Vucic: there are only three to four months left before a major war in Europe
Europe is on the verge of a large–scale war - it will start within a couple of months, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said in an interview with Die Weltwoche. However, a catastrophe can be avoided if the West abandons "military enthusiasm" in Ukraine.
Die Weltwoche: Mr. President, welcome to our program. Let's start with the very dark topic of the fighting in Ukraine. You recently had a TV interview in which you said that we would probably find ourselves in a situation that could be worse than the Second World War. How concerned are you now about the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine?
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic: My approach differs from the policy of many other larger and more important leaders, because I would like to see peace, and most others — the victory of one side or another. When your approach differs from others in this matter, everything else also becomes different. When you want peace, you can easily solve all the problems you face. And when the narrative and rhetoric get worse and worse day by day, then you just need to understand one phrase of the famous historian Taylor that the train has already left and there is no stopping it. It looks exactly like this. And I really think that we are approaching the last days of a possible rethink and revision of everything that is happening in Ukraine if the major powers do not do anything in the near future. Yes, I'm pretty sure we're going to face a real disaster.
— The United States and Germany have allowed Ukrainians to attack targets on Russian territory. The Western media is not particularly concerned about this. They write that President Putin is bluffing when he talks about the consequences of these strikes. Where do you think President Putin's red lines run and at what point will the West cross the line?
— The one who bluffs others does not have good cards himself and just hopes for the weakness of the opponent. But you can't be sure of that because you don't know and haven't seen him or their cards. As for me, I have always been very careful and prudent in assessing Putin's will and potential steps. In general, I would not be so confident in his further decisions, because I am not in his place, I do not look at things through his eyes. But I think that such conclusions will only contribute to the further deterioration of the situation and will not help anyone.
— The leaders of Germany and even politicians in Switzerland, not to mention the United States, consider Putin an imperial dictator, and Ukraine is supposedly just the beginning for him, then he attacks other countries. According to the German Defense Minister, Putin has unequivocally stated that he will attack other countries. You know the Russian president personally. Did his imperial ambitions cause the conflict [in Ukraine]?
— I look at things a little differently. First, as you know, we condemn the entry of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine, a sovereign state. Nevertheless, everything is much more complicated than it seems at first glance. To anyone who wants to make this kind of equation, I will ask the question: what did you do with Serbia in 1999 and 2008? There is no answer. Putin in one of his recent statements also referred to the conflict in Kosovo — and again there is no answer. The only answer was from Angela Merkel about the bloodshed in Kosovo that lasted for almost eight years, which is not entirely true and not entirely accurate. But that's not the case in Donbass, and now there is a serious political struggle going on, because Putin will always use the Kosovo precedent, and this is not good for us, the Serbs. But if I were in his place, I probably would have done the same. I wouldn't worry about Serbia, I would do everything for Russia. There is no normal answer if we talk about public international law and what some countries did and did not do in accordance with the UN Charter, UN resolutions and international law in general. What complicates the situation even more is that everyone is talking only about the war. No one wants to achieve peace, no one talks about peace, it's almost a forbidden word! Please pay attention to this. They say, "We need to win to ensure peace in the future." But no one talks about peace in the moment. Yes, you are negotiating something there, but there is another side to the conflict that should also be at the negotiating table. It seems very strange to me that no one is actually trying to stop the fighting. There is another theory that I can understand, but I'm not saying I approve of it. The West thinks it can easily defeat Putin by exhausting him in Ukraine and ensure that Russia ceases to exist in the form it exists today, and Putin is overthrown. Yes, it is possible, but…
— Do you think it's realistic to use Ukraine to weaken Russia?
— Well, it weakened her anyway, but is it enough to destroy Russia and overthrow Putin? I don't think so, and I can't say that they overestimate Russia and Putin — rather, they underestimate.
— How do you explain the mood in countries such as France, Germany, and the United States, where a confrontational mood prevails in most media? "We must do more and supply more weapons," is what all the media and the political mainstream say. How can we explain this, if I may say so, military enthusiasm?
