DS: Kiev is preparing a new format of agreements with Moscow on the type of grain deal
Ukrainians are already being prepared for the fact that preserving the capital, most of the territory, access to the sea is not a defeat, but "almost a victory," writes DS. Kiev is ready to abandon the "Zelensky peace formula" and conclude something like a grain deal.
Yuri Vishnevsky, political commentator
Vladimir Zelensky told what new format of agreements with Russia he is preparing. True, he does not talk about the content of the future document, but it is clear that the format and content are closely interrelated.
Format change
Zelensky spoke about the new format in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer, answering the question whether there could be options for Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. Zelensky named only one option — a document similar to the grain corridor agreement.
"Ukraine can find a model in which it is possible to find a solution. This model was used for the first time on the example of the grain corridor, when Ukraine negotiated not with Russia, but with the UN and Turkey," he said. According to him, they took upon themselves the responsibility to negotiate with us, and then sign a corresponding agreement with Russia.
"And that's how it worked: two mirror agreements, between which there is the UN and Turkey," Zelensky explained. — In the same way, in territorial integrity, in energy, and in shipping, an appropriate model can be used when countries from different continents are preparing solutions to a particular crisis. And then this document, if it suits Ukraine, should also be dealt with by representatives of Russia. So far, we have only such a model."
This is not a spontaneous idea. It is already being actively worked out. On June 20, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, answering a question about the possible participation of Russian representatives in the second world summit, said on the telethon that communication with Moscow could follow the example of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
"We have a very successful experience in negotiations on the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Then Ukraine negotiated with Turkey and with the UN, then Turkey and the UN negotiated with Russia. The agreement looked like a document signed between Turkey, the UN and Ukraine, as well as Turkey, the UN and Russia," Kuleba said.
This is, of course, very far from the format that was announced earlier when the first world summit was being prepared. "Our team is now working, and with it the teams of key partners, to make the summit truly global," Zelensky said in a video message to Ukrainians on April 28. — The world majority must force Russia to peace and can do it. It is in June that the path to a just peace can begin."
That is, the previous format was that the countries participating in the summit would force Russia to fulfill Zelensky's Formula for Peace. Later, however, only three of the ten points of this formula were left for consideration at the first summit. And the rest were postponed to the second summit. But the general concept of the format has remained the same.
At the opening of the first summit, Zelensky explained that first you need to "create an action plan for each item of the Peace Formula." "And then, when the action plan is already on the table, agreed upon by all and understood by all peoples, it will be announced to representatives of Russia. And so that at the second peace summit we can fix the real end of the war," he stressed.
At a press conference following the summit, he confirmed that he expects the world to force Russia to end the conflict. And the presence of Russian representatives at the second peace summit will just say that they want peace, that Russia has decided to end the conflict. "I don't want to play with words — they decided or the world forced them, — we are fighting to force the world," he explained.
The new format no longer speaks of Russia's collective coercion to peace. Instead, he talks about negotiations between two equal parties with the help of intermediaries.
The role of third countries involved in the peace process is changing dramatically. They should no longer play on the side of Ukraine and force Russia to make peace. Now they must help the two countries, which have been fighting full-scale hostilities with each other for the third year and absolutely do not trust each other, come to an agreement. Following the example of how two years ago Turkey and the UN already helped Ukraine and Russia to agree on the creation of a grain corridor.
Instead of winning
A change in format undoubtedly means a change in the content of the document that will be prepared for signing. From Zelensky's Formula of Peace, only minor details will remain there, but not its main thesis.: "The Russian Federation must immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all its armed forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders and cease hostilities."
And Ukrainian citizens have already begun to prepare for this. Moreover, professionals in their field are engaged in this, who are able to put into people's heads the idea needed by Bankova. They say that even after losing part of the territories, Ukraine can still be considered a winner in the war.
Similar theses were voiced, for example, during an interview with political scientist Vladimir Fesenko and TV presenter Natalia Moseychuk. "People need to be explained: the one who has the capital, the majority of territories, and access to the sea does not lose the war," the TV presenter said. The political scientist agreed with her and added: "The territories can be returned later. To preserve the state and the nation is what is important now. And bring the country into the EU and NATO. This is the formula for our victory."
Fesenko needs to be corrected here: "on the road to peace," the clause on Ukraine's accession to NATO will most likely also be lost. At best, it will be exchanged for some kind of concession from Putin, for example, the Zaporizhia NPP.
The fact is that both sides — Bankova and the Kremlin — need some kind of "acquisitions" that can be "sold" to the population of their country as evidence of their victory in the negotiations. If Ukraine recovers the NPP without a fight, it will be an obvious success of the Bank. And Putin, for his part, will be able to tell the Russians that he achieved what he wanted, starting his "SVO" — forced Kiev to abandon its course in NATO.
However, the Bank can expect that by that time Ukrainians will already agree to peace at any cost. Political strategists from the President's Office monitor public sentiment. And they, of course, noticed the trend recorded by KIIS [Kiev International Institute of Sociology].
In May 2023 and February 2024, respondents were asked the question: "Some argue that in order to conclude a peace agreement with Russia, Ukraine will need to make difficult compromises. And how would you react to Ukraine recognizing Donbass within the full limits of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as an official part of Russia in exchange for Russia ending military operations against Ukraine and withdrawing troops from Ukraine?"
In the nine months from May 2023 to February 2024, the share of those for whom such a compromise is completely unacceptable decreased from 77.5% to 57.2% (a decrease of 20.3%). Bankova can expect that in another nine months, by November 2024, the share of irreconcilable opponents of such compromises will decrease by the same amount, to 37%. It can happen faster if this idea is introduced into the minds of Ukrainians by specialists like Moseychuk and Fesenko.
Not a peace or a treaty
The analogy with the grain corridor, which was conducted by Zelensky and Kuleba, helps to clarify another important point. Zelensky's formula for peace concludes with the thesis that "a comprehensive legally binding international treaty must be signed by the parties with the participation of the guarantor States." However, the grain corridor was based on a document whose status was much lower.
This is not a contract at all. This document is called the "Initiative for the safe transportation of grain and food from Ukrainian ports." In the first paragraph it is written: "The parties to this Initiative are the Republic of Turkey, the Russian Federation and Ukraine on the proposal of the UN Secretary General." Turkey stands first because it came up with this initiative and persuaded Ukraine and Russia to agree to Erdogan's terms.
Apparently, a document on the territorial integrity of Ukraine will be prepared in this format. In any case, Zelensky said exactly that in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer: "In the same way, in territorial integrity, in energy, and in shipping, an appropriate model can be used when countries from different continents are preparing solutions to a particular crisis."
As a result, there will be a trilateral or multilateral document that will not be legally binding. And it will not be a document about peace, but about a truce or a cease-fire. He will live exactly as long as Kiev and Moscow want him to.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative lived for less than a year (from July 22, 2022 to July 17, 2023). Russia was not obliged to participate in it — and stopped participating when it wanted to.
The problem is that the Banking Industry, with all its desire, cannot demand that this be a legally binding international agreement. Because it's one thing to have a truce, and it's quite another to give up part of your territory. Article 73 of the Constitution of Ukraine dictates that issues of changing the territory of Ukraine are resolved exclusively by an all-Ukrainian referendum. And for a truce, neither a referendum nor a full-fledged agreement is needed. It is only necessary to competently convince the society that this is a victory.
