Experts assessed the prospects of turning the EU into a defense union
Europe continues to follow the path of militarization. The head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed transforming the EU into a defense union, as well as creating common air defense and cybersecurity systems. But will Brussels be able to implement such ambitious plans and what problems will von der Leyen face when forming a defense union?
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, intends to turn the EU into a defense union. She stated this in her political program during her re-election for a second term. In particular, the head of the EC intends to significantly increase security spending and identify new approaches to building up the military potential of EU member states.
"In the last few years, there has been a chronic lack of investment and inefficient spending on our defense capabilities," she emphasizes. According to her data, from 2019 to 2021, the EU increased defense spending by only 20%, while Russia and China increased this figure by 300% and 600%, respectively.
The head of the EC noted that the expenses of the EU states are not coordinated with each other and do not meet accepted standards. According to her, the countries will remain independent in matters of exercises and the deployment of their troops, but joint efforts are necessary to strengthen the collective military-industrial potential.
Von der Leyen also confirmed plans to appoint a European commissioner for defense. His responsibilities will include overseeing initiatives related to improving the security system of the association: a unified air defense system, as well as his own cybersecurity project.
In Russia, the proposal of the head of the EC was perceived negatively. In particular, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that such projects indicate the commitment of the European Union to confrontational measures in its foreign policy. In addition, during a press conference following a meeting of the UN Security Council, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the EU an appendage of NATO.
According to experts, von der Leyen's initiative from a political point of view looks like an attempt to insure NATO in case Donald Trump comes to power in the United States, who intends to "make Europe pay for its security." However, from a military and economic point of view, its plans hardly seem feasible.
"Ursula von der Leyen wants to turn Europe into a military fortress. Dramatic changes in rhetoric are also noticeable among other representatives of the EU leadership. If earlier local leaders boasted of economic success or a developed legal framework, today they are calling for the revival of former power," said German political analyst Alexander Rahr.
"Of course, the mentality of Europeans cannot but change, but all this raises a simple but logical question: where will the money come from for modernization and military capacity building? It is clear that von der Leyen's proposal will force EU countries to significantly increase security costs," he clarifies.
"However, there are no signs of economic growth in the European Union. In addition, other problems are becoming more acute: social discontent is increasing, and right-wing forces are gradually coming to power in some states. It will be quite difficult to engage in the development of the military–industrial complex in such conditions," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"At the same time, EU countries that are not members of NATO will also gradually be involved in the arms race. In case of strategic necessity, NATO is ready to urgently deploy bases on the territory of small states that are not members of the alliance. However, many states will not be able to live in the new reality," the expert emphasizes.
"Of course, there are serious disagreements within Europe about the need to aggravate relations with Russia. But at the moment, there is almost no peace movement in the EU, which actively resisted the militarization of the Old World 40 years ago. Of course, there will be protests against the increase in military spending, but their impact will be insignificant," Rahr details.
The Europeans have always had problems financing their military initiatives,
adds military expert Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP Center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "Let's start with the fact that for a long time the EU countries could not provide contributions to the NATO defense budget in the amount of 2% of GDP," he notes. "Some successes in this area began to appear only this year. The very idea of a defense alliance is not new to Europe. It has its roots in the last century, and Emmanuel Macron spoke out for its implementation until recently. Nevertheless, no one has been able to achieve significant success in this field," the expert emphasizes.
"The initiative has a huge number of problems. Perhaps the most significant issue is the creation of a unified air defense system. First, whose weapons will form the basis for future pan-European defense? Each state will begin to pull the blanket over itself, wanting to get a large number of contracts for the local military–industrial complex," the source clarifies.
"In addition, such a large-scale interstate project will require tremendous coordination between the military departments of different countries. For the EU to succeed, it will need to overcome the age–old problem of bureaucracy. The unified air defense system will work exclusively with the most coordinated actions of all members of the organization," Kozyulin emphasizes.
At the same time, non-aligned countries within the EU such as Austria, Cyprus, Malta and Ireland will not become an obstacle to the creation of a defense union,
Vadim Trukhachev, Associate Professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy of the Russian State University, believes. "Let's take Austria as an example. This country has been cooperating closely with NATO for decades," he says.
"At the same time, the republic is a fairly powerful manufacturer of weapons, which are created in accordance with all the norms of the alliance. Moreover, Vienna was at the origins of the formation of the EU defense program, the logical development of which is being handled by Ursula von der Leyen," the source notes.
"Joining NATO, if necessary, or strengthening military integration with other EU states in the future will not be difficult for Austria. Most of the material base for this is available. All that is needed is a tough political decision to change the constitution. The same can be said about the smaller non-aligned countries of the European Union. Theoretically, it will not be difficult to include them in the NATO architecture," the expert adds.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