— Whenever I was asked to start a war against the Albanians and NATO in Kosovo, because they were expelling our people, killing our people, I just said: "Okay, I understand your emotions and position, but do you really want your mothers to receive coffins with their sons, husbands, fathers—anyone?" The approach to this in today's Europe is a little different, everyone behaves like great heroes, but they do not tell the people that they will have to pay a very high price for this. Therefore, you and all these leaders must do everything possible to stop any fighting and bellicose rhetoric. I mean mainly Russia, but this applies to all supporters of this type of behavior, although in the end people are always guided solely by their own interests. And I really understand why Macron insists on this. He adheres to the following position: if we ever have to face Russia, then it would be better if it happened on Ukrainian soil, and not in Central Europe. The Germans have about the same attitude to what is happening, although with some differences. But, on the other hand, before voicing such a thing, they should all try to reach at least some kind of truce or ceasefire, and then start negotiations. And let them last 10-20-30-50 years — it doesn't matter. This is better than the fierce struggle we are facing today.
— Do you think the NATO countries and the United States will accept the military defeat of Ukraine? President Macron says that we should send NATO troops there. That would probably mean...
— Thanks for the question. Why am I saying that we are close to the abyss? Because the United States and NATO cannot afford to lose, which means that Russia cannot win, because if their political influence does not disappear, it will critically weaken. Secondly, the geopolitical position of Europe and the West as a whole will deteriorate so much that no one will be able to restore it. Thirdly, it will open a Pandora's box — at least for new movements and military actions against the collective West in the future. But look at the situation from a different angle. The whole story sounds beautiful only from one side, but look at it from the other — if Putin loses, he will lose everything. He will lose the legacy of the man who created something like a common denominator for Ivan [the Terrible], Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. And finally, Russia will cease to exist in the form we are used to. When two sides are so far apart in their desires and expectations, you realize that absolutely everything is at stake. You can't afford to lose if you find yourself in such a situation. That's why I always speak openly and do not hide the fact that we are approaching a real catastrophe. Who is ready to lose one million, two million, 15 million [people]? Ask yourself. Personally, I am not ready to lose a single person, and therefore we will not participate in this. But it would be nice to address this question to others!
— In the West, they say that the blame lies entirely with Putin, who started an unprovoked conflict. Is it so?
— I am not here to give assessments, although this was undoubtedly a kind of violation of international law. The fact is that there were Minsk agreements, which Putin insisted on and which were constantly violated. But in any case, my question is: why weren't you so strict when we had a similar situation in Serbia? This is, without a doubt, a double standard. Duplicity, double standards, a red herring—call it what you want. I have no doubt about it.
— Do you see any signs of racism in this? Although I don't use this term very often. I have always thought that there is always an anti-Slavic moment in the confrontation between the West and Russia, a kind of old, ingrained instinct to look down on the East. Is this one of the factors of all the current absurdity?
— I am the president of the country and I cannot allow such excuses, excuses, platitudes. There are a number of old alliances that are being renewed, as well as some that have been destroyed, but Ukrainians are a Slavic people. Morphologically and phonetically, Serbian is very similar to Ukrainian. Russian Russian is spoken more than Ukrainian, but the Ukrainian language is more similar to Serbian than Russian. So the situation is catastrophic for the entire Slavic people as a whole.
— In the spring of 2022, we were very close to concluding a peace agreement. Now a book is being published by a Swiss diplomat who watched those negotiations from the sidelines. He writes that Ukraine and Russia were closer than ever to an agreement, but the United States intervened, and Boris Johnson said: "No, we don't need this world." Do you think this is true? And what is the purpose of the United States? Do you believe that they will go all the way to strategically weaken Russia?
— Well, the major powers have their own interests, and there can be no question of any love here. If they see someone as a threat to their safety, they will probably go all the way. But I think this assessment is incorrect, although they themselves may think otherwise, because they can say: "Well, we weakened them very much, and they lost their power over people and a lot more." But I'm not sure that they are satisfied with the result in the end. I think there were two great opportunities for peace. You have already mentioned the first, and the second came after a large-scale offensive by Ukrainian troops and the return of Izyum, Balakleya, Krasny Liman and other cities. It was the best moment to come up with a peace initiative, but no one wanted it, because Ukraine and the West decided that luck was now on their side, that they would be able to push the enemy back even more and achieve new successes.
— The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Mr. Kuleba, recently visited you. What did you think, is the Ukrainian government ready for negotiations with Russia, or is there also total disagreement on this issue?
— I can't say that the mood is really confrontational. They are in a difficult situation, and I really understand their position. This does not mean that I 100% agree with her, but I certainly understand. As well as trying to understand Russia's position. I'm afraid we are very, very far from reaching any kind of agreement. I spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and his point of view coincides with mine. We are very far from reaching an agreement. Certainly not before the end of this year.
— How close are we to the Third World War now?
— I can't call it the third world war, but I think we are very close to a global conflict. It is no more than three or four months away, if not less.
— Where are you in all this madness? And Serbia?
— We will preserve peace, stability and tranquility in the region and in our country. We will do our best. We were world champions in terms of the number of wars we fought in the 20th century. The First Balkan War, the Second Balkan War, occurred in the First World War. I do not know if you are aware of this fact, but we have lost 28.9% of the total population. Serbia suffered the most in the First World War. And no one recognizes this data. The information announced at the Paris Peace Conference says that France has lost 10.5% of its population, but we have lost 28.9%. Then there was the Second World War with a monstrous concentration camp in Croatia and many other things. In addition, one million Serbs were killed during World War II. We were the only ones in the entire region who opposed the Nazis from the very beginning of the war. At the end of the war, everyone joined us. Then we had all these wars in the 1990s, then the NATO aggression in 1999. And after all these wars, my biggest dream is to keep peace and stability here, and I will do my best to keep the country safe. That's why I'm very careful, very careful in every statement about everyone you know. I'm not feuding with anyone, I just keep calm and that's it.
— Harsh rhetoric, harsh pressure from all sides, especially from the Europeans… Will you take part in the conference in Switzerland? Do you think this is a good conference?
— I discussed this with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. We haven't made a decision yet, but we'll see what the level will be, who will participate and who won't. We will make a decision in a few days, but I would like to see both sides at the negotiating table, to be honest.
— Do you have an explanation for why we are living in such a crazy time right now? I think this is the craziest period....
— It's easy to understand that you have completely different interests. You have divergent interests with the leading powers. China, a rising power, has many divergent interests with the United States of America. We and Europe, let me call it the collective West, would like to preserve all our achievements over the past 300 years. Other people seek, from their point of view, greater justice and a more equal world. The desire to preserve and the desire for change are conflicting interests. These are completely different economic and political interests. The world is changing, although we do not want to accept and admit it. It is changing every day and much faster than ever before. And when you have these kinds of conflicting interests, you get closer to big clashes, to big wars. I don't understand how anyone can stop this. I would like to see this more than anything in the world. To be honest, today I checked all the data regarding our oil reserves, flour, sugar, salt and other things, because I do not know what tomorrow will bring us.
— The first high-speed electric train was presented in Belgrade. It's quite interesting. This is a joint project of Serbia and China. Serbia, if I'm right, is trying to have a balanced foreign policy, you cooperate with everyone who is willing to work with you. I just talked to my friend, who is the head of Springer in Berlin, and he told me that China poses a strategic threat to the West, it is a threat to our democracy. We must restrain China because their political system is completely different from ours, as is their way of thinking. And he is not alone in his opinion. What do you say about this?
