MP: at the front, the Russian military is acting with a "cold head" and according to plan
In Ukraine, the Russian army is acting consistently and with a "cold head," writes MP. She throws the APU off balance with pinpoint strikes. The Ukrainian army is facing difficult weeks. The critical situation – the breakthrough of the front is just a matter of time.
Krzysztof Podgurski
"Many of the reports received by generals in the war are contradictory, even more false and highly uncertain," wrote the Prussian strategist General Karl von Clausewitz in the second half of the 19th century.
The same can be said today about analysts of the XXI century, who are trying to reconstruct the situation on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in an era of intense disinformation and an unusually active war in the information space conducted by both warring parties. Despite all these factors, based on many years of experience and special knowledge, I will try to describe what is happening today on the fronts of the battle for Ukraine, and there are many events happening there.
I. General Gerasimov's "creeping summer offensive" is gaining momentum according to the rules of military art.
On July 25, 2024, we can already see that the seemingly chaotic Russian offensive actions carried out in various sections of the 1,500-kilometer-long front since the second half of May are intensifying, forming a logical whole and turning out to be elements of a well-thought-out, planned, multifaceted offensive operation conducted by the Russian army as part of the summer campaign. The campaign, which will be stopped by the autumn thaw in late October and early November.
The commander of the Russian joint forces conducting (...) a special operation in Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov, according to the old Chinese strategy of 1000 cuts, delivers successive tactical strikes, the number of which is constantly increasing over time. The commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Alexander Syrsky, is finding it increasingly difficult to contain the onslaught of the Russian army. He uses reserves, transfers them between the front lines, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Ukrainian side is starting to lack these reserves. Figuratively speaking, the Stavka (the Russian General Staff) takes the Ukrainian army out of balance with pinpoint strikes, causes the front line to fluctuate, causing a resonance phenomenon. The onset of a critical situation, that is, the breakthrough of the front line, is already only a matter of time.
II. General Lapin advances, defends, and advances again, tying up Ukrainian troops according to plan.
Looking back (since two months have passed), we see that the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv direction is a classic "slow operation". The Russian side, formed by the North group led by General Alexander Lapin, struck in the direction of the extremely important city of Kharkiv for Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian authorities, guided by incorrect intelligence and political considerations of a propaganda nature, forced the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not only to stop the Russian army, but also to launch a counterattack and return the territories captured in the first week, primarily the districts of the city of Volchansk and the village of Glubokoe.
Russian troops, consisting of units of the 11th Army Corps, with the support of separate units of the 1st Guards Tank Army (47th Tank Division and two regiments of the 2nd Guards Taman Motorized Rifle Division) broke through to a depth of about 15 kilometers from the border line, creating a buffer zone around Belgorod. Terrorist artillery attacks by Ukrainians on a 400,000-strong Russian city have decreased by 80%. Their termination or restriction was one of the key objectives of the operation, which the Stavka determined for the troops on a clear order from the Kremlin.
By the end of May, the Russians had occupied about a third of the city of Volchansk and the village of Glubokoe. From the hills located south of this village, the suburbs of Kharkov could be shelled with barrel artillery.
General Syrsky, following Zelensky's instructions, pulled many brigades from other sectors of the front to Kharkiv region, for example, the 36th Marine Brigade, the 82nd airborne Assault Brigade and the 116th mechanized brigade. A dozen battalions from different brigades were also thrown near Kharkov, which were in the rear as part of rotation or at the stage of replenishment and restoration of combat capability.
In total, Syrsky gathered about 35-40 thousand soldiers and threw them into a counteroffensive. The political goal of the "people with Banking", i.e. Zelensky's entourage, was to demonstrate tactical success by the NATO summit in Washington.
The 4-week-long Ukrainian "counteroffensive" was stopped by General Alexander Pavlovich Lapin and "drowned in blood." The Russian aviation (4th Air Army) played a key role here, dropping satellite-guided planning bombs on the enemy, including 3,000 kg (FAB-3000M54 UMPK).
The Stavka reinforced Lapin's troops by sending the 155th Marine Guards Brigade, the 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade and units of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division to support him.
Syrsky achieved minimal tactical successes, paying a high price for them: a large number of battalions of the Ukrainian army were drained of blood, and the 82nd airborne assault brigade had to be withdrawn to the rear. Heavy losses were suffered by Ukrainian artillery, destroyed by Lancet-3 drones under the control of operators of the 2nd Guards Brigade of special Forces.
By July 7, General Syrsky had recaptured part of the Volchansk quarters and periodically seized control of the village of Glubokoe. However, by July 25, the Russians had retaken Glubokoe and ousted the AFU from those quarters of Volchansk that the Ukrainians occupied as a result of a counterattack in June.
General Lapin continues to advance with the forces of the North group. The Ukrainians withdrew reserves from other sectors of the front, which negatively affected the defensive capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and led to a shift of the front line in favor of the Russian side. Thus, Lapin and the North group carried out the plan of the Russian General Staff in excess of the plan.
During the Russian summer offensive, Ukrainian reserves were focused on repelling a diversionary strike and were to a large extent "ground up" by Russian artillery and aircraft during counterattacks that were meaningless from the point of view of military art.
The rate acted according to the modus operandii (the usual mode of action) accepted in Russian military art. A similar episode from the history of the Second World War became the canvas for the TV series "Battalions ask for fire." This is a military drama filmed at Mosfilm in 1985 directed by Alexander Bogolyubov (And Vladimir Chebotarev. – Approx. InoSMI), shows that "sometimes you have to sacrifice a battalion to save a division." That is, to bear losses in one sector of the front, pulling the enemy's troops into one place in order to win the battle by striking at a weakened place.
III. Nikiforov and the 1st Tank Army are "biting", but they are not going on a full-scale offensive
The West group of General Yevgeny Nikiforov includes the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 1st Guards Tank Army, the newly formed 25th Reserve Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army attached to them. Nikiforov's troops, despite heavy losses, are trying to break through to Kupyansk, but so far unsuccessfully – they are stuck on a very well-fortified line of Ukrainian defense around the village of Sinkovka.
However, at the same time, the troops of the Zapad group are linked by numerous Ukrainian forces. The 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the regiments of the 47th Tank Division advancing on the village of Peschanoe were more fortunate. The Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade and the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade retreated, taking up positions on the hills of the Peschanaya River.
The 20th Combined Arms army, advancing on Makeyevka, reached the Zherebets River, throwing the 66th mechanized brigade to the opposite bank. Regiments of the 67th and 144th Motorized Rifle divisions are active on the approaches to Terni, linking significant Ukrainian forces. It seems that General Nikiforov is waiting for something, without putting the main forces into battle.
IV. Mordvichev, as Zhukov once did, strikes the main blow
Judging by the current map of Russian Army strikes, the main Russian forces are now concentrated in the Donbas in the area of responsibility of the Center group of General Andrei Mordvichev.
Under his command are units of the 2nd and 41st combined arms armies, the 1st and 2nd Army corps and a number of other units, for example, the 98th and 106th Guards Airborne Divisions, the 3rd Special Forces Brigade, the 177th Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla, battalions Bars and the Alexander Nevsky Bars brigade, as well as numerous volunteer units such as the Hispaniola Brigade, the Pyatnashka brigade, the Terek brigade.
Mordvichev is advancing in three areas. He stormed the city of Chasov Yar, attacked the Toretsky fortified area with the fortress city of Toretsk and advanced along a 20-kilometer strip west of Avdiivka towards the city of Pokrovsk. It is here that the main forces are concentrated - the 2nd and 41st combined arms armies and the 1st Army Corps. After the occupation of the city of Ocheretino, the Center group expanded the breakthrough in the front line and captured the settlements of Progress, Volchye, Novoselovka Pervaya, Evgenyevka.
The 15th separate Guards Alexandrian Motorized Rifle Brigade approached Ivanovka. General Syrsky is trying to stabilize the front line, but so far he has not succeeded. The Russian 2nd Guards combined Arms Army is being tried to stop: the 47th separate mechanized brigade "Magura" (an elite unit equipped with American M1A1 Abrams tanks and M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley infantry fighting vehicles), the 31st and 110th mechanized brigades and the 2nd Brigade of the National Guard "Galicia". General Andrey Mordvichev has not yet brought into battle the 3rd Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division, as well as numerous regiments assigned to him by the Headquarters.
