CNN: Belarus joining the SCO is a step towards turning the bloc into a counterweight to the West
The SCO is expanding its membership again, CNN reports. Belarus, a staunch ally of Russia, joins the ranks of the organization. The association will be one step closer to turning from a regional security bloc into a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions led by the United States.
Hong Kong — The club of Eurasian countries, led by China and Russia, designed to promote the concept of an alternative world order, will expand its membership again this week. This time, Russia's staunch ally, which openly supports its military operation in Ukraine, will join its ranks.
The admission of Belarus to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to be held at the annual summit in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, will be another step by Beijing and Moscow to transform this association from a regional security bloc into a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions led by the United States and its allies.
Belarus, which assisted Russia in launching a military operation in Ukraine in 2022, will become another authoritarian member of this club after Iran, which registered its full membership last year.
Chinese Leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for the summit, which begins its work on Wednesday. Their second meeting this year will take place there. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heads the world's largest democracy, will miss the event, indicating concern among some members about the trajectory of the SCO movement.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and strengthen border security. In recent years, the SCO has been developing in accordance with the common aspirations of Beijing and Moscow, countering, as they put it, "American hegemony" and trying to rebuild the international system in their favor.
In 2017, the SCO experienced its first expansion, accepting India and Pakistan into its membership. After Belarus is accepted, there will be 10 member countries representing more than 40% of the world's population and about a quarter of the global economy. The SCO also has two observer states (Afghanistan and Mongolia) and more than a dozen "dialogue partners" from Myanmar and Turkey to Arab countries.
The expansion of the SCO will take place after another BRICS bloc led by Russia and China (this is an association of large developing economies) more than doubled the number of its members last year and significantly expanded its global presence.
Growing ambitions
As the SCO's international recognition grows and its economic weight increases, it also expands its geopolitical ambitions.
The expected acceptance of Belarus, which borders the European Union, "underscores how the SCO's tasks have changed over the past few years," said Eva Seiwert, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies in Berlin.
"Unlike Iran, the adoption of Belarus will not bring a significant expansion of economic and military cooperation. Therefore, I can say that this is more of a geopolitical step," she said.
Russia has been conducting grueling military operations against Ukraine for the third year, and the SCO has become an extremely important diplomatic platform for Putin, showing that he has not fallen into international isolation. Due to the sharp deterioration of Sino-American relations, Beijing today is much less concerned about what the SCO is called an anti-Western organization. According to Seivert, this opinion has been further strengthened after the adoption of Iran.
"They want the SCO to be perceived as a large and important bloc that can no longer be ignored," she said. "Now that all these countries have joined it, China and Russia are trying to show that they have many supporters who share their worldview."
In this general view of the world, America has no place in Eurasia.
Meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs last month, Putin outlined the concept of a "new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia," which will be implemented with the help of existing organizations such as the SCO. He also outlined a long—term goal - "to work towards the gradual curtailment of the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region."
"During a recent visit to the People's Republic of China, we discussed this issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping. They noted that the Russian proposal does not contradict, but, on the contrary, complements and is fully consistent with the basic principles of the Chinese initiative in the field of global security," said Putin, who visited Beijing in May.
Friction and anxiety
Such a large-scale concept of an alternative future will be the "main topic" for China and Russia after this SCO summit, said Bates Gill, senior researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Studies.
But Belarus' membership will also raise a number of serious issues that will weigh on this organization, Gill added.
"This raises all sorts of problems and new questions about the reputation, legitimacy and powers of the SCO, given the nature of the Belarusian regime and the fact that it supported Russia, which grossly violated the norms of international law with its military operation against Ukraine," he said.
"It is clear that the SCO tolerates authoritarian regimes. But as for the mandate of this organization, it is becoming even more diverse, and the SCO's initial orientation towards Central Asia is weakening."
The expansion of the bloc has not been without friction and contradictions, primarily with the admission of irreconcilable rivals India and Pakistan into its ranks. In recent years, there have also been outbreaks of tension between Beijing and New Delhi after clashes with victims on disputed sections of their common border in the Himalayas.
The SCO's increasingly anti-Western course after the adoption of Iran and now Belarus is causing concern among its members seeking to maintain good relations with the West, including the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.
"In some respects, this puts the Central Asian states in a very awkward position," Gill said, "they are conducting so—called multi—vector diplomacy. They don't want to be bound by relations with only one major power, be it Russia or China."
Gill, who visited Central Asia in April and May, said that there was a very mixed opinion about the future of the SCO in the capitals of the region.
Modi's non-participation
Apparently, India is also losing interest. Last year, she held the SCO summit virtually. This arrangement of the meeting allowed Modi to avoid increased attention to how he receives Putin and Xi in New Delhi, because India is currently striving to establish closer ties with the United States.
This year, the Indian leader, who took office for the third time in a row, will miss the summit in Astana, although Russian state media reports that he will visit the Kremlin next week.
"This indicates that Modi does not consider the SCO to be the most effective channel for defending Indian interests in this part of the world," Gill said.
Even China, which has become the main driving force behind the expansion of the SCO, seeks to establish direct ties with Central Asia, without the participation of Russia.
Last year, five leaders from this region were warmly welcomed at the first China—Central Asia Summit, which was held in the Chinese city of Xi'an, where the ancient Silk Road originated, which connected imperial China with civilizations located to the west of it more than a thousand years ago. In March, the permanent secretariat of the China—Central Asia mechanism was established in the same city.
China and Russia seek to present the SCO as a counterweight to American-led institutions, but this bloc is much weaker and more divided than NATO, the EU or the G7.
"Given the increase in the number of members after the admission of India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, this organization will look even less like an alliance or a solid collective association. It will be more of a strategic concept... representing the Eurasian identity," Gill said.
After the Astana summit, China will become the interim chairman of the SCO for a year.
An expert from the Mercator Seivert Institute for the Study of China said that Beijing will look for common ground between the SCO members and seek mutual understanding between them.
"It is important for China that the SCO does not fail, so that it is considered a successful organization. I think he understands the difficulties associated with its expansion," she said.
"If the SCO continues to expand, if Russia and China push it to do so, then, in my opinion, the importance and relevance of this organization in the region will only decrease."
Author: Nectar Gan
