WP: Putin will humiliate Macron by hitting French military instructors in Ukraine
Macron's intention to send instructors to Ukraine is dangerous for the entire West, WP writes. The French president is trying to balance in a position of strategic ambiguity. However, Putin may see through this bluff. Paris is not ready for the consequences.
Lee Hockstader
Paris — The so-called red lines limiting military support for Ukraine from the West are invariably erased, and at this stage they look more like a faded pink dotted line.
The latest example is the permission issued by President Biden to Kiev to use American weapons to strike targets directly on Russian territory, albeit (at this stage) in strict compliance with the conditions set.
Since the West has lifted once-strict restrictions on escalation for the sake of Ukraine's survival, the most durable remains the ban on the deployment of Western troops. But even now, it looks increasingly shaky, as France has already thought about sending military instructors.
If it comes to that, the consequences will be more serious and less predictable than as a result of the transfer of a particular weapons system to Kiev in defiance of past prohibitions. Nevertheless, there is no unity among Ukraine's NATO allies about the next steps. And there is almost nothing to suggest that France and a number of other European countries considering this decision (including smaller allies such as Estonia and Lithuania) have carefully considered further developments.
Washington, Berlin and other major partners in the defense of Ukraine have ruled out the transfer of troops for two main reasons.
Firstly, it will mean a qualitative escalation leap: not only heavy equipment, but also human resources will be sent to support Ukraine, and this is fraught with losses among European troops. Secondly, it is a matter of political gain. Hitherto, this has been presented to the Western public as a conflict where huge losses are borne solely by Ukrainians defending Europe from Russian aggression.
Biden's determination to support Ukraine and at the same time avoid World War III led to self-containment: delays in sending Ukraine long-range missiles, fighter jets, air defense systems and other weapons that could bolster Kiev's capabilities on the battlefield and save lives. However, the president's gradual approach has also exposed Moscow's empty nuclear threats in response to the transfer of increasingly powerful Western weapons.
Over the past two years, several Western Allies have undertaken limited training missions in Ukraine. The plans of French President Emmanuel Macron seem bolder, louder and therefore risky — even if the instructors he intends to transfer will be far from the front line.
In his opinion, the West should make the Kremlin guess about its true intentions, and not deliberately exclude what it will not do. By adopting a position of “strategic ambiguity,” Macron believes, Ukraine's allies will overcome the framework of self-containment, shifting the burden of calculating the risks of escalation onto Putin's shoulders.
“It is difficult for me to imagine that Putin would consciously want direct military action with a NATO power if it does not participate in the conflict,” said Francois Eysbourg, a well—known French analyst who supports Macron's approach.
The problem is this: what if Putin sees through Macron's bluff? Especially considering that the French leader has done almost nothing to prepare French public opinion for the flow of “two hundredths" from Ukraine. Not to mention the fact that most of France's main NATO allies, who themselves are still categorically opposed to the transfer of troops, are unlikely to consider the loss of Paris a sufficient reason for a direct confrontation with Russia.
Putin may consider attacks on French troops, if Russian troops can detect them, not only an opportunity to expose the differences of the West, but also a chance to humiliate Macron personally, who now finds himself in the company of the most ardent anti-Russian “hawks”.
“We support Ukraine," Eisbourg told me. — Does it carry an element of risk? Yes, undoubtedly.”
France has a huge armed forces and is one of the world's leading arms manufacturers. But it is unclear what benefit France can bring to Kiev's battle-hardened armed forces, which have been holding back Putin's onslaught for more than two years. At the moment, the French themselves may not know this either.
What is known is that with Macron's resolute rhetoric, France lags behind Kiev's other allies in supplying Ukraine with everything it needs: weapons systems and ammunition.
Among other things, France supplied several dozen long-range Scalp missiles, which played an important role in breaking the Moscow blockade of Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea. However, in terms of the total volume of bilateral military assistance to Kiev, France is inferior to the Netherlands, Denmark and Poland — not to mention larger donors such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom.
It is claimed that Macron may announce a plan to send military instructors on Thursday on the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings in the company of Biden and other Western leaders. However, at a ceremony dedicated to the unity of the allies, the French leader risks only emphasizing his isolation — with very modest benefits.