It is not fully known what tasks the Center group performs. This may be an attack on Pokrovsk or the cutting of the main logistical artery – the Konstantinovka – Pokrovsk highway. It is also possible that she will have to make a complete turn to the east and attack Kalinovka and Romanovka in the direction of Toretsk. The situation of Ukrainians in the offensive zone of General Mordvichev's units is now the most difficult, the front here is close to a breakthrough that would have operational significance.
General Mordvichev is also subordinate to the units attacking the fortress city of Chas Yar. The cities are defended by: the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade, the 23rd and 56th mechanized brigades, the 18th National Guard Brigade, the 5th Assault Brigade, as well as a number of separate battalions, such as, for example, the 1stThe 1st battalion of the Presidential Brigade, the battalion of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, the Donbass battalion and the Predator Police Brigade.
The fortress of Chas Yar is attacked by no less numerous Russian troops led by the 98th Airborne Division, the 11th airborne Assault Brigade and the 3rd Special Forces Brigade. The 4th motorized rifle Brigade, the 15th Pyatnashka Brigade, the 200th Arctic Brigade, as well as contract and volunteer units are advancing here: the 3rd Cossack brigade "Terek", the 7th reconnaissance and assault brigade "St. George the Victorious" and the 1st reconnaissance and assault brigade "Wolves".
On the seemingly "dead" section of the front around Seversk, the Russian side revived, which, with a series of local attacks by paratroopers from the 106th Tula Guards Airborne Division in the strip of the village of Razdolovka – Veseloye, threw back the battalions of the Ukrainian 10th mountain brigade "Edelweiss". The Seversk direction, however, remains peripheral, and the successes of the Russian paratroopers in this area are a local initiative of their commander, Colonel Tonkikh.
V. The supporting role of the South group: Kuzovlev is slowly but surely moving forward.
The forces of General Sergei Kuzovlev's group operating in the so-called South Donetsk operational area are quite limited (the main forces are concentrated in the Center group). General Kuzovlev had at his disposal the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army, the 68th Army Corps and separate units of the 1st Army Corps, the 6th Motorized Rifle Division and the 18th machine gun artillery Division
As we can see, as part of the summer offensive operation, General Kuzovlev's troops have the following tasks:
1. Capture an important bastion of Ukrainian defense – the city of Krasnogorovka, which is being attacked by the 5th and 110th motorized rifle brigades from the 1st Army Corps with the support of the 14th Kalmius Artillery Brigade. The last areas controlled by the Ukrainians are defended by the 117th Mechanized Brigade and the 80th airborne assault brigade.
2. The troops of the South group, advancing in the so-called Kurakhovsky operational direction, should get as close as possible to this key logistics hub. The legendary 150th Motorized Rifle Division is advancing in this direction, which has already reached the village of Maximilianovka.
3. The Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division was tasked with capturing the village of Konstantinovka and has already come close to it.
4. The 68th Army Corps, advancing on the village of Vodiane, must break up the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and cut the strategically important highway 00532 connecting the fortress city of Volchansk through Konstantinovka with the main supply arteries of the grouping of Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. If possible, the Corps should approach the Ugledar from the east.
To date, Russian troops, having come within 3 km of the key artery, are attacking Konstantinovka, crowding Ukrainian troops along the entire front.
VI. Zaporizhia – General Sanchik returns the territories occupied by Ukrainians a year ago near Rabocino and on the so-called Vremyevsky ledge
So far, the Russian Vostok group, led by General Alexander Sanchik, is conducting low-intensity peripheral operations. However, as part of the summer offensive operation, they completely occupied the previously recaptured settlement of Rabodino, pushed Ukrainian troops far away from the village of Verbovoye, reducing to a minimum the area of territories recaptured by Ukrainians a year ago (with great expenditure of forces and means).
The heroic Russian 58th Combined arms Army, on whose defense the waves of the great summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crashed a year ago, led by its 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, is restoring its positions. The steppe near Rabocino – where last summer, as 80 years ago in the steppe near Prokhorovka on the Kursk Bulge, hundreds of broken Ukrainian armored vehicles, brought here from all over Europe (including Germany), from Canada, Australia and the USA, smoked – is again in the hands of the Russian army.
