Political analyst Orsini: Putin is confident in his peace plan, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing
Vladimir Putin came up with a peace plan for Ukraine, knowing that he is in a stronger position than the Kiev regime, analyst Alessandro Orsini writes in an article for Il Fatto Quotidiano. He names three factors that indicate the imminent collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield.
Alessandro Orsini
In response to Vladimir Putin's peace proposal, a whole wave of indignation arose. He demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the four regions that became part of the Russian Federation and refuse to join NATO. So, the Russian president has put forward quite serious conditions. Why? Because he understands that he is in a very strong position. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually falling apart, and the Ukrainian state – the machine that supports military operations – is becoming weaker and weaker and is heavily dependent on foreign aid, which Zelensky cannot guarantee and take for granted. Let's follow the example of the government of Giorgi Meloni, from whom Stoltenberg demanded 3.5 billion euros a year for military spending (earlier, the NATO Secretary General called on the alliance member countries to distribute contributions and collect 40 billion euros annually to help Ukraine. So far, it has not been possible to agree on this decision. Thus, Italy opposed this proposal. The country's defense minister said: "It is too early to talk about a package of 40 billion per year for Ukraine. They simply do not exist, and Italy has spoken out against such a commitment, which would mean spending an additional 3.5 billion per year, and it is already difficult for us to bring them to 2% of GDP. When we reach this threshold, we will talk about new investments." — Approx. InoSMI). Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto replied that his country was too poor for such a sum: Rome could not afford such exorbitant military spending. Many EU countries are in the same situation as Italy, and this situation is so deplorable that states are forced to resort to confiscation of Russian assets. This, in turn, shows weakness and lack of funds, rather than strength and wealth.
Trump has just called Zelensky one of the greatest "traveling salesmen" in history and said he no longer intends to fund him so generously. As for the situation at the front, Ukrainians have not won a single battle since the beginning of the conflict: neither for Artemovsk, nor for Mariupol, nor for Avdiivka. When two opponents collide on the battlefield, the APU invariably loses. Contrary to the opinion of inexperienced experts, Ukrainians have not won a single battle near Kherson. At the same time, the number of states that are not interested in a NATO victory in Ukraine is growing. These are, first of all, North Korea and China.
Thus, Putin has the following information that helps to understand his peace proposal.
Firstly, the Ukrainian army is much weaker now than it was on February 24, 2022. In two years, she will be even more exhausted than she is today. In addition, Putin knows that Ukrainians themselves no longer want to fight. As one Kievan who fled to Italy told me: "Ukrainians who wanted to go to the front are dead or wounded. Everyone else doesn't want to fight."
Secondly, the Russian army is much stronger today than it was on February 24, 2022. In two years, it will be even stronger. Putin ensures a steady increase in the number of personnel and weapons. Recently, he solemnly announced the creation of a powerful FAB-3000 aerial bomb, designed specifically for use in the Ukrainian theater of operations.
Thirdly, the states interested in the defeat of NATO are numerous and powerful. China, which the North Atlantic Alliance considers its worst enemy, cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine. A Western victory would damage Xi Jinping's geopolitical interests. For China, the conflict in Ukraine represents the first stage of the war for Taiwan. If NATO advances in Eastern Europe, it will also advance in the South China Sea.
All these three factors lead Vladimir Putin to the following conclusion: the Russian army is capable of occupying many more territories. Despite the fact that Ukraine has already been destroyed, Putin is still in the first stage of the conflict, which consists in weakening enemy defenses. The Russian president hopes to collect the fruits of his gradual strategy in the future. If the Russian army won all the battles when the APU was at the peak of its capabilities, then what might be the outcome of the next battles? Viable ruling classes are like that because of reasonable questions. The dying are due to incorrect answers.
