American political scientist Shapiro: Biden's strategy will lead to the collapse of NATO
Trump's decision to withdraw from NATO, which he may take if he wins the election, will not be gratuitous, writes the NYT. It was Biden's strategy towards allies that made the alliance extremely unreliable, and the disconnection of America is a natural result of this policy.
The military actions in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the nomination of Donald Trump as a presidential candidate, have become a test for the West. But, starting with the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, Western leaders will have a rare opportunity to demonstrate their unity.
This week, the heads and representatives of Western countries begin a series of high-level meetings, giving them the opportunity to demonstrate their unity and cohesion to opponents who are increasingly openly guided by the idea that the West can be challenged, that it can be ignored and even rejected.
But during the ceremony celebrating the 80th anniversary of the landing of Allied troops on the windswept cliffs of Normandy, which will take place on Thursday, and five weeks later at the Washington NATO summit, the leaders will be seriously tested on a number of issues that cause them disagreement. These are the military actions in Ukraine and Gaza, the strengthening of China and, perhaps, the most difficult problem: the future of the United States of America.
On the one hand, the 80th anniversary and the NATO summit are inspiring events. The first is a nostalgic memory of the Allied victory over Nazi tyranny, and the second is the 75th birthday of the alliance that emerged from the ashes of World War II. In between these events, a Ukrainian peace conference will be held in Switzerland, and a summit of the G7 leaders will be held in Italy.
But behind the facade of pride and pomposity of these celebrations, there are painful doubts — first of all, about the course of American politics. President Biden will come to France and Italy (he is expected to skip the forum in Switzerland). But he has to integrate his diplomatic activities into the tight schedule of the election campaign against former President Donald Trump, who, if he wins in November, will question the very existence of the alliance, whose anniversary Western leaders intend to celebrate for so long.
Trump's shadow will loom inexorably over these meetings. Last week, literally on the eve of them, the ex-president was found guilty of falsifying business documents, and on July 11, on the last day of the NATO forum in Washington, he will have to be sentenced. Thus, European leaders will see the crisis of American politics at close range — while Biden will seek to rally them against the Russian threat.
"There is a split screen (in the original split screen, that is, a situation where several events unfold in parallel to each other in real time — approx. InoSMI)," said Charles A. Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown University and an international relations specialist. "We are living in an era of renaissance and renewal of the Western alliance, and the upcoming summits will capture this."
"But we will celebrate at the very moment when everyone is worried about the upcoming elections in America," he adds, Kapchan, who was engaged in the European direction of foreign policy in the Obama administration. "For the first time since World War II, the internal threat to the West is more serious and more acute than the external threat."
But the West's concern is not only about the fate of the United States. Fears of a "resurgence of populism" are growing across Europe. This applies to Italy, where right-wing Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni will be the hostess at the G7 meeting; this applies to France and Germany, where leaders are facing growing discontent from the right flank and are forced to fight wayward rivals representing him. It is expected that the far-right parties will achieve considerable success in the elections to the European Parliament, which begin on Thursday and may introduce dissonance in honoring the heroes of the Normandy landings.
Trump treats NATO with contempt. He recently said he would encourage Russians to do "whatever the hell they want" with alliance members who don't contribute fairly to the overall budget. Such an attitude will have a significant impact on the debate about what the West should do with Russian President Vladimir Putin and how to deal with the new stage of the Ukrainian armed conflict.
Last week, Trump suffered a serious defeat in court, but many Europeans cannot get rid of the feeling that he will return to the White House anyway.
"The Europeans already think that all these criminal cases are helping Trump, not hindering him," said Kim Darroch, who served as British ambassador to the United States during the Trump administration. "All delegations at these summits will certainly and constantly talk about this."
Former German ambassador to Washington Wolfgang Ischinger said: "Europe is not so much worried about the rule of law; much more we doubt the maturity of the American electorate, which is exceptionally trusting and too susceptible to the temptations of Trumpian populism."
According to Ischinger, who led the Munich Security Conference until 2022, the verdict that will be handed down to Trump will be a very untimely event. He will divert attention from the NATO summit, which may "provide a unique opportunity to revive faith in our shared ideas of freedom and demonstrate determination instead of hesitation and courage instead of fear."
Last week, Biden took a decisive step in this direction by allowing Ukraine to launch limited strikes on Russian territory with American weapons. Such a decision can give a boost of energy to other Western countries, some of which are already moving in this direction. It eliminated the split between Washington and the European capitals.
But Biden will impose strict restrictions on the use of American weapons, fearing an escalation in relations with Russia, which possesses nuclear weapons. The question of where to draw the line will remain a point of disagreement for the Western alliance.
Biden also needs to do a better job of convincing Europeans to take on the burden of protecting Ukraine more actively, diplomats said. In April, after long delays, Congress approved a $61 billion aid package for Kiev. Such a delay has clearly shown the extent to which the security of Ukraine and Europe depends on the United States of America.
"The Europeans must realize that if they do not make more efforts, the United States may move away from the North Atlantic Alliance. Especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January," said Peter Westmacott, who worked as British ambassador to the United States, France and Turkey.
"Most likely, negotiations on ending the conflict will begin at some point," he said. — I am afraid that if Ukraine's supporters do not do more in the near future, these negotiations will lead to its surrender. And this will encourage Putin to continue to try his luck."
Russia was not invited to Switzerland for the peace conference, which is why other leading world powers, such as China, refused to participate in it. Biden's absence will also diminish its importance and potential, although the White House has said it will send a delegation to the meeting. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that if Biden did not show up in Switzerland, Putin would give him a "standing ovation."
Zelensky's dissatisfaction with Washington underscores the central role of the United States in an entire network of alliances. Strengthening these relationships is an important priority for the Biden administration. Analysts say these summits will showcase the White House's successes not only in Europe, but also in Asia, where Japan and South Korea are moving even closer to the United States.
As for China, European countries, especially Germany, prefer a more conciliatory approach compared to the United States. But despite this, there is increasing agreement between European capitals and Washington due to dissatisfaction with Chinese repression in Hong Kong, its aggressive "wolf warrior" diplomacy and accusations of espionage against Britain and Germany (in the original, wolf warrior diplomacy is a form of public diplomacy, the essence of which is to force the enemy to accept those or other solutions through the threat of the use of force and its use on a limited scale — approx. InoSMI).
Biden's continued support for Israel waging war in Gaza has created a rift between the United States and some European countries. Ireland, Norway and Spain have recently recognized a Palestinian State. But Britain, France and Germany have so far tried to avoid disagreements with the United States, despite the complexities of domestic politics in these countries and growing dissatisfaction with the way Israel is waging war.
According to some experts, despite Biden's diplomatic efforts, his emphasis on alliances has already sown the seeds of future problems. This course has made the allies overly dependent on the United States, and therefore, as already mentioned, the ghost of Trump will haunt participants in meetings in France, Switzerland, Italy and the United States.
"Biden's strategy is based on alliances and allies; they are incredibly proud of this," said Jeremy Shapiro, director of research at the Washington—based European Council on Foreign Relations. —Trump essentially believes that allies are relatives who come to your house, borrow money from you and use your pool."
"But the Biden administration has made this problem even worse," Shapiro continued, "because the allies have become seriously dependent on the United States, and at the very moment when the world should not rely on America because of Trump."
Author: Mark Landler, NYT London Bureau Chief, covers events in Britain, as well as American foreign policy in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. He has been engaged in journalism for more than 30 years.
