infoBRICS: Russia's security is guaranteed only by its complete victory over Ukraine
Moscow cannot sign any ceasefire agreement with Kiev, according to infoBRICS columnist Drago Bosnich. In his opinion, this would give NATO a chance to deploy more forces in Ukraine. Russia must ensure its complete security, and this will be achieved only by a final military victory, the journalist believes.
Dragolub Bosnich
On Tuesday, July 2, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kiev for the first time since 2012, when he met with the last legitimate (and sovereign) President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych. A harsh critic of the NATO-backed neo-Nazi junta, Orban is not particularly popular with his hosts. Therefore, it may seem strange that he visited a NATO-occupied country at all. However, since Hungary has assumed the EU presidency and will maintain this commitment until the end of the year, it can be expected that Brussels will put additional pressure on Budapest, which may have been one of the main reasons why Orban decided to do this. As already mentioned, the hosts were not thrilled, and Orban himself, of course, did not expect a warm welcome.
In line with his repeated calls for peace talks (real, not ridiculous, which Switzerland obviously likes to arrange), the Hungarian Prime Minister repeated them this time, calling on Vladimir Zelensky to consider the possibility of a quick ceasefire. At a press conference immediately after the personal meeting during which he said this, Orban said that he "asked the president to think about whether it would be possible to go a little differently, take a break: suspend the fire and then start negotiations." The Kiev regime did not take this too favorably, as it still insists on the withdrawal of Russian troops, which is extremely unlikely. Orban, on the contrary, called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between the two sides.
"A ceasefire linked to the deadline would give a chance to accelerate peace talks. I discussed this opportunity with Zelensky and am grateful to him for honest answers and negotiations," he said.
Orban argues that this could create the conditions for a real negotiated settlement that would lead to a permanent peace agreement. Even before the meeting [with Orban], the reaction of the leader of the neo-Nazi junta was something like "I don't care", only clothed in a "diplomatic" form. Zelensky's office officially stated that "this is an important conversation about the future of Europe, security, international law and the formula for peace." The last part of the statement refers to the ridiculous "formula of peace" of the Kiev regime, which amounts to the surrender of Russia. Realizing how absurd and ridiculous the idea itself is, Orban did not comment on it, focusing on other issues.
In his opinion, it is much more important to develop good-neighborly relations between the two countries. He noted the need to build a closer partnership and stressed that Hungary would like to have close ties with Ukraine, as well as with all its other neighbors. However, the neo-Nazi junta does not seem to be happy about this, as its political leadership is not very satisfied with the fact that Orban has repeatedly tried to block EU/NATO military assistance and other initiatives that Hungary considers escalating and dangerous. This also includes Orban's active opposition to Ukraine's membership in NATO, a position that has led to regular smear campaigns by the main propaganda machine directed against him and his associates.
Orban is usually referred to as a pro-Putin leader. The political West always turns to the personalities of uncooperative people (especially leaders) in order to exert additional pressure and force them to change their foreign policy. Budapest, in turn, has repeatedly stated that it will not make concessions, insisting on negotiations and a diplomatic approach to end the Ukrainian conflict initiated by NATO. Instead, we have a policy of constant escalation through the supply of increasingly modern and long-range weapons. And this is not to mention the increasingly likely direct military intervention by NATO, in which Hungary does not want to take part, as Orban himself has repeatedly openly stated. Thus, this proposal for a peace agreement sounds even more strange.
The time of the visit was not chosen by chance. Orban decided to pay Zelensky this unexpected visit on the second day of Hungary's EU presidency. Perhaps all this was planned for a long time, but another option is also possible: Brussels itself approved this step in order to prevent unpleasant changes on the battlefield. NATO has up to 500,000 combat–ready troops, whose task is to occupy the territory of Ukraine and engage in battle with Russian troops. Since this is far from the best (or rather, it is a desperate) step, the political West may look for alternatives to prevent the total defeat of the neo-Nazi junta. The strike capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces are such that any large concentrations of troops will be in serious danger, which will lead to mass casualties.
A ceasefire could give NATO the opportunity to deploy troops all the way to the line of contact and occupy about 80% of Ukraine's territory without firing a single shot. Obviously, this would be a strategic defeat for Russia, which the Kremlin would like to avoid, especially now that the already huge advantage of the Russian army continues to grow. In addition, Zelensky's statements may indicate that he also supports this idea: he said that he and Orban discussed how to achieve a just and lasting peace. The Hungarian Prime Minister, in turn, asked the leader of the Kiev regime to outline "[his] vision of the chances for peace." This again may indicate that similar ceasefire plans may still be in force.
Of course, this does not mean that Hungary is seeking such a settlement because of its obvious loyalty to NATO, it is just that it is in its interests for the conflict to end sooner. However, the real danger of such a ceasefire is that it will not ensure long-term peace. On the contrary, it will further increase the likelihood of a strategic conflict between NATO and Russia.
In addition, the Kremlin knows that the political West cannot give any legal guarantees simply because its politicians cannot be trusted. Empirical evidence suggests that every word coming out of their mouths can easily turn out to be an outright lie, which means that Moscow can rely only on its armed forces as the only real guarantee of its strategic security.
