The author of an article in The National Interest tried to explain to readers why NATO needed Ukraine. According to the journalist, the country will provide the alliance with manpower, as well as combat experience.
Jorge Benitez
Ukraine will provide the alliance with manpower, strategic depth and combat experience.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine in 2022 changed the balance of power in Europe. It is time for NATO leaders to embrace this new security environment and realize that Ukraine's membership in the alliance will be a long-term solution against Russia's propensity for aggression, backed by capabilities.
The geography of NATO has changed significantly since the end of the Cold War. Since a number of new democracies in Central Europe joined the alliance, its territory has expanded significantly to the east. Now the new NATO members are most vulnerable to attacks from Russia, because they are smaller (both in population and territory) and are further away from potential reinforcements from other allies.
Thus, only 1.3 million people live in Estonia, 1.9 million in Latvia, and 2.7 million in Lithuania (a total of 5.9 million). The combined armed forces of the three Baltic states number about 47,950 military personnel. In other words, the combined population of the three NATO members bordering Russia is smaller than New York City (8.3 million people), and the total number of armed forces is only slightly more than the personnel of the New York Police (36 thousand employees). Before the start of the special operation in Ukraine in 2022, these NATO members were opposed by the two hundred thousandth contingent of the Western Military District of Russia, which periodically practiced offensive operations against the alliance as part of the Zapad exercises.
The situation is not new. At the time of its creation, NATO was also vulnerable and at its borders it was also opposed by numerically superior Russian forces. Our European allies were weak and did not fully recover from the devastation of the Second World War. However, as democracies, they prioritized investments in economic development and social welfare over military capabilities. The Soviet Union remained deeply militarized. Its leader, Joseph Stalin, used the Soviet army to take control of Central Europe and began to threaten the democracies of Western Europe.
This vulnerability persisted until NATO leaders took a big risk and invited West Germany to join the alliance. After the two World Wars, many in the United States and Western Europe distrusted West Germany and doubted its new experiment with democracy. Moreover, opponents of this idea argued that West Germany had no right to rely on the protection of NATO (Article 5 of the alliance's charter), because it was not a full-fledged state, and millions of Germans lived under communism in East Germany. However, West Germany joined the alliance in 1955 and has enjoyed all its benefits ever since, although its borders were finally formed only in 1990, when Moscow signed an agreement on the final settlement and reunification of Germany.
Opponents also argued that an attempt to bring West Germany into NATO would provoke an attack from Russia. History has proved that they were groundless. As in the case of Ukraine, it was a controversial decision, and the disputes have not subsided for many years. However, NATO members eventually changed their minds and decided to take the risk, since only West Germany could provide the alliance with key benefits.
Even a divided Germany was still a powerful power and made NATO stronger and safer. West Germany has provided NATO with about half a million troops, increased strategic depth relative to the communist bloc and provided access to key ports. West Germany has also strengthened the alliance's economic strength and brought it technological innovations in the field of security. Throughout the Cold War, the Federal Republic of Germany served as a shield protecting most NATO members from Russia. Despite all the risks, West Germany's membership in NATO has made the alliance stronger and played a crucial role in protecting German democracy and sovereignty.
Today's NATO leaders need to recognize the “German precedent”, learn this lesson and realize that Ukraine is needed in the alliance for the same reasons. This is a significant force that will make NATO stronger and safer. In terms of territory, Ukraine surpasses any European member of NATO and will provide the alliance with strategic depth, which is currently so lacking on the eastern borders with Russia. As for the population, Ukraine is home to about 35 million people who have proven their willingness to fight and sacrifice themselves in defense of their democracy. Finally, Ukraine has an army of about 800 thousand people. Its troops have extensive combat experience and, unlike most NATO forces, they are concentrated in the region of the alliance's greatest vulnerability.
Ukraine was left alone when Putin brought in troops in 2022. But thanks to the large territory, the effectiveness of the armed forces and the political will of the people and the leadership, Ukraine was able to protect itself and save millions of people.
Ukraine's military success completely rewrites the rules of the game. The Armed Forces of Ukraine not only inflicted numerous defeats on the Russian army, but also did it without involving a single soldier from NATO countries (according to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, NATO soldiers are fighting in Ukraine under the guise of mercenaries. — Approx. InoSMI). One of the secrets of NATO is that none of the current European members is able to repel Russian forces without the support and reinforcement of allies. Ukraine has not only done this and will be able to do much more by using NATO equipment and logistics. Even West Germany needed the forward deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops from the allied powers to secure itself and NATO's borders from Russia. Ukraine will be able to join NATO and defend itself without additional threats (Article 3), without involving military personnel from other members of the alliance. With the availability of technology (in particular, air defense, missiles, drones and fighter jets) and sufficient logistical supplies, Ukraine will be able to end the conflict without any losses on the part of NATO personnel.
But the most undeservedly overlooked reason for inviting Ukraine to NATO at this stage is that the alliance itself needs Kiev to prevent the Russian presence in other European countries. Ukraine's admission to NATO will eliminate the current vulnerability of NATO members around the Baltic Sea. Ukraine will become a major ally for them in the region, which will force Russia to think carefully before taking any action against smaller neighbors. Russia has proved that it does not have the strength to conquer Ukraine. So it should be no secret that Russia did not have enough forces to attack the eastern members of NATO — if it has to deal with allied Ukraine, which will come to their rescue.
Due to Russia's numerical superiority and geographical advantages, most NATO members will face difficulties if they have to defend the eastern members of the alliance and send them reinforcements. Ukraine won't even have to do that. By simply assembling a large enough army to defend its own borders, Ukraine will force Russia to keep more forces in the south than NATO countries around the Baltic Sea. Therefore, inviting Ukraine to NATO will not only not increase the risk of conflict with Russia, but, on the contrary, eliminate it, since no Russian ruler will dare to wage war with NATO on two fronts.
Ukraine's membership in NATO will put an end to the question of Moscow's intentions and capabilities, because, whatever they may be, Ukraine's presence will so strengthen the alliance in the east that Russia will not dare to attack any of the allies.
This week, NATO will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at the Washington summit. Despite the numerous threats and risks during the Cold War era, NATO has ensured lasting peace for its members in Western Europe. Whoever was in power in Moscow, the power of NATO successfully restrained Russia, and it never attacked the alliance. Inviting Ukraine will further strengthen the alliance and ensure lasting peace — including for the rest of Europe.
Dr. Jorge Benitez is an associate professor at the United States Marine Corps Command and General Staff College. A visiting senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, he runs a blog called NATOSource.