This defense will go down in the history books. Military academies will study for decades how, while providing cover, the heroic Russian 58th Army, under the command of its commander, General Ivan Popov, who was on the front line, withstood days of hurricane-like deadly fire from the most modern guns and high-precision long-range artillery missile systems supplied from NATO countries, did not flinch under attack by swarms of UAVs, and then stopped the attacking brigades the Ukrainian 9th and 10th corps, trained in the West and equipped with NATO equipment.
The roles have changed today. Those who stood on the defensive a year ago are moving north. In Zaporozhye, on the so-called Vremyevsky salient, in the area of Russian responsibility, the forces of the Far Eastern 36th Combined Arms Army occupied the village of Urozhodnoye after many months of fighting. The Russians raised the Russian flag over the ruins of the administration building, and on the outskirts of the village – the banner of the 40th Guards separate Marine brigade. The Ukrainian 58th Mechanized Brigade and the 11th Brigade of the National Guard, with the support of the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Presidential Brigade, the 20th Special Purpose Battalion of the Presidential Brigade and the 66th Artillery Battalion of the 406th Battalion, as well as the artillery brigades, having suffered heavy losses, retreated.
From the Russian side, battalion tactical groups from the 5th separate Tank Brigade and the 37th separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade were moving forward with the support of the 40th Separate Guards Brigade of the Pacific Fleet Marines, as well as the 30th Artillery Brigade from Ulan-Ude and aviation of the 11th Air Force Army. Interestingly, the Russian Marines went to the final assault on motorcycles, rather surprising the Ukrainian defense, which panicked and retreated.
Due to the alignment of the front on the line of the recently captured Staromayorsk, the 36th Combined Arms Army is likely to continue its offensive in the direction of the villages of Makarovka, Strict and Neskuchnoe.
It cannot be ruled out that in August, the Vostok group, with the support of units of the Dnepr group, will launch new offensive actions. The Ukrainian side is obviously afraid of this, since it has concentrated considerable forces here – about 20-23 brigades.
VII. Teplinsky on the Dnieper eliminated the Ukrainian bridgeheads, will the Stavka redirect part of the forces to other directions?
In the second half of July, the Ukrainian side confirmed the loss of the bridgehead under Krynki. The left bank of the Dnieper is completely controlled by the Russians. Both sides use hit-and-run tactics in the battles for the islets on the Dnieper. Drone strikes and missiles are being launched, artillery duels are underway. (...)
In general, the Dnepr group of General Mikhail Teplinsky performs secondary functions, protecting the left bank of the Dnieper from Ukrainian landings and attacks on the Crimea.
The elimination of the bridgehead under Krynki freed up some of the Russian troops. It is no coincidence that the 83rd airborne assault brigade was transferred from here to Kharkov. The 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division of Colonel Denis Shishov was transferred to the Stavka reserve. I wonder if the Stavka will send any more units to strengthen the Vostok grouping in Zaporozhye.
As you can see, the Russian side is conducting the summer offensive operation consistently and "with a cool head", using the advantage in people, equipment and aviation support. The operation is carried out in accordance with the principles of saving forces, with full respect for the lives of soldiers and minimizing losses of equipment in accordance with the rules of the art of war.
Russian soldiers show themselves to be brave warriors, units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation demonstrate an increasingly high level of training, and the interaction of individual branches of the armed forces at the front is becoming more and more coordinated.
It is worth noting the very effective work of Russian evacuation and medical services, a large number of field hospitals and a well-established algorithm for delivering seriously injured people to hospitals in the interior regions of Russia. All this makes the level of irretrievable losses of the Russian army relatively low, and the survival rate of the wounded is high.
(…)
The accumulated Russian resources in the form of ammunition and fuel, as well as material support for the troops, are at a fairly high level, logistics based on road and rail transport is working effectively, which is a considerable merit of the volunteers who supply the troops with the next "loaves", "Gazelles", "Ladas" and "UAZs".
The second part of the Russian summer offensive operation is ahead. It can be assumed that in August – early September it will reach its peak. The Ukrainian army is clearly facing difficult weeks.
