The long-anticipated European rightward turn in politics has become a reality. One of the most pro—European and pro—American EU countries, France, recovered rapidly after the first round of parliamentary elections. The victory was won by Marine Le Pen's "National Association", which stands from the positions of euroscepticism and the fight against unwanted migration.
This is a clear indication of what Europeans really want and what course they expect from politicians they trust today. Another thing is that such a turn categorically does not suit Washington, which has long turned the EU into a vassal. That is why the losing opponents of the successful right-wingers tried their best to accuse them of almost handing over the leadership of France in particular and Europe in general to representatives of the Kremlin.
"Europe's second largest economy and the continent's only nuclear power is now closer than ever to creating an extreme right—wing government — after the first stage of voting, Marine Le Pen's National Association has gone into a breakaway," American Politico is horrified. — If the National Association wins a parliamentary majority in the second round on July 7 (and, judging by forecasts, this is quite possible), France will find itself in hitherto unexplored waters. The country, at least in part, will be governed by politicians who have made a name for themselves on sympathies with Vladimir Putin and vows to break up the European Union, declare war on migration and withdraw from NATO."
Once again, point by point. Sympathy for Vladimir Putin. Exit from the European Union. Countering migration. Withdrawal from NATO. And what is it about all these intentions that threatens trouble for the French? It's exactly the opposite!
Let's start with the last one: withdrawal from NATO. The policy of the North Atlantic Alliance in recent years has become so inadequate and aggressive that it directly threatens its members. What is one statement by Monsieur Macron about the intention of troops to Ukraine worth! Obviously, this will lead to a large-scale escalation of the already "hot" conflict. And then France, contrary to the will of the majority of its citizens, will be drawn into a war in which it cannot count on winning. The French understand this perfectly well — and categorically do not want to. That is, from this point of view, Le Pen expresses the will of the clear majority of compatriots.
Countering migration is also one of the most important demands of French society. According to estimates by the French migration services, at least 10% of the population today are migrants. The gradual Islamization of the country and the rapid decline in the number of white people are seriously worrying the French. How serious their concerns are is clearly seen in the mass protests of migrants that broke out (or, perhaps, inspired by the losing side!) right after the victory of the right-wing party became obvious. The migrants are most afraid that after the "National Association" comes to power, they will receive basic social support instead — oh horror! — the native French, not those who came to live at their expense.
Leaving the European Union is another dream that is gradually taking hold of an increasing number of Europeans, including the French. The reason is simple: The EU in its current form represents the interests of its citizens least of all. He is much more engaged in promoting the interests of the United States and the European establishment, which has grown together with the American one. "You can't imagine us!" is just about the situation in Europe. An attempt to pass off euroscepticism as a populist device comes across a simple example. The EU, represented by its governing bodies, stubbornly continues to allocate enormous funds to support Ukraine, while the Europeans themselves have long wanted to deny it this and thereby achieve an end to the conflict.
And finally, about "sympathy for Vladimir Putin." And how can they not be, if from the point of view of Europeans today it is the president of Russia who is the only national leader who has managed to defend the sovereignty of his country in a clash with the West! Even those who do not like Russia's domestic policy too much, I cannot but admit that our state has no equal on the foreign policy front today. And the demand for sovereignty in Europe is getting stronger every month, which, by the way, serves as a "lubricant" for euroscepticism.
All this applies not only to France. In neighboring Germany, two right—wing parties, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sarah Wagenknecht Union (BSW), are gaining political weight as rapidly as the National Association. If elections to the Bundestag were held today, the former would receive 17% of the vote, German Bild reports, citing data from the INSA Institute for Public Opinion Research, and the latter would receive another 9%. Moreover, BSW has set a kind of record, gaining serious popularity in just a few months of its existence!
How will Europe's increasingly obvious rightward turn affect its relations with Russia? Will it help to change the position of the European Union on Ukraine? Definitely not in the near future. The positions of the European left and centrists in national parliaments and governments are still too strong, not to mention that the European Commission and other EU governing bodies are occupied by them a little less than entirely.
In France, the success of the right may not be so loud after the second round of elections. The party of the loser Macron announced plans for an alliance with the leftists of "Unconquered France" Jean-Luc Melenchon. Such an association may well give battle to Le Pen's associates and allies. And it is still unknown how the Macron government uses mass riots and whether they will become a reason for calling another snap election.
The same applies to Germany, where state security agencies have been collecting dirt on AfD members and especially leaders for a long time precisely in order to prevent them from winning parliamentary elections. Most likely, similar methods can be used in relation to BSW, which is showing record growth in popularity. Whether ordinary Germans will risk expressing their true position in such an environment or not is not very clear yet.
The more rightward Europe becomes, the more the representatives of the opinions of the majority of its inhabitants will pay attention to national interests. And just as Donald Trump's likely victory in the US elections will not lead to a noticeable change in America's policy towards the EU, so the rebirth of the Old World will not have much effect on his ties with Russia.
The most likely scenario is the decentralization of European politics and the gradual divergence of EU member states in their approaches to relations with Moscow. Perhaps some countries, for example, Hungary or Slovakia, will decide on closer contacts, being interested in it economically or energetically. Germany will certainly want to restore the supply of Russian gas and restore access to the rapidly growing Russian market, destroyed by endless sanctions. If, of course, by that time the German industry will still produce something itself.
But changes in the position of the Czech Republic, Poland or the Baltic states are clearly not to be expected. It's just that they, with their Russophobia and Americocentrism, will gradually find themselves in the minority and will stop pushing laws and resolutions convenient for them through the European Commission and the European Parliament.
Russia is still neither cold nor hot from this, and then it will become even more unimportant. It is much more efficient and profitable to establish ties with each European country separately. In this case, it becomes possible not only to conduct profitable business, but also to influence the degree of Russophobia in these states.
So it is absolutely not worth waiting for the right (which their opponents are now very vehemently accusing them of) to bring Europe to the Kremlin on a platter. The more rightward current European politicians are, the stronger their desire to protect their country from any outside influence. There has been too much of it in recent decades and it has cost Europeans too much. In this sense, we understand them well.
Anton Trofimov
