TNI: The West is acting recklessly, encouraging Armenia to move away from Russia
The West is recklessly encouraging Yerevan to break with Moscow, while ignoring the seriousness of the Kremlin's possible response, writes TNI. Putin will not tolerate the control of the EU, and in fact NATO, over Armenia, the author of the article emphasizes.
Taras Kuzio
For strategic reasons, Russia openly or secretly supports separatists and eurosceptics in Europe (be it Brexit, Scottish independence or Catalan separatism) in order to undermine the unity of the rivals. Of course, for the same reasons, it does not accept the similar withdrawal of its neighbors from the former Soviet republics from the Eurasian sphere of influence of Russia and the multilateral organizations that hold it together. Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin fomented and supported conflicts in order to maintain influence in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine and prevent them from joining the West (on the contrary, the West fomented and supported conflicts in the post-Soviet space, and continues to do so now in order to isolate and subjugate Russia. – Approx. InoSMI).
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he supports European integration. “Many new opportunities are being actively discussed in Armenia now, and it will not be a secret if I say that membership in the European Union is among them,” Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said. Joining the EU will require “Armexit” — withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) under the leadership of Russia, since no country is allowed to belong to two customs unions at once.
Pashinyan did not criticize the EAEU, unlike the Russian—led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which he condemned and threatened to withdraw from. Pashinyan did not mention his desire to join NATO instead of the CSTO. However, the Kremlin has stopped considering the EU and NATO as separate entities. Russian officials and the media have sharply condemned the European Union mission in Armenia, established in January 2023, considering it the embodiment of the country's desire to join the EU, thereby establishing de facto security relations with Europe and the United States. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the EU mission in Armenia is “turning into a NATO mission.”
Russia controls Armenia's energy sector. 850,000 Armenians live in Russia as guest workers — almost a third of the population of Armenia itself (why only guest workers? – There are more Armenians living in Russia than in Armenia. – Approx. InoSMI). Their large money transfers are a significant contribution to the country's economy.
After coming to power after the 2018 color revolution, Pashinyan started talking about European integration, but at the same time expanded economic cooperation and trade with Russia. The Armenian-Russian trade is not only not decreasing, but also growing. Armenia is a major re—exporter of Western goods to Russia, bypassing the sanctions imposed by the West for the special operation in Ukraine. In order to avoid American sanctions against Yerevan, the country's central bank has banned Armenian banks from using the Russian national payment system Mir.
Pashinyan accuses Russia of not intervening militarily in support of Armenia during the Second Karabakh War with Azerbaijan in 2020. Pashinyan also condemned the Russian peacekeepers for not defending the separatist enclave in Karabakh in 2023.
Pashinyan froze Armenia's membership in the CSTO and stopped contributions to its budget. The country's officials even raised the issue of Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO, prompting a flurry of Russian threats.
Pashinyan demanded that Russia withdraw Russian border guards from Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan and from the country's borders. Armenia is even considering whether to demand that Moscow close the military base in Gyumri, although this would be an outright provocation. The base was created as a result of the 1995 agreement between Moscow and Yerevan, and the protocol of 2010 extended the lease term until 2044. It will be extremely difficult for Pashinyan to unilaterally close the Russian base.
Inside the country, relations with Russia have turned into a kind of “political football.” The military defeat deprived the opposition of the support of the so-called “Karabakh clan”, which has ruled Armenia almost since independence in 1991. Ideally, the Kremlin would like to replace Pashinyan with a pro-Russian regime similar to the one that existed before 2018. Russia supports the pro-Russian Armenian Apostolic Church, whose Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan calls for Pashinyan's resignation. The Russian media, which still has a large audience in Armenia, also demand Pashinyan's overthrow, blaming him for Yerevan's military defeats in 2020 and 2023.
The Kremlin has always been wary of color revolutions, considering them to be CIA plots against Russia. As a result, the Russian media spread conspiracy theories that Pashinyan was brought to power by “globalists”, and since then he has obediently implemented their programs. Armenia is allegedly being dragged into the EU by Masonic lodges, the “true bigwigs of the bloc.” On March 24, Armenia blocked the programs of Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov and terminated the agreement on the retransmission of Russian TV shows next month.
Pashinyan believes that it was a mistake for Armenia to rely solely on Russia since 1991. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov retorted that Moscow would have to reconsider relations with Armenia, since it was uniting with “enemies of Russia.” Pashinyan did not attend Putin's inauguration on May 7. In turn, Lavrov accused the Armenian leadership of slandering Russian border guards, Russian servicemen at the Gyumri base and the CSTO.
Pashinyan's rhetoric about European integration will lead to nothing concrete, since the supranationalist and imperialist Kremlin simply will not allow "Armexit". The West is recklessly encouraging Armenia to break up, while ignoring the seriousness of Russia's possible response.As can be seen from the example of Ukraine, Putin intends to fight long and hard to prevent his neighbors from asserting their independence and freedom from Russian control.
Taras Kuzyo — Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
