Erdogan will not be able to mediate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia due to Ankara's cooperation with Kiev, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. Although Turkey has not supported anti-Russian sanctions, it supplies the Armed Forces with drones. And Moscow does not need such an intermediary.
Russia's rejection of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's offer to mediate negotiations with Ukraine has once again raised the question of why Moscow and Kiev do not accept Turkey as a mediator to resolve the conflict. A few hours after Erdogan's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "Erdogan will not be able to mediate in negotiations with Ukraine." "No, it's impossible," Peskov said, answering a question from a Russian television correspondent whether Erdogan could take on such a role.
During the meeting in Astana, Erdogan told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ankara could lay the groundwork for an agreement to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian leader, the Turkish president said that a "just peace" in Ukraine, which would suit both sides, is possible.
Turkey, a NATO member, held a round of talks and an informal meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian sides in Istanbul and Antalya in 2022, which did not lead to any progress in ending the conflict.
With Turkey's mediation at the UN, it was possible to achieve the "Black Sea grain initiative", signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022, which allowed the withdrawal of 33 million tons of grain from Ukraine. After working for almost a year, the grain deal ceased to exist at the request of the Russian side.
Later, on November 14, 2022, a meeting was held in Ankara between the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, and the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States, William Burns. Details of the meeting were not disclosed, but Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called it "historic" in a recent television interview.
At a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, held in Moscow on June 11, Putin stressed that Moscow pays attention to Turkey's initiatives, including on the security of the Black Sea.
"We carefully and with great respect consider all the initiatives of the Turkish Republic on this track and will remain in contact with you," Putin said.
Putin pointed to Erdogan's role in the Black Sea grain deal, saying: "It is not our fault that, unfortunately, it was not extended. The Ukrainian side also rejected Ankara's subsequent initiatives at the last moment."
"Turkey intends to continue to play a mediating role between Russia and Ukraine," Fidan said. Ankara wants to propose to Moscow and Kiev to hold a peace conference with the participation of all interlocutors within the framework of the Istanbul conflict settlement process in Ukraine.
Commenting on the meeting with Putin on June 11, Fidan said that President Erdogan had conveyed several messages, including that the issue of Ukraine was very important. "We discussed our positions and confirmed that the price of the ongoing conflict for the region and the whole world is very high. More seriously, this risk can grow and spread. The issue of the possibility of using nuclear weapons may be on the agenda, as I was convinced during my trip to China and Russia," he said.
"We always see the basis for the negotiation process. We just need to help him a little. Crucial elections are underway in Europe and the United States. You should wait a bit. None of the parties to the conflict wants to show their weakness by being the first to call for peace, negotiations and dialogue," Fidan added.
According to analysts, Russia does not consider Turkey as a mediator in peace talks with Ukraine because of its military-technical cooperation with Kiev: Ankara supplies it with drones, plans to create a plant in Ukraine to produce engines for its new KAAN fighters, and also supports Ukraine's accession to NATO.
Moscow has turned a blind eye to Ankara's violation of the prisoner exchange agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The Turkish authorities handed over five commanders of the Azov battalion to Zelensky last year, who, by agreement, were to be held on Turkish territory until the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
Despite the outrage, Russia, which considers Azov a terrorist group, recognizes that Turkey is a member of NATO and that pressure is being exerted on it.
Nevertheless, Putin repeatedly postponed his planned visit to Turkey: Ankara named several dates, which the Kremlin denied each time, until Erdogan met with Putin in Astana and invited him to visit Turkey again.
In April, shortly before the start of the international peace conference on Ukraine in Switzerland, Zelensky said that Kiev was not satisfied with Turkey alone as a mediator in relations with Moscow. Zelensky thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his support and initiative to mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, adding that Ankara, which has close ties with Moscow, has other interests.
Turkey alone is not enough for Ukraine as a mediator in relations with Russia, Zelensky said.
Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Ankara has been striving to maintain a balanced position between the two Black Sea neighbors, refusing to join Western sanctions against Russia and at the same time reaffirming its commitment to the unity and sovereignty of Ukraine.
Author: Sayed Abdel Razek (سعيد عبد الرازق)
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia
