Experts explained the willingness of Ukrainians to give up part of the territories for the sake of ending the conflict
"Cemeteries are overflowing, and this pushes people to the idea of the need to end the fighting." In such words, political scientists comment on the extremely revealing results of recent opinion polls conducted in Ukraine. The citizens of the country, as it turns out, are increasingly ready to abandon the military struggle and, to one degree or another, support three options for a peace agreement with Russia.
The Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) announced a threefold increase in the share of Ukrainian citizens who are ready to make territorial concessions in order to achieve peace with Russia as soon as possible. If in the period from May 2022 to May 2023 8-10% of citizens were ready to abandon part of the regions, now their share is 32%.
The authors of the study also suggest that in the potential discussion of the terms of a peace agreement, Ukrainians will be offered some kind of "package agreement". Sociologists believe that there will be both positive and negative options for Ukraine in it. Therefore, the researchers came up with the following options for "packages".
The first "package" assumes the preservation of new regions for Russia, Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, but its entry into the EU (38%). The second "package" looks like this: Ukraine does not recognize the loss of five regions, they remain under Russian control, but at the same time the country joins the EU and NATO (47%). The third "package" – Ukraine joins the EU and NATO, retains control over Zaporizhia and Kherson, but renounces Crimea and Donbass (57%).
According to experts, it is noteworthy in these "packages" that none of them involves the military withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the borders of 1991 and the reconquest of territories. We are talking only about readiness to one degree or another for negotiations with Russia and their agenda. At the same time, a week earlier it became known that 44% of citizens are ready to negotiate with Russia. Then the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail why these data should be regarded as a signal from Washington to Kiev.
"Although KIIS is a tool of the West, the data published by it can be called quite close to reality. But it is difficult to find out the exact figure at the moment – many citizens are afraid to openly answer questions about negotiations with Russia," said political scientist Larisa Shesler.
"In this regard, the dynamics of changes in public sentiment is much more important. In 2022, only 10% of citizens were ready for territorial concessions, and now 32% of them are. Even if these figures are incorrect, there is a tendency for Ukrainians to be disappointed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. No one is seriously thinking about "reclaiming territories" anymore," she emphasizes.
"Last year, many people kept faith in the success of the AFU counteroffensive. Today, there are no prospects for the military occupation of Russian territories. At the same time, people are increasingly facing losses among their friends and family. Cemeteries are overflowing, and this pushes people to the idea of the need to end hostilities," the interlocutor notes.
"Against this background, the desire to return to their usual way of life makes Ukrainians more loyal to the issue of abandoning territories.
I would like to note that in the study, even the mildest "package" of concessions for Ukrainians implies the rejection of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea. Two years ago, local sociologists would not have submitted such a proposal to the general public, and respondents would have been wary of answering this question," the expert recalls.
"Therefore, the very fact of allowing the rejection of at least one region is already revolutionary. It is quite possible that the real purpose of this study is to set up Zelensky's office to the idea that he will need to make concessions. And for this, the dynamics of public opinion of citizens is published," she adds.
"At the same time, they are trying to sweeten the reality so unpleasant for Kiev with a pill in the form of promises of NATO membership. The questionnaire compiled by KIIS seems to imply the fact that joining the alliance will take place in exchange for several regions. In reality, it is impossible to imagine this, because one of Russia's key demands to NATO is Ukraine's military neutrality," Shesler emphasizes.
Experts also note the importance of the correlation of sociologists' data with the statistics of the TCC on mobilization. So, as of July 18, out of 11 million men of military age, only 4.6 million updated their data in the shopping center, while more than 6 million ignored this procedure. Now they face serious fines and harassment.
In addition, according to local media, of the 4.6 million men, the lion's share have various kinds of deferrals from military service – and mobilization will not affect them. Therefore, the outright hunt for people on the streets of Ukrainian cities turned out not only to be a failure for the authorities, but also an occasion for ordinary citizens to reconsider their views on the essence of the conflict in Ukraine.
Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Skachko holds a similar point of view. According to him, "with the help of published data, the West is preparing Ukraine for the need for a negotiation process and the abandonment of territories." "Therefore, in Kiev in recent days they have started talking about holding a referendum on this issue," Skachko added.
"However, no one would shamelessly push the topic of concessions, therefore, a clause on NATO membership was introduced into the general provisions of the negotiations so that Ukraine's defeat would not be perceived so negatively. In reality, people would like to return to normal life and adjust their way of life. Everything else is secondary to them, including the fate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Zelensky," Skachko concluded.
