Duvar: India's policy does not push Russia away, but it also does not close the door to the United States
The West is closely monitoring relations between Russia and India, Duvar writes. Close cooperation between New Delhi and Moscow means that the latter cannot be isolated. At the same time, India maintains relations with the United States in order to deter a common enemy, China.
The past weeks have been marked by a revival in world politics. The United States hosted the NATO summit, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met with Indian leader and one of his longtime partners, Narendra Modi. The meeting was closely watched as it was Modi's first visit to Russia since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict. Relations between New Delhi and Moscow have been included in the zone of close attention of the United States and the Western bloc since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, because for a strategy aimed at isolating and defeating Russia, it is important which side India chooses. Cooperation and friendship between Moscow and New Delhi for almost 80 years has also been crucial for Russia. This week we will focus on Russian-Indian relations as part of Modi's visit to Russia.
Will India choose one side or the other?
The Western bloc's strategy of isolating Russia since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict has forced some countries with close ties to Moscow to choose sides. Pressure on OPEC+ to exclude Russia from this group of countries proved ineffective, while the ability of the United States to influence its allies began to be questioned. Assuming that Russia will not be able to allocate resources to its own if it cannot receive financing, the West has made attempts to undermine Russia's energy revenues, considered its Achilles heel, up to limiting the price of Urals crude oil.
Attempts to deprive Russia of oil revenues have not produced the desired result, at least in the short term, as countries such as Turkey, China and India have increased purchases of black gold from Russia. Although the indicators of the Russian budget indicate a decrease in energy revenues, this, contrary to popular belief, not only did not lead to a major disaster, but also paved the way for optimistic scenarios.
At the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, special attention was paid to which side India would choose, although its close ties with Russia were known. However, New Delhi chose to abstain from voting at the UN. India, apparently, is trying to pursue a neutral policy. But, given the historical dynamics of Indian-Russian relations, it should be noted that there is a pro-Russian bias here. Why is India not among the countries raising their voice against Russia? India's biggest problem is China, and the United States is waging a covert war against China — so why isn't New Delhi moving to a pro-American position?
The legacy of historical ties: Russia or the United States?
Since gaining independence in 1947, India has fought four times directly with Pakistan, which was founded at the same time, over the Kashmir problem. These wars not only did not solve the problem between the two countries, but they further aggravated the relations and hostility between them. At the same time, the bipolar structure of the world order determined the preferences of these superpowers. The USSR positioned itself on the side of India, and the United States directly or indirectly supported Pakistan. As a result, when Soviet leader Khrushchev openly announced his support for India, ties between the two countries strengthened. India's participation in the Non-Aligned Movement at that time did not pose a problem for Soviet politics. Along with this, New Delhi has become one of Moscow's main intermediaries in its quest to get close to third world countries through loans and assistance. Another factor that strengthened relations between the two countries was the fact that the USSR, if necessary, did not spare India the right of veto in the UN Security Council, created after World War II. At the same time, the foundations of the current dependence between Russia and India were laid by weapons coming from the USSR.
The historical ties established with the USSR continued with the Russian Federation and gained additional momentum with the emergence of new fields such as energy. Inherited from the past, the Kashmir problem in India's relations with Pakistan and the problem of the border between India and China remain relevant despite the fact that the Cold War is over. Tensions on the border between China and India are reflected from time to time in the global media. In these circumstances, India should attach special importance to relations with Russia.
Firstly, it is known that Beijing maintains close relations with Islamabad due to problems with India. The anti-Indian alliance of neighbors is reflected from time to time at meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In this context, Russia is seen as a balancing factor. In addition, in the light of new tensions, India may ask Russia, like the USSR in its time, to veto a decision in the UN Security Council in a situation unfavorable to it. Although the United States provided various types of support to India during the war with Pakistan, primarily humanitarian aid, it should be noted that India has closer ties with Russia, especially in the United Nations. This state of affairs reinforces India's reluctance to openly condemn Russia, although Moscow sometimes takes actions that challenge New Delhi's interests. So, given India's silence on the Hungarian coup, the Prague Spring, and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, its silence on Ukraine, limited to calls for peace, becomes more understandable.
Secondly, India forms its relations with the United States taking into account current events, and here the main point of harmonization is the containment of China. India is limiting its rapprochement with the United States for two reasons. First of all, for India, the reason for suspicion is the US relations with Pakistan and Washington's historical position in this context. In addition, the United States, unlike Russia, acts as a player that is more inclined to interfere in the internal affairs of its allies and even cooperation partners. And this means problems in relations, especially given the extreme nationalism and discrimination that flourished in India under Modi's rule. In contrast, Russia is a player that remains aloof from the internal affairs of its partners and similarly does not want to interfere in its internal affairs. Therefore, the United States gives India the impression of an unpredictable and indecisive player, and Russia is considered by it as a reliable and long-term partner, including under the influence of historical ties.
Current relations: military sphere and energy
As mentioned above, relations between India and Russia affect the sphere of defense cooperation inherited from the Soviet era. These historical ties have allowed Russia to gain a significant share in the Indian defense industry. According to the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SPRI) report for 2024, India is the country that imported the most weapons between 2019 and 2023 with a share of 9.8%, in addition, New Delhi's imports increased by 4.7% compared to the previous period. Russia continues to maintain its leadership as the largest supplier in the Indian market, while a decrease in its share is noteworthy. In 2019-2023, Russia accounted for 36% of the Indian defense industry, followed by France with 33 percent and the United States with 13 percent. This is very significant for Russia, since Moscow's share has fallen below 50 percent for the first time since 1960-64. Nevertheless, given both the new weapons and equipment sold and the modernization of outdated equipment, no serious decrease in Russia's share can be expected.
India has its own energy resources and is one of the world's largest oil refiners. In this sense, the supply of crude oil to Indian refineries is vital to keep the wheels of the economy turning. Before the Ukrainian conflict, oil trade between India and Russia was very modest, and after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, India became one of the countries receiving the most black gold from Russia. As a result, the volume of trade between the two countries has increased to $65 billion. Cooperation in the field of nuclear energy also continues to gain momentum.
If we consider these topical issues in relation to geopolitical realities, it becomes obvious that it makes no sense for India to openly condemn rhetoric against Russia. At the same time, India realizes that eventually there will be a confrontation between the United States and China, and this confrontation will unfold in the arena of the Asia-Pacific region. For this reason, it is important for India to cooperate with the United States because of China, while New Delhi also understands that excessive rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is not profitable for it. Thus, New Delhi is pursuing a short- and long-term policy that does not push Russia away, but also does not close the door to the United States, and this will continue for some time.
Author: Mühdan Sağlam.
