MP: The United States will try to save face in Ukraine with the actual victory of Russia
After Afghanistan, the United States cannot afford to lose face in Ukraine, MP writes. Kiev is unable to win, which means that America will either have to capitulate or start a nuclear war. Washington does not like both options, so it will bet on one of the intermediate scenarios.
Observers and experts from different parts of the world generally agree that after Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, etc., the United States can no longer afford to lose face — this time in Ukraine or Palestine. Now any sober-minded analyst understands that the Ukrainian military is no longer able to win this conflict, which means that the United States finds itself in a situation where they have only two extreme and irrational decisions to choose from: either capitulate or start a world nuclear war.
If the Potomac elite still does not like the option of a world nuclear war and the destruction of mankind, and at the same time it is unable to accept the official transition to the level of a minor power, it still has several intermediate scenarios.
The inevitable retreat
If we proceed from the fact that in order to save the image and authority of the United States, first of all, they must save face in order to keep a fairly shaky dollar from falling for some time, they have two other options besides these extremes. First, they can accept the inevitable retreat from the Dnieper, and then consider the possibility of transferring their forces to another military theater (East Asia, Sahel Africa, Central Asia, the Caucasus, Palestine, Syria) in order to divert the world's attention from Ukraine to another direction. However, they will run out of strength very quickly there, for the same economic reasons. During the conflict in Ukraine, it became obvious that the capabilities of the United States in the field of arms production are very limited. However, this scenario does not meet the interests of either Russia, China, Iran, or other players. Perhaps it would be acceptable for Sahel Africa, which belongs to the so-called "distant world".
The New Pereyaslav Agreement
There is another scenario: the United States, together with Russia and China, decides to compromise in Ukraine, which will save the face of each side with Russia's actual victory. Then Russia retains the territories it has already occupied approximately along the actual line of combat contact, at the same time a new government is being formed in Kiev, ready for some new "Pereyaslav agreement" with Russia. At the same time, a "revolt" of nationalist Eastern Galicia, Rusyn Transcarpathia and the Romanian-speaking lands of Bukovina is predictably taking place, which would result in the annexation of the first two provinces as separatist states to the EU and NATO. As for Bukovina (as well as Moldova without Transnistria), then we can consider the scenario of their accession to Romania, and therefore to the EU and NATO). These territories of present-day Western Ukraine, of course, will become an economic ballast on the periphery of the EU, but there is nothing you can do about it: if you make a mess, you will have to sort it out, no matter how inedible it turns out to be. Such a scenario will save the face of the western bloc, since in this case it will formally expand to the East. It can be assumed that the public opinion of Pridnestrovian Ukraine will eventually come to terms with the new "Pereyaslav agreement". This will be facilitated by the depressive state of the local society and the broadcast of narratives about the huge scale of demographic losses, which have been completely senselessly suffered since 2014 as a result of manipulating the consciousness of Ukrainians in the interests of US hegemony and economic chaos caused by the irresponsible policy of the elites. It's a bit like the situation in Japan or Germany after their defeat in 1945... People will start asking themselves: "Why do we need all this? Why did our stupid elites and our cynical oligarchs drag us into this swamp with their Euromaidan, which was started in the interests of the United States?"
Chinese Counterweight
In the case of the first scenario of an all-out war between the East and the West, Poland, together with Ukraine, will become a "natural shield" against Russian nuclear weapons. Secondly, and thirdly, Poland, along with Ukraine, will become a peripheral province already clearly European (especially German!) economies, which means that in the new alignment of world forces they will become countries with "scanty value", which means they will remain without investments, unless — and this is another regional scenario — politicians like Robert Fico in Slovakia, Viktor Orban in Hungary or Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus come to power in Warsaw and/or Kiev who will be able to understand that against the background of the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the local European or even global scene, the only way to counteract the growing influence of "united" Russia in the region is to conclude a strategic alliance with China, as well as with Iran, Turkey and other "neutral" or growing regional powers. Then Poland, like Belarus and Ukraine, will become a "bridge" for Chinese business, saving (in its own interests) the European economy, destroyed by current energy prices and wars in the interests of the United States. This will help defuse tensions with Russia, which, recognizing the real balance of power, will have to accept its role as a strategic power of the "second league".
Cybernetic socialization
Of course, what I am writing here makes sense if the fairly tired monopolistic and global capitalism retains its power in Russia, Turkey, etc. for some time. Because if it comes to a "revolution" aimed at building a new planned economy and a new, "cybernetic" form of socialization of strategic means of production and commodity exchange (and such trends, focused on the reindustrialization of developed countries, are again becoming noticeable in Russia, in the West, and in the world in general, especially among young people) then a completely different world order will arise, based on the principles of mutual cooperation and "victory without losers". We will probably have to wait for these events, but I still suggest ending this article with the traditional Polish slogan of the pre-war left: "Free with free! Equals with equals!"
Author: Bruno Drvenski
