FT: After the French elections, Europe lost its leader in an era of global threats
Europe has lost its leader in the era of global threats, writes the FT, commenting on the elections in France and Britain. According to him, the two countries "found themselves on a political swing — but at the same time they are swinging in the opposite phase," which is fraught with terrible consequences for the Old World.
The United Kingdom and France are both on a political swing — but they are swinging in the opposite direction. Three days after the British elected a pragmatic centrist government with a huge majority, France went to the opposite extreme. Sunday's legislative elections led to a “hung” parliament, with both the far right and the far left gaining strength.
In London, the period of political chaos that began back in 2016 with the sacramental Brexit vote may finally be over. In Paris, on the contrary, it is just beginning.
Even the relief that the far-right National Association performed worse than expected in the second round cannot hide the fact that the centrists' positions in French politics are melting, and with them the authority of President Emmanuel Macron. What a contrast between the calm in London on election night last week and the feverish atmosphere engulfing Paris on Sunday evening!
Alas, the political cycles of France and Great Britain are completely out of sync. Contrary to the long-standing instinct of rivalry, it makes sense for both countries to be at the same time and cooperate. These are neighbors and allied democracies with comparable populations. Both retain some symbols of great power, such as nuclear weapons and permanent membership in the UN Security Council, but do not have the economic power to maintain this status.
Both France and the UK have tried to play a leading role in international efforts to combat climate change. Both countries take the threat from Putin's Russia extremely seriously and strongly support Ukraine. In recent decades, France and Great Britain have also been the leading military powers in Europe, although this may change with time and the rearmament of Germany.
But Britain's real influence on the future of Europe was limited by Brexit, which eliminated London from the key political structures of Europe and left behind an atmosphere of distrust and systemic discord. Taking advantage of the absence of the British, Macron decided to outline his ambitious program for the future of the EU. But the French leader's claims to intellectual leadership in Europe are now certain to evaporate along with his domestic political mandate.
And yet, the international problems that Britain, France and Europe have already faced will probably only worsen next year. The conflict in Ukraine has reached an impasse, and anxiety over the prospect of a breakthrough by Russia is growing. A second Trump presidency will create clear risks for the NATO alliance and the international trading system. This, in turn, will endanger the very prosperity and security of Europe.
Theoretically, the answer to these common threats to France and the UK is self-evident.: This is closer cooperation and the pursuit of a vast European alliance to reduce the continent's vulnerability to an increasingly dangerous world around it.
In fact, recent policy changes in both the Fifth Republic and the United Kingdom will significantly complicate such cooperation. If the priorities of political radicals are reflected in French foreign policy, this will lead to an obvious contradiction with the views of the new Starmer government in the UK. Both the far left and the far right in Paris are much more sympathetic to Putin's Russia than Macron or Starmer himself.
Starmer's “green” internationalism is more in tune with the current policy of Germany's ruling coalition, which is led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz. Indeed, on the second day of his tenure, the new British Foreign Minister, David Lammy, went to Berlin, where he was received with warmth, to which his French counterpart was rather accustomed.
Starmer and Lammy have powerful pro—European instincts, although they have to take into account the fact that the UK has ceased to be a member of the EU - and the Labour government has vowed not to change this. Instead, their goal is to negotiate a new security pact with the EU, but at the same time interpret “security” as broadly as possible — so that it includes a whole range of topics such as energy, climate and key minerals. This, in turn, will be the lever that will open the door to more extensive cooperation with the EU in all areas, without touching on the sensitive — for all their importance — issues of Britain's membership in the EU single market or Customs Union.
Labour's ideas for closer cooperation between the EU and the UK were warmly welcomed during Lammy's trips to Germany, Poland and Sweden. But France's reaction to the Labour Party's proposal for a new security pact remains crucial. During the protracted Brexit negotiations, the French government decisively stopped the UK's attempts to choose the “most attractive moments of EU membership”, while rejecting the accompanying obligations.
Alas, France is about to withdraw into itself, and it may take many months before it has a government capable of giving a consistent answer to European questions. And this will be a problem not only for the UK, but for the entire EU.
The French election results also sent an intriguing signal about the upcoming U.S. presidential election: don't believe the opinion polls. All authoritative forecasts promised that the far right would become the largest bloc in the French parliament. However, the “National Association” Marine Le Pen was content with only third place. Maybe Donald Trump's consistent, albeit shaky, advantage is also not as reliable as it might seem?
Author: Gideon Rachman
Comments from FT readers:
Sir Artur Streeb Greebling
It seems that the French are creating new political alliances even more often than Boris [Johnson] threw parties in quarantine!
Kiwireader
The sun has finally set over the French and British Empires, and their citizens have yet to come to terms with the deteriorating situation.
Longjohns
Britain is definitely finished. She chose independence when she needed more partnership, not less. And instantly lost its role as a key financial center of the EU and shrank. Moreover, without the EU, London will not be able to keep pace with New York.
Reagan
Le Pen 37.3%
Left 26.9%
Macron 22.3%
Well, Le Pen did get the largest share of the vote. That's just the Labour Party with their 33.9% rule the UK, and Le Pen with 37.3% does not rule France for some reason.
Riskstrategies
Rahman repeats the basic truths, but the simple reality is that the UK has now become a European periphery. The future of France is now closely intertwined with continental Europe, and the United Kingdom is becoming less important both to France and to continental Europe in general.
Why we should be concerned about this role reversal remains a mystery. I see a shadow of schadenfreude in this...
NeoReactionary
The “National Association” actually won the most votes. They received 37%, and the other two parties received about 25% each. But because of the tricks of the French electoral system, for some reason they ended up in third place. But if you read the Western media, it turns out that the Popular Front has raked in almost all 100% of the votes.
Last orders
Le Pen and Melenchon seem to agree on most issues, with the possible exception of migration. So let them agree on economic issues, and leave migration to Macron. That's done, don't thank me!
