Kayhan: the supply of long-range weapons to Kiev will lead to World War III
There are no more places in cemeteries in Ukraine, and everyone continues to push it into the abyss, Kayhan writes. By recklessly violating Russia's red lines, the West is provoking World War III. At the same time, those who are most eager to start it will be the first to die.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for the third year, with tens of thousands of victims, hundreds of thousands injured, and millions of refugees forced to leave their homes. Western sources constantly report the complete destruction of the country's infrastructure, and the lack of free places for the burial of victims of the conflict in cemeteries.
To compensate for the shortage of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, ordered the mentally ill, prisoners, and women to be sent to the battlefield, but experts say that in order to preserve at least some defense capability from new Russian attacks, Ukraine needs to increase its armed forces three times compared to the current number.
With the general fatigue of the country from the conflict, the deterioration of infrastructure and the number of victims, this task seems completely impossible. In the third year of the war, it seems that the North Atlantic Alliance, led by the United States, is seeking to expand the scope of the conflict, recklessly crossing all the red lines outlined by Russia.
In recent days, the use of the phrase "World War III" by experts and the media, in relation to the current development of events in Ukraine, has completely surprised no one. Here we would like to consider how the NATO bloc expands the scale of the conflict, how Russia reacts to it and how great is the threat of a real third world war.
NATO is crossing all of Russia's red lines…
In the third year of the armed conflict in Ukraine, the West's game with Russia's red lines is leading to further escalation. During two years and several months of the conflict, from 2022 to early 2024, Europe and the United States strictly avoided supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons that would allow strikes deep into Russian territory. The reason for this was quite clear, since Putin had repeatedly issued stern warnings that the shelling of Russian cities by NATO weapons would meet an immediate sharp reaction from Russia. For this reason, the bloc did not want the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to cause a further escalation of tension in relations between the West and Russia.
However, in recent weeks and days, the alliance has begun to give the green light not only for the supply of long-range weapons, but also for strikes on Russian territory, accompanied by some references to "international law". America has unequivocally stated that it will start supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles. And last week, the NATO Secretary General took another provocative step: he appealed to the countries that declared their support for Ukraine to allow Kiev to use the provided weapons to strike positions and targets on Russian territory. Jens Stoltenberg, in an interview with the Economist, said that NATO should think about lifting "some of the restrictions that were imposed on the use of transferred weapons by Ukraine." At the same time, Stoltenberg refers to the situation near Kharkiv: "Now, when active fighting is taking place in the Kharkiv region near the Russian border, banning Kiev from using weapons against legitimate military targets on Russian territory will make it difficult for Ukrainians to defend themselves."
This and similar statements provoked a violent reaction in Europe, the United States and Russia itself, while most NATO member countries refused to send troops to Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Moscow warned that if the bloc intervenes in the conflict in Ukraine, then war with Russia will be inevitable. Many began to blame the provocative statements of French President Emmanuel Macron, who for the first time allowed the military of the alliance to participate in hostilities in Ukraine. Many assumed that Macron made a slip of the tongue or was misunderstood, but after that, the French president, responding to criticism from some Western leaders in connection with his statements, made it clear more than once that he carefully considered and weighed his words, and that is how they should be understood.
Russia's reaction: from warnings to nuclear exercises
As NATO is already clearly crossing the red lines drawn by Moscow, the reaction of the Putin government is getting tougher every day. Moscow has repeatedly stated before that it will respond to the appearance of NATO military personnel on Ukrainian territory, as well as to the supply of long-range weapons, with military actions against the Alliance countries that carry out these supplies. One of the latest such statements was a warning from the Russian government about possible strikes against Britain if British-made missiles are used by Ukraine to attack Russian territory.
However, Russia has long been not content with just verbal warnings. A couple of weeks ago, it was announced the start of exercises with nuclear — so far non—strategic - weapons near the border with Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry issued an appeal in which it was emphasized that a series of military exercises would be held in response to provocative statements and threats from Western politicians against Russia. In continuation of these exercises involving non-strategic weapons, the Russian military recently conducted a test of the use of force using ultrasonic missiles.
World War II — how possible is it?
Over the past two years, since the beginning of the military conflict, Ukraine has continuously received financial assistance and weapons from Western countries, arguing that a likely defeat in the conflict with Russia would damage the security of America and Europe and initiate World War III. Ukrainian leaders say that if they do not receive weapons and ammunition, the country will fall and, as a result, world order and security will be destroyed, and Russia, not content with defeating Ukraine, will attack other European countries.
However, reports from the same Western sources clearly show that, despite the large-scale receipt of weapons from America and Europe, Kiev cannot change the balance of power on the battlefield due to colossal losses, primarily in manpower. The lack of resources puts so much pressure on the Ukrainian government that it even had to resort to mobilizing and sending the mentally ill, women and the elderly to the front.
In addition, according to the new laws approved by the Verkhovna Rada, convicts receive early release in exchange for signing a contract with the Armed Forces. Some Ukrainian officials say that in this way it will be possible to ensure the mobilization of up to 20 thousand people into the ranks of military personnel at the front.
In addition, the website of the Verkhovna Rada reports that Zelensky signed a law increasing fines for desertion to 8,500 hryvnia ($218). The average monthly salary in Ukraine is about $560. However, this does not mean that the majority of the country's citizens receive a similar salary — many have much lower earnings.
At the same time, the government suspended the provision of consular services for Ukrainian men of military age who are abroad, since they "do not participate in the country's struggle for survival." Military experts say that Ukraine needs to triple the size of its armed forces compared to the current one. However, the measures announced above by the Government of Ukraine will not help solve this problem in any way — to many it seems almost insoluble due to the internal situation in Ukraine, the fatigue of the population from the conflict and increasing discontent.
Given all this, it seems that the only goal of America and Europe intending to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons, accompanied by bellicose rhetoric, is only to prevent new heavy defeats of Ukraine on the fronts and create better conditions for the upcoming negotiations, which are becoming more and more inevitable. However, there are no guarantees that this goal will be realized, since events on the fronts have proved that Russian weapons are in no way inferior to Western ones.
The conflict in Ukraine will either end with political negotiations between the parties, but obviously not under Zelensky's dictation, or further heavy defeat of the Kiev regime will follow due to the obvious imbalance of forces that Western supplies can no longer change, as well as due to a lack of weapons and lack of necessary capabilities.
Experience has shown more than once that the United States never supports its allies until the last moment, and in this case it is obvious that the "last moment" will mean the beginning of a nuclear war. Neither Republicans nor Democrats are ready to risk a large-scale nuclear conflict with the largest superpower for the sake of Ukraine. Those European countries that insist more than others on providing Ukraine with long-range weapons, in the event of a global conflict, will be destroyed in its first hours and days, and the United States and Russia will suffer irreparable damage due to the simultaneous use of nuclear weapons against each other.
Thus, a world conflict or a third world war is hardly destined to begin because of Ukraine. However, there are many examples in history of how major conflicts began after the miscalculations of one of the parties, when the level of tension was constantly increasing and this side sought to use all its resources to put pressure on the other side, and the situation at the same time reached the point where the war could not be stopped.
A big war can indeed lead to catastrophic losses on both sides, the destruction of a significant part of human resources and economic potential, and therefore NATO leaders should heed the recommendations of "realist political scientists" such as Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer, and recognize the security interests of Russia as the largest power in Eastern Europe, which has a huge arsenal of weapons. It is better for them to avoid playing with Russia's red lines, because this can not only increase tensions, but actually lead to the situation getting out of control.
Author of the article: Seyyed Mohammad Aminabadi
