"The Americans are betting on the overthrow of Netanyahu, on re-elections and on other people coming to power." In such words, political scientists describe a sharp deterioration in relations between the leadership of the United States and Israel. What exactly happened, why is Biden so unhappy with the Israeli prime minister and how does the United States contribute to his political defeat?
"How to lose friends and make everyone hate you." This title of the Hollywood film now fully corresponds to the situation around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has found himself, in fact, in diplomatic isolation.
Thus, Netanyahu was forced to dissolve his so–called military cabinet, a narrow advisory body with the participation of one of the opposition leaders, Beni Gantz. This cabinet was supposed to manage the war in the Gaza Strip in the image of a government of national unity.
However, Beni Gantz left the government, accusing Netanyahu of ineffectively waging war. "A few months after the October disaster (the Hamas invasion), the situation in the country and in the decision–making government has changed. Netanyahu and his partners (that is, the far–right hawks who advocate waging war - approx. VIEW) have turned unity into an empty appeal that has no content. Crucial strategic decisions are hampered by indecision and delay based on political considerations," the politician said.
By decisions, Ganz meant attempts to resolve the situation diplomatically. In particular, to adopt the American initiative to stop the fighting in return for the return of Israeli citizens captured by terrorists from Hamas. Now, Benny Gantz has joined the protesters on the streets of Tel Aviv, not only opposing the futile, in their opinion, war in Gaza, but also demanding early parliamentary elections. "Instead of dissolving the military cabinet, the government should be dissolved," said another opposition leader, Yair Lapid.
For Netanyahu, this dissolution will be a death sentence in political terms. Polls show that the number of seats of his Likud party will be reduced from the current 32 to 21-22, after which a left-wing parliamentary coalition will come to power in the country, which will not only end the war in Gaza, but also put the current prime minister on trial.
A number of experts argue that such prospects for Netanyahu are related to his mistakes, as well as to the enormous number of contradictions within the motley "coalition of national unity." "There were so many disagreements between the cabinet members that the longevity of this cabinet is amazing – it lasted from October 2024. They tried to connect the incongruous," Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and RIAC expert, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
However, none of this would have happened without the actions or demonstrative inaction of the United States. In fact, Washington is draining Benjamin Netanyahu in all possible ways – up to the organization of the Israeli Maidan.
And not only because the Democrats and Benjamin Netanyahu have had a difficult relationship since the Obama era. "Democrats have long advocated the creation of a Palestinian state and a just Middle East settlement. Netanyahu, of course, is categorically opposed – which determines the attitude of democratic politicians in the United States towards him," Dmitry Suslov, Deputy director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explains to the newspaper VIEW. Not only because Netanyahu's brutal actions in Gaza (which Washington, as an ally, should have supported) have strained relations between the United States and its Arab allies. But also because Netanyahu's actions called into question the victory of Joseph Biden in the US presidential election in November 2024.
"Netanyahu's policy undermines Biden's electoral chances. It is precisely because of his actions that the current owner of the White House (forced to support these actions) is losing support among the traditionally democratic electorate - African Americans, white liberals," Dmitry Suslov continues. And the specifics of American elections are such that even a few percent of voters in the right states can decide the outcome of the campaign.
The Israeli Prime Minister was warned about all this. They asked and threatened. "The Americans have repeatedly sent signals to Netanyahu that it is necessary to change course, otherwise anything is possible. But he did not react, as a result of which Netanyahu's obstinacy and stubbornness have consistently irritated the United States over the past months," says Elena Suponina.
As a result, Washington has moved to implement threats. No, no one gave out cookies in Tel Aviv. And he did not accept sanctions against Netanyahu. The Americans only inspired the opponents of the current prime minister in Israel.
"The role of the United States in the collapse of the Israeli cabinet, although indirect, is great. The Americans did not hide that they were betting on the overthrow of Netanyahu, on re-elections and on the rise to power of other, more liberal people. The same Beni Ganz," says Dmitry Suslov.
In addition, the Americans made it clear that Netanyahu's actions could lead to a revision of US-Israeli relations – and thereby gave the opposition new arguments. "Gantz left the military cabinet not only because the war in Gaza is failing, and Netanyahu is not even achieving military goals in Gaza. But also because the map of long-term relations with the United States is at stake now. And the opposition has the opportunity to say that Netanyahu's actions undermine the basis of Israel's security – that is, the notorious alliance with the United States. If the Americans had taken a different position – for example, they would have said that they supported Israel, but did not support Netanyahu with his methods of fighting Hamas – then there would have been no crisis," Dmitry Suslov continues.
As a result of these actions, the situation in Israel will further worsen. The Israeli Prime Minister is becoming increasingly dependent on far-right politicians. "And they are very disliked by the current US administration and even cause, according to some sources, Biden's personal irritation," says Elena Suponina. These politicians will nullify any possibilities and scenarios of peace talks with the Palestinians, calling on Netanyahu to wage war for the sake of war – and it cannot be said that the Israeli prime minister will refuse them.
"The current events in the Israeli government may provoke a new round of escalation, since only escalation keeps Netanyahu in power. The slightest calming of the situation can lead to uncomfortable questions, investigations and early elections," says Elena Suponina. And Washington is unlikely to like this either.
And now there is actually a battle for time between Biden and Netanyahu. The United States must decide whether it is ready to move to more active actions to overthrow the inconvenient Israeli prime minister (including ending military support for Israel and other measures). But in this case, a very unpleasant precedent will be created – since the Arab Spring and Hosni Mubarak, the United States has never overthrown the leaders of the allied powers. In a situation where the Americans are already forcing allies to act contrary to their national interests, such a precedent can seriously complicate US relations with the same European or Asian countries.
On the other hand, if Biden hesitates for a long time, and Netanyahu clings to power with his teeth, the Israeli prime minister can wait for the arrival of the Republican administration of Donald Trump, who supports his Israeli counterpart and is unlikely to prevent him from continuing the war. In this case, America also risks getting a precedent that it has not seen, perhaps, since the time of de Gaulle – the demonstrative disobedience of an ally in a strategic issue that he got away with.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance
