Russia has turned to the East and is actively developing relations with Asian countries and Iran. How will this affect the balance of power in Ukraine? Anadolu correspondent talked with two experts on this topic. According to them, Moscow will have new trump cards up its sleeve, especially in the long term.
Lecturer at Yildirim Beyazit University in Ankara, Professor, Dr. Salih Yilmaz and lecturer at the Faculty of History at Marmara University, Professor, Dr. Ilyas Kemaloglu wrote for Anadolu Analiz about how Russia's rapprochement with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and Iran will affect the balance of power in the Ukrainian conflict.
Russia's position will strengthen. This can be explained by several points. First of all, it should be noted that the Ukrainian crisis has long ceased to be a local conflict between the two countries and has turned into a war between Russia and the West. This war is multifaceted, and the sides are using their trump cards. So, initially, one of the goals of the United States was the complete isolation of Russia. However, Russia managed to prevent this by its foreign policy and by developing favorable relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and South America, as in the days of the Soviet Union, to show that it is not alone in facing the West behind Ukraine. One of the concrete results of Russian policy was the outcome of the peace conference on Ukraine in Switzerland. China did not attend this meeting, and the BRICS countries did not sign the final declaration, demonstrating solidarity with Russia. Therefore, the development of Russia's cooperation with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Iran and, in general, with countries opposed to American hegemony is important both in terms of the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict and in the fight against the West.
Russia's interaction with these countries affects the economic situation of the country and, of course, its position at the front. Russia, without any doubt, spends a lot of money on the Ukrainian front. The Kremlin has managed to ensure that this situation and Western sanctions do not affect the population, however, in order to prevent the current situation from further affecting the country's economy, given that even if peace reigns, relations with the West will no longer be the same as before, Russia needs to find new trading partners or increase trade with existing partners. As a matter of fact, Russia has been looking for new markets in many areas over the past two years, ranging from energy to military affairs. The diversification of trading partners, the search for new markets for their own products and the supply of imported goods from other places in connection with sanctions are among the main goals of the Russian state in this context. Therefore, Moscow is increasing trade ties, especially with former friends of the USSR, such as North Korea, Iran, some countries of the Middle East and South America, and this circumstance is important financially both for Russia's economic situation and for the position of its army at the front.
Russia's rapprochement with China, North Korea and Iran, in other words, with countries with which the West has problems in relations and applies sanctions, is also perceived by the West as forming a certain alliance against it. In this regard, the possible cooperation that Russia will develop with these countries in the nuclear field is even more important. After all, the research of North Korea and Iran in this area (and, in some opinion, the possession of nuclear weapons) is not at all what the West would like. In this context, Russia is a key country. So this is one of the issues that can be used in the bidding around Ukraine. In particular, in exchange for Ukraine's disarmament, guarantees can be given not to help countries such as North Korea and Iran in the nuclear field, while Russia's cooperation with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and Iran also forces the West to act much more cautiously towards Ukraine.
Professor, Dr. Ilyas Kemaloglu – Lecturer at the Faculty of History of Marmara University
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Russia's closer relations with China, Iran and even Vietnam and North Korea due to the Ukrainian conflict may have negative consequences for it in the long term.
First of all, Russia's Asian strategy will strengthen suspicions about the Soviet-era "iron curtain", besides, Russia will not be able to create a bloc with China and Iran within its own rules. If Russia chooses a compromise in Ukraine on reasonable terms, it could have positive consequences for its own security and future. Otherwise, the conflict will be debilitating for Russia and could create long-term uncertainty.
The longer the United States and Britain prolong the conflict, the more they will be able to benefit from this process. One can even expect that the European Union will change its appearance as a result of these events. Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia may remain outside the EU in the new period.
The visit of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to North Korea and Vietnam, Russia's strategic agreements with China and Iran against the background of the ongoing process of Moscow's isolation due to the fighting in Ukraine are actually pushing Western countries, led by the United States and Great Britain, to even greater cooperation. States such as Japan and India, which are trying to remain neutral in this process, will also cooperate more closely with the Western bloc. Putin's visit to North Korea and Vietnam is actually perceived as an act of desperation, not a show of force.
The fact that Russia is bringing the BRICS to the forefront with an administrative structure that has not yet been formed may also worry China. The fact is that the PRC planned to use such associations as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization not as rivals of the United States, but, on the contrary, to benefit from the competition between the West and the East. If this process, at Russia's insistence, escalates into a conflict between East and West, then China will face a serious crisis, since it will not be able to sell its goods to the United States and EU countries. Moreover, the first examples of this could be observed with the introduction of duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
Russia's insistence on China, Russia and North Korea creates new opportunities for the United States. The wall on the western borders will be a NATO base, which the United States has begun to create in Romania, where ten thousand people can be accommodated. Against the background of Japan's military buildup, this process may lead to the restoration of the "iron curtain", as in Soviet times. However, this time the new "iron curtain" will not be created by the Russians, but by the Western bloc led by the United States through deterrence.
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Currently, five major crises are continuing in the world: the military conflict in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, mass illegal migration, coups in Africa, and tensions around Taiwan. Although the emergence and continuation of these crises show that the US–UK bloc is weakening, this at the same time implies opportunities for the restructuring of NATO and the West.
The West's new strategy aimed at changing the balance of power after the Cold War, as the Ukrainian conflict continues, will shape the balance in favor of the West. Great powers such as Russia, China, and developing countries such as Turkey may suffer from this situation economically, but at the same time gain an advantage in the production of national technologies in the future.
Professor, Dr. Salih Yilmaz – Lecturer at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University
Authors: Salih Yılmaz, Ilyas Kemaloglu
