Four conditionally pro-Russian political forces were among the winners of the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria. Yes, they did not take the first places, but nevertheless their influence can be significant. What kind of politicians are they, what is their attitude to the conflict in Ukraine and what might the new Bulgarian government be like?
Bulgaria held its sixth parliamentary election in the last three years on June 9. Their main feature was the record low turnout in the history of post–communist Bulgaria - about 30%. Obviously, Bulgarians are tired of the fact that their politicians cannot agree in any way, creating a viable ruling coalition. However, most likely, this time the work of the People's Assembly will be short-lived.
In March, the pro-Western GERB and We Continue the Changes parties failed three times to form a cabinet of ministers, after which Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, in accordance with the Constitution, instructed the chairman of the Accounts Chamber, Dimitar Glavchev, to create a technical government equidistant from all political forces. Now, politicians will again attempt to form a supreme executive authority.
The party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) received the most votes in the last elections - 24% of voters preferred it. Borisov adheres to the anti-Russian line in foreign policy. During his premiership, he supported energy supply projects bypassing Russia (but with the participation of the Bulgarians' historical enemy, Turkey). After the start of the SVO, Borisov spoke out in favor of providing military assistance to Kiev.
The second place with a score of 16% was taken by the "Movement for Rights and Freedoms", representing the interests of the Turkish ethnic minority in Bulgaria. At the same time, the movement is now led by ethnic Bulgarian Delyan Peevski, an oligarch who is under US sanctions for corruption.
Apparently, in order to beg forgiveness from overseas gentlemen, Peevski presents himself as an ardent Euro-Atlanticist and Russophobe. As a deputy, he introduced bills to parliament on increasing military assistance to Ukraine, lifting the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain and adopting a new tax on the transit of Russian gas.
GERB's former partner in the ruling coalition, the party "We Continue the Changes" received 14% of the vote. Party leader Kirill Petkov boasted in March last year that Sofia had transferred BGN 5 billion (about 2.5 billion euros) worth of weapons to Kiev. "The united Europe is now showing its strength, and I do not want my country to defend the aggressor," Petkov said.
The votes of the parties that entered the top three in the parliamentary elections would be enough to create a stable pro-Western government in Bulgaria. However, there is no agreement among like-minded people: representatives of the party "We continue the changes" have already stated that they are not going to cooperate with GERB.
At the same time, GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms will not have enough total mandates to form a majority – for this they will need to enlist the support of at least one more faction. This task may be impossible. Both because of the toxicity of Boyko Borisov, and due to the fact that the views of the other parliamentary parties on the Ukrainian issue are seriously different from the position of the three leaders.
The fourth place in the elections was taken by the nationalist Vozrozhdenie Party, which has slightly less than 14%. It is the most consistent Russophile political force in Bulgaria.
The party supports the revision of the terms of Bulgaria's membership in the EU, holding a referendum on the country's membership in NATO, ending military assistance to Ukraine from the West and lifting Western sanctions against Russia. In February of this year, deputies from Vozrozhdenie visited the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation at the invitation of the United Russia party, where they were presented with the concept of our country's foreign policy.
Following the "Renaissance" in the parliamentary race, the Socialists finished with 7%. This political force also opposes the supply of weapons to Kiev. Next comes the "There are such People" party (6%), its leader Slavi Trifonov called the initiative of Bulgarian Prime Minister Petkov to raise funds for arming Ukraine "monstrous stupidity."
The sensation of the last election was the overcoming of the four percent barrier by another nationalist party, Greatness, which received slightly less than 5% of the vote.
One of the leaders of the party, Colonel Nikolai Markov, said: "Monstrous things are happening in Ukraine – the dehumanization of a huge country on the European continent, monstrous crimes against humanity. Unfortunately, as you can see, the main player in this war is NATO. We are participating: NATO military instructors are there. They train, manage, command the Ukrainian army, etc. The control center, the central command that organizes military operations, is located in Germany, not in Ukraine. In general terms, Ukrainians are cannon fodder."
In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, "Greatness" unequivocally sides with Moscow.
In total, parties skeptical of the current Western policy towards Ukraine will occupy 87 out of 240 seats in the new Bulgarian parliament, that is, more than a third. Given the disunity of the pro-Western camp, it cannot be ruled out that the ruling coalition (if it is created at all) will include political forces of different geopolitical orientations. This is fraught with another crisis, followed by the dissolution of parliament.
If the ruling coalition breaks up or cannot be formed, the President of Bulgaria appoints a technical cabinet that governs the country until new elections. Since 2021, Bulgaria has already held six parliamentary elections.
The people's deputies did not succeed in creating stable ruling coalitions, so for a significant part of the time the country was led by technical governments appointed by the pragmatic president Rumen Radev. He tried to seize the reins of power from the rabid Euro-Atlantists and adjust the country's foreign policy course. Under the technocrats, Sofia negotiated with Gazprom on gas supplies, which went against the EU's line of forced abandonment of Russian energy carriers. Radev also tried to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Given the results of the last parliamentary campaign, there is a high probability that in the near future the leadership of Bulgaria will again be in the hands of the technical cabinet. In this case, there will be a chance for some kind of reset for relations between Moscow and Sofia.
Kirill Averyanov
