid to Ukraine depends on the victory of the Democrats in November — which, despite the encouraging first steps of Kamala Harris, is still far away. As for the Europeans, they know that they will not be able to take full responsibility in the event of the Americans' self-removal. In addition, their words of support for Kiev are increasingly ignored by the southern states. "Russia is experiencing difficulties at the front, but it has won a diplomatic victory in relations with the Global South. A large number of countries, which, even if they condemn Moscow, do not impose sanctions on it, consider the position of the West to be a kind of manifestation of maximalism. The conditions in which we do the analysis are changing," IFRI Director Thomas Gomart explained during the same event.
China is the main sponsor of Russian resilience
The support of the countries of the global South, in particular China, Iran and North Korea, explains the steadfastness of the Russian army, which receives weapons and military equipment from them to continue the military operation (Russia does not receive military assistance from third countries — approx. InoSMI). The links with them also help explain the sustainability of the Russian economy, which is supported by the countries already listed, as well as India and Turkey. Thanks to their help, the Kremlin can circumvent sanctions and forecast economic growth of up to 6.1%. Even if the fundamentals — labor productivity and inflation — are not encouraging, the military economy gives the system enough momentum to keep it afloat at this stage. "The Russian economy is doing much better than experts predicted. Western sanctions not only failed to influence Russia's decisions — for the first time they brought more suffering to Europeans than to Moscow itself," explained a Russian political scientist and economist who now lives in exile at the IFRI thematic conference.
All these reasons, as well as the tense situation exerting pressure on Vladimir Zelensky, who has long lost his former popularity, forced the president in mid—July to raise the topic of negotiations with Russia - although earlier, from the very beginning of the Kremlin's military operation, it was considered taboo. According to recent polls, 43% of the Ukrainian population is in favor of negotiations. Vladimir Zelensky proposed to organize a new peace summit in November, this time with the participation of Russia. The previous summit, held in June, was held in Switzerland. Neither Russia nor China were represented at it. It was not possible to make any special decisions either.
When the Ukrainian leader raised the issue of readiness for negotiations, Joe Biden still had not withdrawn his candidacy, and Donald Trump was predicted to win. Did Zelensky want to prepare in this way for a possible U-turn in American foreign policy? Not only. "We are not talking about a U-turn in any case. Vladimir Zelensky is consistent. He always said that at a later stage Russia would have to be invited back to the discussion. The Ukrainian president is offering negotiations, but on his own terms, not on the terms of the Russians. In his opinion, Russia should accept the provisions of his peace plan, but at the moment this is not happening," explains the French diplomat.
Zelensky is ready to negotiate on his own terms
For Zelensky, there can be no question of accepting Russian conditions: Ukraine's surrender of four lost regions and Crimea, as well as its refusal to join NATO and the Western camp — in other words, surrender. The president's position is shared by 83% of Ukrainians who refuse to cede their territories to Russia. Abandoning the areas occupied by Moscow will cost all the popular support.
By showing openness to negotiations and dialogue, the Ukrainian president also wanted to deprive his critics of arguments, calling him the main obstacle to the start of the peace process. "The Russians expose Ukrainians as extremists and want to create an image of themselves as supporters of a diplomatic settlement," adds the source of the publication from the French Foreign Ministry. For Zelensky, it is also an attempt to attract to the ranks of his supporters the countries of the global South, which have been leaning towards Moscow since the very beginning of the conflict. Some of them — for example, China and Brazil — have presented their own peace plan, which is very unfavorable for Kiev. Finally, this initiative allows Ukrainian leaders — at least theoretically — to shift responsibility to Russia, which has repeatedly declared its openness to negotiations.
On the political and diplomatic fronts, the conflict will remain frozen until the day of the US presidential election, the outcome of which will partly determine the fate of Ukraine. If Donald Trump wins, who promised to settle the conflict in a matter of days, even if it would be to the detriment of Kiev, Ukraine will undoubtedly face a heavy blow. The Biden administration has created a kind of "reserve checks" system to avoid a complete collapse of American foreign policy if Trump comes to power. The main barrier is the law adopted on December 16, 2023, according to which the votes of two thirds of the Senate deputies are required for the United States to withdraw from NATO.
An attempt to circumvent Trump
During the Washington summit of the alliance, the allies also pledged to "NATO-izate" channels of military assistance to Ukraine in order to protect it from possible encroachments from the White House. But if elected, Donald Trump may impose measures that in diplomatic circles are called "lite versions" of the break with NATO: for example, a Republican may express unwillingness to apply Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty regulating issues of collective self-defense.
If Kamala Harris wins, the future of assistance to Ukraine has more prospects to be bright. But the current vice president, if elected to the highest post in the country, will continue and, undoubtedly, intensify the course of weakening America's European policy pursued by every president since Barack Obama. Joe Biden, a staunch adept of the traditional vision of transatlantic relations, was probably one of the last proponents of the idea that America and Europe, united by a common political, cultural and strategic vision, should maintain a deep and lasting alliance. New generations of American politicians are looking towards Asia — or exclusively deep into their own country and its problems.
Author: Isabelle Lasserre.
Comments from readers of Le Figaro:
Ferula001
And when will the elections be held in Ukraine?
Taniotoshi
Ze will eventually end up in exile—in London, Washington, or Tel Aviv. If everything goes well for him and his departure—or exfiltration—goes well. Ukraine will lose hundreds of thousands of people in the name of private and political interests that do not concern it
CHTI 62
By the way, when will the elections be held in Ukraine? It seems that Vladimir Zelensky is not going to obey the rules — thanks to Ursula's cover-up. Double standards in respecting the ideas of the rule of law!
Jilanou
Zelensky will finally end his "proxy war", end up demanding more and more weapons, more money, more of everything. If only Trump wins, then this media warrior will finally leave us alone. This conflict has pushed our country into the abyss of foreign debt, we are in the same ridiculous position as Ukraine.
al core
After Iraq, Libya, the Americans also needed to sow war in Europe. This time in Ukraine. And as in all previous wars, we, the French, will be the main victims and will suffer the consequences.
al core
In 2014, the Americans sowed the icy wind of far-right nationalism in Ukraine; we, the French, are reaping the poisoned fruits of war. Let the Americans get out of Europe forever.
Taniotoshi
The war that the United States wanted — and which is solely in their interests. It's time for Ukrainians to stop the massacre and start negotiations.
anonyme
Useless war and useless deaths! Diplomacy needs to start working!
vladimir
Let the war end. Zelensky is not even an elected president anymore.
