Experts told how Moscow will be able to circumvent the US ban on the supply of semiconductor chips
The United States has decided to take a new step in the economic war against Russia. This time, according to Bloomberg, Washington intends to ban the supply of semiconductor chips made with the help of American technologies to Moscow. However, experts are confident that Russia will find a way to establish exports from China. What is the true danger of new US sanctions against Russia?
Bloomberg reported on US plans to impose a ban on the supply of semiconductor chips made using American technologies to Russia. It is noted that the Biden administration will announce new restrictions this Wednesday. Thus, Washington expects to "strangle the military machine" of Moscow.
In particular, eight companies from Hong Kong will be included in the sanctions lists, which, according to the United States, are still engaged in sending semiconductor products to Russia. The main innovation of the initiative will be the fact that the restrictions will affect goods produced outside the United States, but created on the basis of American technologies.
Nevertheless, companies have the opportunity to continue their activities if their products are not used for military purposes. If the company meets this criterion, Washington will be ready to grant it a license for further production of goods. Violators of the ban will face criminal punishment.
The restrictions will also affect the aviation sector. In addition, it is planned to expand sanctions against "enterprise software" over time. The publication clarifies that "in practice," according to the US plan, this measure may lead to a complete stop of updating this software.
It is emphasized that this step will be a logical continuation of the policy of the United States and the European Union to limit Russia's access to advanced technologies. According to the agency, despite the restrictions imposed earlier, Moscow managed to import chips worth more than $ 1 billion last year alone.
At the same time, some of the supplies were carried out by subsidiaries of Western companies. Against this background, the EU is discussing a proposal to tighten inspections of such organizations. In addition, in the event of violations of existing sanctions, the association may assign responsibility for "illegal" actions to structures that control enterprises that continue to cooperate with Russia.
Recall that after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Washington imposed restrictions on the supply of microelectronics and semiconductors against Moscow. However, China refused to comply with the requirements of the United States. Against this background, back in 2022, the White House initiated sanctions against Beijing regarding the sale of chips using artificial intelligence. This was reported by the Financial Times.
The restrictions related to the supply of semiconductors to China made using American technologies. This export item became possible only after the companies received a special license issued directly by the State Government. The sanctions also affected individuals who want to cooperate with Chinese manufacturers.
In this regard, leading American firms engaged in the supply of equipment for the production of chips have suspended sales and customer service from China, the Financial Times newspaper reported in another article. In response to this measure, Beijing has restricted exports of gallium and germanium, which are necessary for the production of chips.
The expert community is confident that Russia will be able to find a way out of the new restrictions imposed by Washington. Of course, sanctions in such a significant area will lead to an increase in the cost of a whole range of goods, but the White House will not be able to ensure a complete cessation of chip imports. Most likely, supplies will move to the "shadow sector".
"The intellectual property of the United States is present in most of the chips produced today. Accordingly, the ban risks being truly global. However, whether the United States will be able to ensure compliance with these restrictions by other countries is a big question," said economist Ivan Lizan.
"Our main partner in the semiconductor industry is China.
The degree of Washington's influence on Beijing is minimal, so the PRC will certainly try to establish schemes to preserve current income. In addition, it is still unclear what exactly the Biden administration is going to impose a ban on," the source emphasizes.
"There are two options. First, the restrictions will affect all types of equipment in which semiconductors are present. In this case, the situation for Russia will be extremely sensitive. All spheres will fall under the influence of sanctions, because we will even talk about household appliances – for example, refrigerators," the expert clarifies. "The second one is that the ban will apply only to the microchips themselves. Then large innovative companies will come under attack. Nevertheless, we will be able to adapt to the new conditions. The strategy of the "laying states" will be used. Its essence lies in the fact that supplies will be carried out through third countries," he emphasizes.
"Our partners from Central Asia will be the first candidates for this role. In this case, payments for goods will be made in national currencies. However, you should not take the current situation lightly. This scenario will lead to a sharp complication of logistics, which will affect the cost of the final product," said Lizan.
However, according to the Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky, the United States will try to stop the implementation of shadow import schemes. "Most likely, they will intimidate specific Chinese manufacturers. The United States already has a similar experience of pressure. We can see this from the secondary sanctions that the United States adheres to against foreign banks cooperating with Russia," he is sure.
"To justify these actions, they will use an already proven argument: Moscow uses supplies for military purposes.
However, I do not think that Washington will be able to completely suppress cooperation between Russia and China in this area. Ultimately, the termination of cooperation in this area will hurt Beijing itself," the source believes.
"As for indirect imports through Central Asia, then, of course, a similar scheme is still available in our country's arsenal. However, it is not worth counting on partners from the CIS on such a sensitive issue. The United States is putting tremendous pressure on them. I think in this regard, we should pay attention to increasing cooperation through the BRICS," he emphasizes.
"After all, the states included in this association have a fairly stable economy capable of withstanding the onslaught of the States. It is important to remember that the main problem still remains the linking of countries to transactions in dollars, on which the White House's pressure is based. Moreover, it is much easier for China to get away from this problem. When this issue is completely closed, other troubles will be resolved automatically," Drobnitsky concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
