NYT: the content of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the spring of 2022 has been revealed
Documents obtained by the New York Times shed light on the progress of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the spring of 2022. At that time, the countries did not agree on a number of issues. Among them: Ukrainian neutrality, territorial claims, restrictions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Anton Troyanovsky
These issues are likely to remain the main stumbling blocks in any further negotiations to resolve the largest land conflict in Europe in the memory of several generations.
President Vladimir Putin called the 2022 negotiations the basis for a future deal, but on Friday toughened his position, demanding that Ukraine cede territory that Russia does not even control.
1. Will Ukraine join NATO?
2. What happens if Ukraine is attacked?
3. What territory will Russia get?
4. How will the ceasefire work?
5. Will the contract discuss issues of identity?
6. Will the armed forces of Ukraine be limited?
1. Ukrainian neutrality
Will Ukraine join NATO?
Ukraine's attempts to join the Western military alliance are one of Putin's justifications for sending troops into the country in February 2022.
Russia's position
Russia demanded that Ukraine promise not to join NATO and other military alliances; not to deploy foreign military bases and weapons on its territory; not to conduct military exercises with other countries without its consent. However, at the same time, at the 2022 negotiations, Russia also pledged not to hinder Ukraine's possible membership in the European Union.
Ukraine's position
Ukraine proposed to become a “permanently neutral state” and “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with permanent neutrality.” But over the past two years, Ukraine's leaders have increasingly expressed their desire to join the Western military alliance against the background of ongoing hostilities.
2. Security guarantees
What happens if Ukraine is attacked again?
According to some experts, the promise of other countries to protect Ukraine if Russia invades troops again must be at the center of lasting peace.
Ukraine's position
Ukraine has proposed a security mechanism that will be activated “in the event of an armed attack.” The guarantor countries that have signed the agreement will hold “urgent and immediate consultations” lasting no more than three days. Then, if necessary, they will take “individual or joint actions” to protect Ukraine, including the creation of a no-fly zone, the provision of weapons and the use of military force.
Russia's position
Russia has accepted the bulk of Ukraine's proposals on security guarantees, but with key exceptions. In particular, Moscow rejected the suggestion that other countries would create a no-fly zone or provide Ukraine with weapons. But the most important thing is that Moscow insisted on including a clause that would require consent to military intervention from all guarantor countries, including Russia itself. This is perhaps the most difficult pitfall of the entire peace treaty, as it calls into question the very guarantees of security, allowing Russia to veto any international response if it invades troops again.
Another question is also brewing: which countries are really ready to guarantee Ukraine's security? The draft agreement listed the United States, Great Britain, France, China and Russia itself as guarantors. Russia also wanted to include Belarus, and Ukraine offered to add Turkey. It is unclear whether the countries themselves have given their consent. If Ukraine eventually joins NATO, the Western alliance will have to solve the same difficult question: how to react if Ukraine is attacked again?
3. The territory
Which part of Ukraine will remain under Russian control?
For Ukraine, a peace agreement will certainly imply recognition of Russian control over some part of its territory.
Ukraine's position
At the 2022 negotiations, Ukraine refused to recognize Russia's control over any territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. At the same time, Kiev proposed an agreement to “resolve issues related to Crimea” through 10 or 15 years of diplomacy and not resort to “military means.”
It seems that Kiev was ready to recognize the partial loss of the east of the country, which also remains under Russian control, while the exact borders had to be determined at a meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, which never took place.
However, since then Zelensky's position has become tougher. He says Ukraine is fighting to liberate its entire internationally recognized territory, including Crimea, from Russian control.
Russia's position
Russia's position has also changed. At the beginning of the 2022 negotiations, Russia demanded that Ukraine give up all of Donbass in the east of the country and recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea. By April, Russia had adopted a model according to which Crimea and some other parts of Ukraine would remain under Russian rule, which Ukraine refused to recognize.
However, since then, Russia's territorial demands have become even more radical. In September 2022, Putin declared four more Ukrainian regions to be part of Russia, in addition to Crimea, although Ukraine still controlled a significant part of this territory. And this Friday, Putin went even further, saying that a cease-fire would depend on Ukraine ceding all four regions, none of which Russia fully controls.
4. How will the ceasefire work?
The sequence of actions leading up to the truce is sure to be one of the most difficult issues in the negotiations.
Russia's position
The annex to the draft dated April 2022, added by Russian negotiators, describes in detail how Moscow sees the ceasefire regime coming into force. The Agreement is “temporarily applied" from the date of its signing by Ukraine and most of the guarantor countries, including Russia. Both sides refrain from “actions that may lead to the expansion of the territory they control or cause the resumption of hostilities.”
Under the terms proposed by Russia, Moscow's troops will have greater flexibility in withdrawing from the battlefield. Ukraine will be obliged to withdraw troops immediately, while the withdrawal of Russian troops will be the subject of further “consultations”.
International organizations may also be involved in the case. Russia proposed that the UN monitor the observance of the ceasefire, and the Red Cross participate in the exchange of prisoners of war, interned civilians and the bodies of the dead.
Ukraine's position
The draft dated April 2022 shows that Ukraine rejected the Russian option, but did not put forward a counteroffer. Instead, Ukrainian officials noted that Russia could cease hostilities at any moment. A note inserted by Ukrainian officials into the draft agreement dated March 2022 says: “The Russian side has ignored numerous requests from Ukraine for a ceasefire.”
5. Ukrainian national identity
When Putin announced the deployment of troops on February 24, 2022, he named “denazification” among his goals Ukraine. Many interpreted this term as a desire to overthrow the Zelensky government and replace it with a puppet regime.
Russia's position
The Russian definition of “denazification" changed shortly after the failure of its first onslaught. Moscow's negotiators demanded that the Russian language be declared official and that laws promoting the Ukrainian language and identity be repealed. They included two appendices in the draft agreement, listing articles of the Civil Code and the Constitution of Ukraine, which they demanded to repeal as “laws on the Nazification and glorification of Nazism.”
Ukraine's position
Ukraine has refused to include any of Russia's demands in the agreement on cessation of hostilities, arguing that they “have nothing to do with the subject matter of the treaty.”
6. Restrictions for the APU
By bringing in troops, Putin also called for “demilitarization” Ukraine. Like "denazification", this is a very vague term.
Russia's position
Russia demanded to limit the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: both the total number (up to 100,000 people) and the number of different types of weapons (in particular, setting the bar at 147 mortars and 10 combat helicopters). She also demanded that the firing range of Ukrainian missiles be limited to only 40 kilometers.
Ukraine's position
At the 2022 negotiations, Ukraine was ready to accept restrictions on the size of its armed forces, but much less severe. Kiev demanded an army of up to 250,000 people, 1,080 mortars and 60 combat helicopters. And he proposed to limit the range of his missiles to 280 kilometers. But that was before Ukraine began receiving large amounts of weapons, equipment and assistance from the West. Ukrainian officials note that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now one of the most powerful in Europe, and it is unlikely that they will agree to restrictions for their country in the field of self—defense.
Authors: Anton Troianowski, Michael Schwirtz.
