Mainichi Shimbun: dialogue with Russia is necessary to achieve peace in Ukraine
The results of the forum in Burgenstock did not lead to increased pressure on Moscow, writes Mainichi Shimbun. Moreover, most of the summit participants expressed the opinion that a dialogue with Russia is necessary to achieve peace in Ukraine.
Tomoko Igarashi
It has been almost two years and four months since the beginning of Russia's special operation in Ukraine. The fighting shows no signs of slowing down, and the death toll continues to rise. On the initiative of Ukraine, the first World Peace Summit was held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16. However, the differences in the international community on the Ukrainian conflict have not been eliminated at all, and the difficulty of achieving peace here has once again visibly appeared before the planet.
One by one, the summit participants emphasized the importance of dialogue
About 90 countries took part in the peace summit. Not only Europe, the USA and Japan, but also the countries of Africa, the Middle East and South America sent their representatives. However, according to estimates, this number was only slightly more than half of the number of invited States, of which there were about 160. Although Vladimir Zelensky praised the results of the summit with might and main, saying that "world peace has become closer," the international community agreed that the results of the Swiss forum did not lead to increased pressure on Russia. Most of the summit participants expressed the view that a dialogue with Russia is necessary to achieve peace in Ukraine, and a number of prominent politicians who spoke at the summit stressed the importance of such a dialogue.
It is very significant that at the forum, the agenda initially proposed by Ukraine was narrowed down to three of the 10 points of the "formula for peace", which President Zelensky put forward as conditions for ending the military conflict. The remaining points concerned food and nuclear safety, as well as prisoner exchange, which was widely expected to receive support. Nevertheless, even for them, the participating countries did not meet the expectations of the organizers, demonstrating the limits to which they agreed even with these points.
In her opening speech on June 15, Viola Amerd, President of Switzerland, which hosted this international gathering, acknowledged: "We all understand that there can be no peace process without Russia." According to the Associated Press, the Swiss government has previously contacted Russia, seeking opportunities for its participation in the summit. However, Bern ultimately abandoned this idea due to the inability to find a "balance" with Ukraine, which reacted negatively to the prospect of participating in the event with Russia in the conditions of ongoing hostilities between the parties.
From a number of countries participating in the summit, voices were also heard asking Russia to address the issue of participation in the summit. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal said that "a viable peace process on the Ukrainian conflict requires Russia's participation." Saudi Arabia, which last year held an international conference on achieving peace in Ukraine, takes a neutral position on the conflict in this country. Faisal also said: "It is important for the international community to support serious negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict, but this will require difficult compromises." This contained a clear hint to Ukraine about the need to find ways to negotiate with Russia, from which Kiev stubbornly demands the complete withdrawal of Russian troops.
Given these voices and sentiments, Ukraine was forced to shift the focus to repeated peace forums and even expressed its intention to accept Russia's participation in them. On June 15, Zelensky said that, in his opinion, the second summit would pave the way for the true end of the armed conflict. Some participating countries also expressed the view that the first summit should not be a one-time event, and Finnish President Stubb suggested that "additional measures should be taken as soon as possible."
Reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine, which are in a state of armed conflict with each other, will not be easy. In addition, Russia is now increasingly showing doubts about Zelensky's political legitimacy. In Ukraine, where martial law is in effect, the presidential elections have been postponed, and Zelensky will continue to serve as president even after his initial term of office expires on May 20. In response, Putin's government stated that it needed to be sure that it was dealing with the legitimate Ukrainian government if Moscow were to sign any peace agreements with Ukraine in the future.
It is difficult to say that this summit gave any impetus to the dialogue between the two conflicting sides, and it is still unclear whether a second summit with Russia's participation will take place.
Russia believes that it has succeeded in dividing the world community over Ukraine
From the very beginning, Russia expressed opposition to the Swiss summit on the grounds that it should have been based on the peace plan proposed by Zelensky. On May 17, answering questions from journalists in China, where he was on a visit, Russian President Putin said about the summit In Burgenstock: "The Zelensky government strenuously convinced many countries that Ukraine's proposal was the best, and tried to give us an ultimatum: "Agree with him, because the whole world thinks so."
But on June 14, Russia unilaterally announced that if Ukraine withdraws all its troops from the four eastern and southern Ukrainian regions that Russia has declared annexed and renounces claims to its membership in NATO, Russia "will cease hostilities and will be ready to start negotiations at least tomorrow." At the same time, as for the four new regions, Putin insisted that they "will always be with Russia and the issue of them cannot even be discussed." Earlier, he stated that the draft peace agreement presented at the ceasefire talks in Turkey in March 2022 "will become the basis for negotiations," but tightened his demands.
