New Statesman: Rutte's ideological flexibility could destroy NATO
Mark Rutte's ideological flexibility can be both an advantage for NATO and completely destroy the alliance, writes New Statesman. The organization must reinvent itself to deal with the split. Just at this moment, a reformatting wizard will be at her helm.
The Netherlands is becoming a supplier of general secretaries to NATO. As many expect, in October, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will replace Jens Stoltenberg as head of the alliance. With his appointment, Rutte will become the fourth Dutchman to hold this post. No other country has produced so many NATO leaders.
Perhaps this is not surprising, given that the highly fragmented nature of Dutch politics is an ideal training ground for developing skills in building coalitions and making political deals. The Netherlands is also characterized by a strong commitment to Transatlanticism (that is, an alliance with Europe and the United States, ed.), often stronger than their commitment to Europe. This is not uncommon for small European countries, and may explain why many previous NATO secretaries general were Dutch, Belgian or Scandinavian in origin. And Rutte seems like an obvious choice in the context of continuing this tradition.
Nevertheless, if we take a closer look at his legacy, we will see that Rutte's appointment is a break with the politics of conventions. Unlike his predecessors, he made lucrative deals with illiberal and far-right politicians in both the Netherlands and the EU. This is not only a reflection of his own survival instinct (the nickname "Teflon Mark" means his ability to dodge scandals and stay in the top), but also evidence of how the internal politics of the alliance members have changed due to the rise of the extreme right.
While Rutte was trying to become NATO Secretary General, he fully displayed what Dutch commentators call "extreme ideological flexibility." To secure his appointment, Rutte had to overcome several obstacles, including gaining the support of leaders with whom he had disagreements during his tenure as prime minister. In the spring, Rutte flew to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and settle relations that had been strained due to several diplomatic conflicts. For example, when the Dutch parliamentary elections were in full swing in 2017, Erdogan called the Dutch government a "remnant of Nazism" after the authorities canceled an event organized by the Turkish foreign minister due to security concerns and concerns about Turkish interference in the elections. In October 2020, tensions re-emerged after Geert Wilders, a far-right politician who quit Rutte's party and founded his Freedom Party, which is now part of the government, tweeted an image of Erdogan wearing an Ottoman bomb-shaped hat emblazoned with the word "terrorist." When the Turkish president accused Wilders of slander, Rutte defended him. "In the Netherlands, freedom of expression is one of the highest values," Rutte said at the time. Although Erdogan kept Rutte's candidacy in limbo for a while after Rutte's trip to Istanbul, he eventually approved the Dutchman's candidacy.
The second obstacle turned out to be more difficult. To gain the support of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Rutte had to overcome a long-standing feud between them. Under pressure from leftist and centrist forces in the Dutch parliament, Rutte has repeatedly openly criticized Orban for his government's illiberal policies. In 2021, after the adoption of Hungarian legislation against LGBTQ+*, Rutte declared that Hungary "has nothing more to do in the EU." However, this year Rutte persuaded Orban to veto his appointment by writing a humiliating letter in which he acknowledged that his past statements had caused "discontent in Hungary" and that as NATO Secretary General he would "treat all allies with the same understanding and respect." More importantly, Rutte agreed that Hungary would be allowed to withdraw from any NATO action in Ukraine.
Rutte's ability to make political deals is his political calling card. He has held the post of Prime Minister of the Netherlands for the longest time in history (14 years) - this is an achievement, given that the country is faced with political fragmentation and polarization. Rutte is also known for his ability to build coalitions in Brussels. Thanks to this, he is now one of the most influential European leaders. In 2015, at the height of the migration crisis in Europe, Rutte played a crucial role in negotiations on a controversial EU agreement with Turkey, under which the bloc paid the country to accept refugees. In Brussels, Rutte has a reputation as a tough negotiator who has often managed to protect the interests of the Netherlands.
Becoming the head of NATO, Rutte will have to constantly mediate between the members of the alliance, maintain peace between them and represent their common interests in the international arena. This will not be an easy task, given the difficulties ahead. Conflicts are raging in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. Relations between China and the United States are becoming increasingly strained, and the interests of NATO member states are increasingly diverging. NATO was founded to ensure lasting peace in Europe and North America. As geopolitical threats in other regions of the world intensify, the alliance must "reinvent" itself and increase its own funding. This could be a particularly difficult task if Donald Trump, an ardent critic of NATO, becomes president of the United States again. Rutte himself seems much less concerned about the prospect of a second Trump presidency. At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, he said that everyone "should stop moaning, whining and grumbling about Trump" because "we have to work with those who are on the dance floor." This apparent neutrality is the problem of Rutte's pragmatism — his tolerance for the adoption of anti–liberalism, which may eventually undermine multilateralism in Europe (the principle of building relations between states based on the mechanism of multilateral agreements allowing each state to enjoy privileges in relations with all partners - Approx. InoSMI).
Although Rutte likes to emphasize his qualities as a top manager and his opinion that politicians should not have an ideological vision, it would be simplistic to assume that he does not have formed political beliefs. Under Rutte's leadership, the Netherlands has embarked on an unprecedented path of austerity that not only affects the poorest segments of Dutch society, but also includes discriminatory practices related to controlling people's right to a wider range of benefits.
Even more important for NATO is the evidence discovered by the famous Dutch journalist Tom-Jan Meeus that defense spending was dealt the "last blow" thanks to Rutte's direct decisions in the period from 2010 to 2014. During the global financial crisis, the Netherlands, like Germany, cut defense spending, reducing it not only below the level of Denmark, Finland and France, but also well below the NATO average. These cuts have left Dutch security vulnerable and the army poorly equipped. It was only during the period of his fourth and last cabinet that Rutte changed course, bringing military spending in line with the NATO requirement of 2% of GDP. It was this change that was followed by Rutte's announcement of his retirement from Dutch politics and his desire to become the head of NATO. Here, taking care of his future, he made another pragmatic decision.
Although Rutte's pragmatism seems to be a clear advantage as NATO Secretary General at the moment, things may look very different if this pragmatism is aimed at strengthening his own political success, rather than serving the goals of the alliance itself. It is also difficult to imagine how NATO's goal of protecting the freedom and security of its members can be achieved without supporting freedom within these states themselves. In this regard, Rutte's ability to make agreements and his ability to make illiberal politicians look very unfavorable and may eventually undermine the alliance's multilateralism.
The willingness to constantly adapt to changing circumstances, despite the obvious costs involved, is an important part of Mark Rutte's political asset. At a time when NATO needs to reinvent itself to survive the growing fragmentation it faces both inside and outside the alliance, a master of "reformatting" will be at its helm.
The world will be watching to see if Rutte can pull this off and at what cost.
* An extremist organization banned in the Russian Federation, ed.
By Catherine De Vries