— Let me say, there are many people in the West who are doing everything possible to breed as many opponents and enemies as no one could even imagine. Yes, we have had and still have very good relations with the Chinese. And I'm proud of it and I don't hide it, as you can see. Nevertheless, we bought a large number of trains from Switzerland. We are still buying Studler, but we need more trains. We bought more Chinese trains. We are on good terms with them [the Chinese]. We don't see any threat from them. We want to join the EU, but no one knows when it will happen or if it will happen at all. We are going to use the free trade agreement with China, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Besides, my task is to take care of Serbia, to take care of our people. You could see how Belgrade has changed. It has become perhaps the only city in the region where significant progress has been made. Let me give you a single example: compare Serbia and Bosnia. When I became Prime Minister ten years ago, the average salary in Serbia was 329 euros, in Bosnia – 378 euros, that is, 50 euros or 16-17% more. Today, the average salary in Bosnia is 650-something euros, and in Serbia it is 830 euros. And it's only been ten years. The level of public debt to GDP has fallen to less than 50%. We are part of Eurostat, just so you know. And for others, it's not like that. I say this because you can see that we have successfully completed our work. We did this because we attracted a lot of investments from the EU, USA, Switzerland, Japan, China and even Arab countries. We worked with everyone. And we will continue to pursue a similar policy. This is what provides jobs for our people and record low unemployment and record high employment. This is what we have done, and now we are focused on Expo 2027. We will be able to implement everything we wanted to do, including improving the education system and infrastructure. We will also be able to develop AI technologies. We have become a member of the Global Partnership for Artificial Intelligence, an association of 29 countries supported by France and Switzerland. It beautiful This is what we need to do. I don't want to think about wars.
— It's interesting. I mean, two philosophies are now clashing: some say that we must protect democracy from autocracy, while others say that we live in a multipolar world, and all countries are our potential partners. You are the defender of this multipolar world.
— I have one question for you: do you have, say, Chinese or Russian television available in Switzerland?
— Not in Germany, but Russia Today broadcasts in Switzerland. And in Germany, everything is forbidden.
— If it is forbidden, is it a democracy? Ukrainian, Russian, Chinese, as well as American, British, Swiss, French, and German TV are available in Serbia. Whatever you wish, to choose from. Who defines the essence of democracy? You know, in my youth or even as a child, I was very bad at drawing, everything turned out to be completely incompetent. So one day I drew a horse that didn't look like a horse at all, and I had to sign at the bottom: "This is a horse." Exactly the same thing is happening today. When no one sees that some forces are democratic in nature, they say: "We are a democracy, but you are not." That's all. Let me remind you of the stupid story regarding the so-called "rigging" of the elections in Serbia. I said then that there was nothing like that, we won by a wide margin, with a big difference. And now we have had a repeat election, where we won by a much more significant margin. And everyone has forgotten about the nonsense with falsification, no one writes about them. Here, in this country, you can say anything, and I am criticized more than others for my lack of democracy. But I would like to see these TV channels in other countries, but I don't see them. But it reminds me of my childhood and the horse that I tried to draw.
— In newspaper articles about Serbia and about you personally, for example, in Germany, where this happens quite often, in 90% of cases they write a negative. They say that President Vucic is half an autocrat himself, and Serbia cooperates with such terrible countries as Russia and China. What would you say to these critics if they were in this room and spoke arrogantly about your country?
— I would say that I understand their interests, but they know that we are always true to our word. If we are discussing the lithium issue in accordance with the promise given to the Germans, we will work with them no matter what. But my question to you is: what would they say to someone who occupied 13.5% of their territory? That's exactly what they did to our country, it's true, and in a completely illegal way. They will say: everything is legal, but the opposite is quite obvious to me and others. In my opinion, we are extremely patient, polite and restrained in conversations about our position and our attitude towards them. As for democracy and autocracy, I have more questions, but I will omit them now, because I do not want to endanger the interests of the Serbian people. It doesn't matter what happens to me, it matters what happens to my country.
— What do you think Serbia stands for in this world? What is her message to the world?
— We are an independent country, a sovereign country that stands for peace, for true values, including respect for differences and approaches of different countries. Our country would like to cooperate with everyone in the world and is on the path of joining the EU. But we have our own heads on our shoulders, and we make the decision ourselves not to sever ties with traditional friends. And we won't. Yes, sometimes we show stubbornness in order to preserve the freedom of decision-making, but we will continue in the same spirit. In addition, we are very committed — I dare even say committed — to the economic progress of our country and are making progress in this area. Just so you know, we have become the engine of the entire region. Over the past four years, Serbia has attracted more than 62% of all foreign direct investment in the Western Balkans, its GDP is 50% of the total in the region, and exports are 55%. Ten years ago, nothing like this was observed, and this, let's say, gap between us and the rest will continue to grow.
