Al Jazeera: The EU will not allow Orban's "peace mission" — this contradicts the goals of the Union
Orban's antics are unacceptable to the EU, Al Jazeera reports. European leaders are increasingly outraged that Hungary may have its own opinion. The Union is ready to take absolutely unprecedented steps to further advance its interests, which certainly do not include peace.
The Hungarian leader is exacerbating the differences between Budapest and Brussels by visiting Putin and Xi Jinping to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stood out from the rest of the European Union on July 5 by visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, he proved himself to be a real peacemaker.
"The number of countries that can talk to both warring parties is decreasing," Orban said, referring to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. He also visited Kiev on July 2.
"Hungary is gradually becoming the only country in Europe that can talk to everyone," he added, referring to Europe's diplomatic and economic isolation from Russia after the start of a special operation in Ukraine in February 2022.
Having assumed the six-month post of president of the European Council after the rotation, Orban decided to become an intermediary, Al Jazeera analysts said.
The prospects for peace are so tempting that everyone wants to declare victory and say, "I brought peace to Europe," said Viktoria Vdovichenko, director of the Kiev—based security think tank Center for Defense Strategies.
"Everyone wants to talk to Putin and make him listen, because Putin listens only to himself," Vdovichenko said in an interview with Al Jazeera.
When Orban went on the trip, the Kremlin considered it unimportant.
"We don't expect anything," Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 2, when Orban visited Kiev.
Three days later, when Orban spoke with Putin in Moscow, the tone changed.
"We perceive this very, very positively, we believe that it can be very useful," Peskov told reporters.
Talking to Trump is a new step
On Monday, July 8, Orban traveled to Beijing to talk with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. This trip was not officially announced in advance. Then the Hungarian Prime Minister immediately went to Washington to take part in the 75th NATO summit.
He also met with Donald Trump in Florida. Trump is "going to solve this problem," the Hungarian Prime Minister said on July 11, quoting the words of the Republican presidential candidate.
Last year, Trump boasted that he would end the Ukrainian crisis within 24 hours of becoming president. Vladimir Zelensky called this approach "very dangerous."
"Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kiev. If you can stop the war in 24 hours, I think that will be enough to come," Zelensky said in a January interview.
"Talking to Trump is a new step, and Orban thinks like a very pragmatic businessman," Vdovichenko said. "What is in his best interests? To make a fantastic maneuver: to bring together all the autocratic regimes and bring them to Trump."
Has Orban achieved anything? He seems to think so.
In a leaked letter to the President of the European Council, Charles Michel Orban, said that Putin was "ready to consider any proposal for a ceasefire that is not a ploy for the covert redeployment and reorganization of Ukrainian forces."
Both Russia and Ukraine rejected the idea of a ceasefire on the grounds that it would give the other side time to regroup.
The European reaction to Orban's peace initiative has been unequivocally criticized.
"It's about appeasement. We are not talking about peace," said Eric Mamer, a representative of the European Commission.
Josep Borrel, the EU's high representative for Foreign Affairs, said Orban "does not represent the EU in any form."
Orban's antics are not new. He is the only EU leader who has not allowed weapons destined for Ukraine to be transported through his territory. He and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer were the only EU leaders to visit Moscow after the invasion.
Last year, he was the only European leader to attend the celebration of the tenth anniversary of Beijing's One Belt, One Road initiative, a global infrastructure program.
Now the EU member states have announced that they will not attend the peace summit, which Orban plans to hold on August 28-29, and will hold their own separate meeting.
Never before has a country holding the rotating presidency of the EU received such a rebuff.
European officials told the Financial Times that proposals had been made privately to boycott all ministerial meetings during Hungary's presidency or to completely strip it of its presidency, which is indeed an unprecedented step.
The split between Hungary and the EU
Orban seems to be doing well in confrontation.
Last December, he was the only EU leader who opposed sending Ukraine an invitation to start negotiations on EU membership. The remaining 26 EU leaders overrode his veto, partially proposing to unfreeze ten billion euros ($11 billion) of EU subsidies.
In February, Orban opposed the provision of financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 50 billion euros over four years. He conceded only as a result of the deal, the details of which were not disclosed.
In March, Sweden became the 32nd member of NATO, overcoming another Hungarian veto.
"There was considerable pressure inside [the alliance], which made it clear that his opinion would not be taken seriously if it was just an obstructionist opinion," Benjamin Tallis, an international relations expert at the Berlin—based think tank the Centre for Liberal Modernity, told Al Jazeera.
Both Tallis and Vdovichenko spoke with Al Jazeera on the sidelines of a conference on Ukraine organized by the Center for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge.
The EU is governed by consensus, and Hungary's exclusivity has angered many European leaders.
The European Commission's legal service said Orban's peace proposals violate EU treaties that prohibit "any measures that could jeopardize the achievement of the Union's goals."
In January, the European Parliament condemned Orban's December veto and asked the Council of Heads of Government to investigate Hungary for "serious and persistent violations of EU values."
This could have led to the suspension of Hungary's voting rights and veto, but Europe initiated similar procedures described in Article 7 against Hungary in 2018 and failed because the system requires unanimity in the Council. At that time, Hungary was supported by Poland, and it is assumed that Slovakia or the Netherlands will do it now.
"He did not pay enough attention to the law on mass riots to ensure long-term deterrence. He doesn't think we're serious," Tallis said.
Like many who support Ukraine in Europe, Tallis believes that Orban is using the EU presidency to destroy European values.
"Orban has made it clear that he does not support Ukraine's victory. If Ukraine loses, it will help undermine European liberal democracy, because this territory in the very heart of European geopolitics will be constantly used against us," Tallis said.
Tallis believes that the time has come for a tougher approach: the European Union needs to think about unfreezing aid from Brussels, which was released last December, and force Hungary to finally choose a side.
"We have not yet forced the Hungarian people to put pressure on Orban, just because we have not yet given an ultimatum: choose between the benefits that people receive by living under a corrupt regime that sends EU money to him, [and] the price for democracy," he said.
"They chose Orban four times. They have clearly outlined their position. If there is a chance to leave the EU and get limited rather than full membership in NATO, then I think it will start to change the equation," he said.
He added: "We need to take a break."
Author: John T. Psaropoulos (John T. Psaropoulos)