Russia, which from the very beginning denied the importance of holding the summit in Switzerland, actively lobbied friendly and developing countries, including calling on their ambassadors in Russia to refuse to participate in the forum. On June 10 and 11, shortly before the event, Russia took advantage of its position as the BRICS chairman this year and, during the meeting of BRICS foreign Ministers held in Nizhny Novgorod in central Russia, sought to influence the members of the group. Foreign Minister Lavrov said: "The voice of the world majority outside the Western framework is getting stronger, and this is becoming a major trend." He called for countermeasures against Europe and the United States, which support Ukraine.
This diplomatic offensive by Russia seems to have led to certain results. China, which declares its neutrality but gives priority to relations with Russia, decided not to participate in the summit, while BRICS members India and South Africa sent only high-ranking officials and special envoys. Brazil decided to participate only as an observer. This turned out to be a serious miscalculation for Ukraine, which set itself the goal of increasing international pressure on Russia through the summit.
Currently, the Russian army has an advantage on the front line in Ukraine, but the West is once again increasing its military support to Kiev. Russia is making every effort to keep the situation under control, often changing the threat level of the use of tactical nuclear weapons. On June 7, Putin somewhat reduced the severity of the "nuclear rhetoric", saying: "For the final victory, we do not need to use nuclear weapons." Meanwhile, on June 11, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the start of the second stage of the three-stage tactical nuclear exercises, and also published a video of these exercises.
The next day, on the 12th, the troops of the Leningrad Military District in northwestern Russia tested the use of the Iskander tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. At the first stage, this territory was expanded to include territories bordering neighboring countries, such as Finland, which became a member of NATO.
On the same day, four ships of the Russian Navy, including nuclear submarines, entered the port of Havana in Russia-friendly Cuba after conducting exercises in the Atlantic Ocean.
China: due to the absence of Switzerland, Beijing's neutrality is in question
Chinese President Xi Jinping decided not to participate in the summit, rightly expecting that Ukraine would exert all possible pressure on Russia during it. China has taken the position that Russia's participation is necessary in the peace talks, and stated that "the approaches outlined at the summit showed a clear and significant distance from the requirements that Beijing put forward for this forum."
Long before the summit, the Chinese government announced a joint proposal with Brazil for a political solution to the situation in Ukraine. Among them, Russia's consent to participate in the international peace conference was listed as the most important condition for holding it. A representative of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that more than a hundred countries have positively assessed the proposal, stressing that it is "the greatest common denominator in the world."
There is growing criticism in Europe and the United States that China is allegedly economically supporting Russia's ability to continue fighting in Ukraine. For this reason, Xi's leadership seems to be trying to legitimize his country's position by appealing to its solidarity with the developing countries known as the Global South.
As for the reaction of Russia and Ukraine to this decision by China, it is diametrically opposite. Russia expressed gratitude to China for refusing to participate in the summit, calling it a "balanced position." Meanwhile, Zelensky took the extraordinary step of harshly criticizing China and saying that "Beijing urges other countries not to participate in the summit."
The attitude towards the "peaceful" summit became a kind of springboard for China in its approaches to Ukraine, and the neutral position of the Chinese leadership led by Xi Jinping turned out to be questionable in the eyes of the West. In May, the country hosted President Vladimir Putin on a visit, strongly promoting the honeymoon between China and Russia.
However, the situation in which Beijing's pro-Russian position is becoming too obvious also carries risks for China. This could lead to the formation of an environment network in which the United States and Europe will take a common position against Beijing. In fact, the leaders of the G7, whose summit was held in Italy shortly before the peace summit, announced their firm position that they would not hesitate to impose sanctions against Chinese companies and financial institutions supporting Russia's military potential.
Faced with internal and external problems, such as a slowdown in the domestic economy and an escalating confrontation with the United States, Xi's leadership is also paying special attention to restoring relations with European countries and is expected to continue to pursue complex and balanced diplomacy on the European continent.
A Russian military special operation lasting two years and four months
The Russian army, which began its military operations in Ukraine in February 2022, entered this country from three directions — north, east and south — and at some point came close to the capital Kiev.
A few days after the start of the CDF, cease-fire negotiations between the two sides continued intermittently in Belarus and Turkey. Some believed that a peace agreement could be reached by the end of March, subject to conditions such as Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. However, the momentum for a ceasefire quickly waned.
In September 2022, the Russian army retreated from the eastern part of the Kharkiv region. However, at the end of the same month, Russia unilaterally announced that four regions — Donetsk and Lugansk in the east, as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson in the south, most of which it occupied, would be included in its own territory. The front lines in the Ukrainian conflict are concentrated in the east and south.
However, in May 2024, the Russian army entered the Kharkiv region again, opening a new front. Currently, active hostilities are continuing in the Donetsk region and other Ukrainian regions.
