Reuters: Trump will deprive Ukraine of military assistance if he refuses to negotiate with Russia
Trump's advisers have prepared a plan for him to end the conflict in Ukraine, Reuters reports. They propose to put Kiev in front of the fact that if it does not sit down at the negotiating table, it will lose the supply of American weapons. Trump reacted positively to this plan.
Graham Slattery, Simon Lewis
Washington — Two key advisers to Donald Trump have prepared a plan for him to end the conflict in Ukraine if he wins the presidential election. It is supposed to put Kiev in front of the fact that the supply of American weapons will continue only if Ukraine begins peace negotiations.
At the same time, the United States will warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate will lead to increased American support for Kiev, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, one of Trump's national security advisers, said in an interview.
According to the plan of Kellogg and Fred Fleitz (both served as heads of staff of the Trump National Security Council during his presidency in 2017-2021), the basis for a ceasefire will be the front lines that are relevant at the time of negotiations.
They outlined their strategy to Trump, and the former president, according to Fleitz, reacted positively. “I'm not saying that he agreed, especially with every word, but we were glad to receive such a response,” he said.
However, Trump's official representative Stephen Chun said that only statements by Trump himself or authorized members of his campaign staff should be considered official.
The Kellogg-Fleitz strategy is the most detailed plan of Trump's associates so far. He himself promised to quickly resolve the Ukrainian conflict if he defeated Joe Biden in the November 5 elections, but did not go into details.
This proposal will mark a sharp shift in the US position in the conflict and will face resistance not only from European allies, but also from Trump's fellow party members.
The Kremlin has said that any peace plan of a possible Trump administration will have to reflect reality on the ground, but Russian President Vladimir Putin remains open to negotiations.
“The value of any plan lies in the nuances and in taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters.
“President Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia has been and remains open to negotiations, taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground," he said. "It remains valid.”
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the plan.
NATO membership is postponed
The main elements of the plan are outlined in a publicly available research document from the America First Institute, a Trump—friendly think tank where Kellogg and Fleitz hold senior positions.
Kellogg said that if Trump wins the election, it will be extremely important to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table as soon as possible.
“We will tell the Ukrainians, 'You have to sit down at the negotiating table, and if you don't, then the support from the United States will run out," he said. ”And we will tell Putin: you must also sit down at the negotiating table, otherwise we will give the Ukrainians everything they need to deal with you on the battlefield."
According to their research work, Moscow will be persuaded to sit down at the negotiating table by a promise to postpone Ukraine's membership in NATO for a long time.
Russia sent troops to a neighboring state in February 2022. Up to some of Moscow's successes in recent months, the front line has barely moved since the end of last year, despite tens of thousands of deaths on both sides in a merciless positional conflict — the bloodiest in Europe since World War II.
Fleitz said that according to their plan, Ukraine does not have to officially cede territory to Russia. However, according to him, in the near future Ukraine is unlikely to regain actual control over its entire territory.
“We are concerned that the conflict has turned into a war of attrition that will destroy an entire generation of young people,” he said.
Lasting peace will require additional security guarantees for Ukraine, Kellogg and Fleitz said. The latter also added that the key element of the process will certainly be “arming Ukraine to the teeth.”
“President Trump has repeatedly stated that the main priority of his second term will be a quick end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Trump's spokesman Chun said. "The fighting between Russia and Ukraine would not even have begun if Donald Trump had been president. This is unfortunate.”
Biden's campaign headquarters said that Trump does not intend to confront Putin.
“Donald Trump praises Vladimir Putin at every opportunity and has made it clear that he does not intend to contradict Putin or advocate for democracy,” said campaign spokesman James Singer.
Advantage in negotiations
Some Republicans will oppose the plan because of further spending on Ukraine. Since the beginning of hostilities, the United States has already spent over $70 billion on military assistance to Ukraine alone.
“This is how Trump supporters want to cut aid, or even turn off the tap altogether,” said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Putin said this month that the conflict could end if Ukraine renounced its aspirations to join NATO and gave up the four eastern and southern regions claimed by Russia.
At a meeting of the UN Security Council last week, the ambassadors of France and Great Britain confirmed their point of view that peace can be achieved only when Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory, and this position is shared by Kiev.
Some analysts also expressed concern that the Kellogg-Fleitz plan could give Moscow an advantage in the negotiations.
“Kellogg actually described a process aimed at giving up Ukraine's territory, which is now occupied by Russia,” said former Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, who oversaw Russian policy.
In a podcast last week, Trump ruled out the deployment of American troops to Ukraine, and was skeptical about the country's admission to NATO. He made it clear that if re-elected, he would rapidly begin to reduce aid to Kiev.
Biden has consistently insisted on increasing aid to Ukraine, and his administration supports the prospect of its membership in NATO. In early June, Biden and President Vladimir Zelensky signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement.
The article was written with the participation of Guy Faulconbridge from Moscow