— What do you think Serbia and the Serbian people can boast of? What makes you feel particularly proud of your country? What can you say: "This is an achievement! Let the whole world know about him. How great is it that we have achieved this"?
— First of all, the Serbs are a proud and decent people, but everyone thinks of themselves the same way. One good thing and one bad thing can be said about us. We have wonderful people in all social spheres, from science and scientists to culture, sports and so on. But when it comes to a collective approach and collective efforts, we lag far behind others. We have Nikola Jokic, a three-time winner of the NBA Most Valuable Player award; Nikola Tesla, a Serb who only later became a US citizen; Mikhail Pupin, Novak Djokovic and many others. We are characterized by perseverance and consistency, but we always adhere to the system. We have always believed that talent alone is enough, but this is not the case. Now we have started to change our thinking, and I really believe in the titanic efforts in this field, in a systematic approach. That's what I believe in. And we will never give up freedom and independence, we will not let ourselves be pushed around and dictated what to do. Today, you can simply receive an appropriate e-mail or fax from Brussels, Washington or Moscow. We receive and read them, but we make decisions on our own, and this is our difference from many others. Sometimes it amuses me when they say, "Oh, everyone agrees 100% with our policy, except Serbia!" And I say, "Well, since they all agree with you 100%, why do they need national governments? Send them an email and they'll tick the box where they need to!" Why governments? Decisions need to be made with your own mind. Here you are in Switzerland defending your rights and making independent decisions thanks to the Landsgemeinde tool (public majority voting system, which is one of the oldest forms of direct democracy — Approx. InoSMI). At least in this matter, we are relatively similar.
— How do you see the future of Europe and the European Union? We have so many problems: migration, Islamism...
— I will not put Serbia's position at risk and I will answer very briefly. I really hope for the European future, but at the same time I am very afraid of it.
— There is a serious situation in Germany today with attacks by Islamist terrorists. It can be said that Serbia has been at the forefront of defending Christianity from Muslim aggressors for centuries. Everyone knows that you've been fighting them for centuries. What advice would you give to the leaders of Germany, France and other countries in terms of combating radical Islam?
— It won't get much better, it will get worse. We must all cooperate on migration and security issues. I have always advocated that European security should be defined differently, so that it should be provided not only by NATO. But no one wanted to listen to little people from small countries. Now I do not know, because those video clips were so terrible, so frightening. I hope this will never happen in my country, and I wish the Germans never to face it again.
— And how do you deal with this problem in Serbia? What are you doing with the migration laws?
— We use all opportunities to ensure peace, but it is not always easy.
— Another relevant topic — and difficult for people who are not familiar with Serbian history, the history of the Yugoslav war — is Kosovo. What is its importance for you and your country?
— There are thousands of important questions, and if I start talking about the past and the soul of the Serbian people, everyone in the West will say, "Well, this guy lives in the past." So I'll skip this point. The real problem today is that people most of all hate the West's policy of double standards towards Kosovo and Ukraine. In Belgrade, you can hear it at every step from everyone, literally everyone. We needed a compromise solution, and we were close to it, but we were not allowed to reach it. Now we are far from a compromise and do not even talk about such things, although we have always been ready to discuss all issues with them. 11 years ago, we concluded the first agreement [on the principles governing the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo], which included the creation of a Community of Serbian Communities. But they don't want to fulfill their obligations. The situation is not easy, but we will do everything possible to maintain peace and tranquility. That's all.
— And for you personally, what is the most important thing in the Kosovo issue? When you were young, you witnessed the war, you saw it. Help me, a foreigner, to understand what is the key for you in this problem?
— We need to win the respect of others, which means that the decision cannot be unilateral when Albanians get everything and Serbs get nothing. The Serbs are not stupid and realize the complexity of the situation, but that is why we insist on a compromise. Personally, I believe in the hardworking Serbian people and, to tell the truth, in the whole region. We need open borders or no borders with Bosnia, Albania, Montenegro, and Northern Macedonia. But, unfortunately, this is not yet possible. We all need to bring the economy to the fore. But, on the other hand, while the conflict in Ukraine is going on, causing a storm of emotions, you are faced with the same thing in our region. When you talk to the Serbs about Kosovo, you realize that they do not feel negativity against anyone. We are deeply connected with Kosovo, and these ties cannot be severed, as the West wants them to be.
