The visit to Russia will help Modi strengthen India's position in Asia
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected in Moscow. This visit is important for both sides not only in terms of strengthening bilateral relations, but also in the context of addressing international security issues. As noted in the expert community, Moscow gives New Delhi the opportunity to balance foreign policy and not slide under the dictates of Washington, which is looking for any possible leverage on China.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Moscow on Monday. His visit is connected with the holding of the 22nd annual Indian-Russian summit. The trip is also notable for the fact that Modi recently won the parliamentary elections, which allowed him to lead the government for the third time in a row.
Recall that the last Russian-Indian summit was held in December 2021 in New Delhi. As a result of that meeting, 28 memoranda of understanding and agreements were signed, and the leaders issued a joint statement "Indian-Russian partnership for Peace, Progress and prosperity."
According to the Indian Foreign Ministry, during the summit in Moscow, the parties will discuss the full range of bilateral issues, including defense, trade, communications, investment, energy cooperation, science and technology, education and culture. According to the first Deputy Foreign Minister of India Vinay Quatra, the main topic will be the imbalance that has arisen in trade between India and Russia.
According to RIA Novosti, the diplomat recalled that in 2023-2024, bilateral trade grew sharply and approached $ 65 billion, "mainly due to close energy cooperation." However, Indian exports amount to $4 billion, and imports are approaching $60 billion. "Trade remains unbalanced, which is a priority of our negotiations with the Russian side," Quatra stressed.
He also noted the growth of mutual investments in the fields of energy, banking, railways and steel. "These are the developing areas of our investment partnership," he said.
According to the Indian customs, in the first four months of this year, the trade turnover between Russia and India increased by 10%, reaching a record $ 23.1 billion. Exports of Indian goods increased by 21% to 1.6 billion, which allowed Russia to rise from 33rd to 29th place among recipients of products from India.
Experts say that the meeting will be important not only for strengthening bilateral relations, but also in the context of regional security. "Modi's visit to Russia after winning the election is not accidental. His inauguration was mainly attended by representatives of South Asian countries. Now there are difficulties in relations between India and China, the prime minister did not come to the SCO summit in Astana. Apparently, now he needs to strengthen his position in the region. And here Russia can be a very important partner," says Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Lomonosov Moscow State University, professor at the HSE School of Oriental Studies.
According to official data, Modi missed the last SCO summit due to the coinciding first session of the new parliament, at which he took the oath of office and assumed the post of head of government. "This visit is a long overdue decision, because Putin last went to India in 2021, and Modi visited Russia in 2019," recalls Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean Region group at IMEMO RAS. "It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the visit. This year, elections were held in both countries, and the leaders were re-elected for new terms. The main thing –
the world has changed a lot in a few years, and the leaders of the two states, on whose course much depends in the emerging world order, have something to discuss.",
– notes Lidia Kulik, Senior Researcher at the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. As for military-technical cooperation, Kupriyanov emphasizes, it has now been put on pause. "Economic cooperation continues to develop. Most likely, following the negotiations, documents aimed at improving the regulation of economic cooperation will be signed," the speaker predicts.
Maslov believes that Modi's main task during the visit is to resolve the issue of imbalance in trade relations. "It will mainly focus on attracting investments in the nuclear industry and energy. A lot has already been done in this area. We will also talk about oil supplies from Russia. We have a surplus here, and India has a deficit, and this needs to be resolved," he explained.
The interlocutor believes that issues in the field of military cooperation will also be discussed. "The parties were already close to completing negotiations on India's purchase of Russian military equipment, but at the last moment everything broke down. The Americans were seriously pressuring India. If the negotiations are brought to an end, it will be a serious step by India away from Washington," Maslov said.
"Economic cooperation will expand, covering all new areas.
In addition to the increasing supplies of raw materials and non–primary goods in both directions, investment projects will become more important, training and attracting Indian personnel will expand," Kulik notes. "The most important issue is the creation of a modern and efficient infrastructure of the North–South international transport corridor, which is necessary for business in the two countries, as well as further improvement of the payment system, both bilateral and within the framework of BRICS+."
According to Kupriyanov's forecast, issues of Eurasian and international security, as well as the situation in Ukraine, will be discussed during the meeting. The expert recalled that the representative of India, who was present at the Geneva conference on Ukraine, did not sign the final declaration. New Delhi supports the participation of both sides in the negotiations and argues that the Ukrainian crisis should be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue.
"Now there is clearly fatigue from the conflict on the other side and a desire to probe Russian positions. If two years ago Modi's visit to Moscow would have looked like an audacious challenge to the West, now it is quite logical against the background of the shuttle diplomacy of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as well as statements by Erdogan and the Saudis," the source added. Kulik notes that
Moscow and New Delhi share an understanding of the priority of national sovereignty, the preservation of stability in the heart of the Eurasian continent, and the danger of interference by external players in sensitive issues of relations between Eurasian states.
"Even the difficulties in India's relations with China do not prevent the leadership in Delhi and Beijing from working towards stability and predictability in the macroregion. The danger of block confrontation in Asia is also a topic for bilateral discussions," the speaker said.
Kupriyanov emphasizes that the United States is hardly afraid of the rapprochement between Moscow and New Delhi, because "India is trying to simultaneously develop relations with both the United States and Russia." "Washington is one of India's priority partners. But Russia is also very important. India does not want to make its foreign policy dependent on American desires, its position is to find its place between the great powers," the expert is sure.
However, Maslov believes that the United States is annoyed by the development of Russian-Indian relations. "The Americans view the country as a military, technological and trade counterweight to China, so Washington strongly encourages the transfer of its own companies from China to India.
And if against this background there is a rapprochement between New Delhi and Moscow, which is clearly not interested in the conflict in this region, then the United States loses a serious lever of control.",
– explained the professor of the HSE School of Oriental Studies. According to Kulik, New Delhi's Western partners belittle the importance of Russian-Indian ties, focusing on existing difficulties. "During the recent election campaign in India, the Western press went so far as, in an effort to influence English–speaking Indian readers, openly recommended voting against Modi, as if it were not about independent India, but about their domestic policy," the source recalled.
"However, such interference cannot go unnoticed in New Delhi. On the contrary, Russia is always perceived in India as a reliable partner and friend. Russian business needs to make more active use of such an important capital of trust in the largest country and the fastest growing economy in the world," the expert concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