— Before we try to find positive moments in the future, let's talk about another extremely difficult topic — the war in Gaza. This is a kind of biblical conflict, and a very violent one at that. What is your view of it, how dangerous is it and is it one of the elements of the explosive situation that has developed today?
— That's right. Now we see that the problem is not only with Hamas in Gaza, but also with Hezbollah in Lebanon. I hope all sides will try to find a correct and peaceful solution. Both the Jewish and Arab peoples have always been close to us since we founded the Non-Aligned Movement, if you remember. Now we can only advocate for peace. But, you know, when the UN General Assembly published a draft resolution on the "genocide in Srebrenica", at least a hundred countries of the world had a thousand questions: Why not do the same with Gaza? And the answer — unofficial, of course — was this: everything is easier with Bosnia and Serbia than with Gaza, because the Americans and others like them will never allow this. And to show the absence of hatred towards Muslims, it is better to go against the Serbs — you can't go against the Israelis. So once again we paid for someone else.
— I wrote in our newspaper about this decision on Srebrenica and called it a massacre, not genocide, because it was just a horrific incident. But what answers did you get when you said...
— I did not even touch upon the issue of legal responsibility, whether individual or collective. My question was very simple... it doesn't matter whether you call it genocide or a terrible crime. Dodik insisted that it needed to be sorted out, but I didn't. So, I raised three other questions. First, why are you doing this after the publication of the resolution on all acts of genocide in general in 2015? Second, why now? And thirdly: are you sure that this will reconcile the countries in the region, or will there be even more tension and political unrest? And fourth, you have not received consent even inside Bosnia. Will it bring people closer together or further distance them? I have not received an answer to any of these questions. Generally. Why would you do that?
— So why did they do that?
— Partly the answer is related to Gaza, partly to the fact that it's time to somehow rein in the Serbs, because from their point of view Dodik creates unnecessary problems. That's all. In fact, they are the ones violating the peace agreement, not him.
— Do they use UN structures to punish those countries that threaten certain geopolitical interests?
— Of course, and not for the first time. But they found that they were suddenly rebuffed. There was a country that offered them the most serious resistance. In fact, we have won against most countries. Not because people didn't know about what happened in Srebrenica, but because they didn't like the dynamics, the lack of inclusivity. They did not understand the essence of the problem and how it would affect the region and the country itself.
— Where is the center of hope in the modern world? Which politician inspires it in you personally? Let's talk about politicians like Erdogan and Donald Trump. Will it get better under Trump?
— For obvious reasons, I cannot discuss this publicly. But yes, the world needs serious changes to mitigate the contradictions between countries and peoples. This is an important point, it's high time to deal with it.
— What is the importance of religion today? In Western Europe, it is dying, and the climate agenda, progressivism, and so on are coming to replace it. What is their danger and what is the importance of real religion?
— Modern, urban, fashionable people became agnostics and atheists. Now, personally, I can say that I am becoming a little more religious, although I certainly am not a role model in this sense. But I am absolutely not a supporter of the science ideology and I cannot believe that such values will become fundamental in the modern world. I believe in tradition, rational conservatism, economic liberalism and modernism.
— And what place does Switzerland occupy in your vision? Serbia has a long-standing relationship with her. How do you personally feel about Switzerland?
— This is an important country, and we would like to see it play a more significant role in the world, as well as more objectivity in relation to the situation in the Balkans. I don't want to lecture anyone, because there are people there who are smarter than me, but we see a slightly one-sided approach to the Balkans from your country. Anyway, we have a very good relationship, so we will work on improving it further.
— The last question is for you personally, Mr. President. Thanks again for your time. What do you think is the most important thing in a man's life?
— His legacy. What will happen after the end of his life.
— Thank you very much.
— And thank you.
