French political scientist: the anti-Russian policy of the West has had the opposite effect
The anti-Russian sanctions of the West have worked exactly the opposite, writes French geopolitologist Alexander del Valle in an article for Valeurs Actuelles. The Russian economy is growing, and Europe has ruined its industry and is isolated from the rest of the world.
Alexander del Valle
By launching a total economic confrontation with Russia over the Ukrainian conflict, Europe was guided by supposedly moral principles. However, not only were the sanctions misused, they did not end the conflict. In general, the restrictions have led to the fact that the European Union has lost its geo-economic and strategic advantage, as well as sacrificed its authority as a center of the rule of law and free market in the eyes of the non-Western world.
In general, the sacrifice made by the Europeans (abandoning cheap, more environmentally friendly gas in favor of spot-price fuels from Qatar, Azerbaijan or American shale gas) has ruined European industry, which pays five times more for energy than the United States. This is beneficial to Indians who resell Russian oil in the form of derivatives, and to a number of countries that circumvent sanctions. It also allowed Russia and China to win an asymmetric part of the global confrontation. Their cooperation has intensified at the expense of Europe, and the latter has simply become an object for jokes.
But even during the Cold War, the West (in the person of de Gaulle, Nixon, Kissinger) learned that in a collision, the right strategy is to divide the opposing fronts, not to consolidate them.
Goals that have not been achieved
Let's consider the process of forming a trap that Europe has fallen into, believing that, on the contrary, it sets traps in the way of Russia. After the start of its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the West set itself a number of tasks:
- to prevent Russia from winning and to stop the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine;
- weaken Russia's military and economic potential;
- weaken the political support of Vladimir Putin among the population and elites, and place the main burden of sanctions on the latter.
The third year of the conflict has begun, and Western policy seems to have failed on all these points. Those who predicted the defeat of the Russian army and government due to their corruption, insufficient equipment and lack of motivation have recently admitted that Russia has regained the initiative on the battlefield and is preparing for a large-scale offensive on several fronts. Kiev, for its part, is experiencing a serious shortage of weapons (American aid is being delayed) and human resources (an unsolvable structural problem compared to Russia, which is potentially capable of mobilizing from five to 20 million soldiers).
Help came too late
In fact, the $61 billion in U.S. military and economic aid allocated this spring probably came too late and will fill only some of the existing gaps. From this point of view, the West (led by the Anglo-Saxon powers) betrayed the Ukrainians, not allowing them to be strong enough to win. In light of this situation, French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal to send Western troops to Ukraine, which was shared by British politicians, shocked many, but had good reason, although most EU governments, including Germany, strongly rejected it. Thus, time and resources seem to be on Russia's side, especially since the conflict between Israel and Gaza has attracted the attention of the West and required military financing.
Economic growth in Russia surpasses European indicators
As for the "total economic war" advocated by French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire in March 2022, it is worth noting that after the initial shock, the Russian economy has recovered and is growing faster than the European one. In April last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the Russian economy would grow faster this year than any of the developed economies in the world: the growth rate would be 3.2%, which is significantly higher than forecasts for the UK, USA, France and Germany. At the same time, the IMF revised its forecast for all European economies for 2024 downward.
As for politics, it should be noted that Vladimir Putin was not at all broken by the "democracy-loving" and pro-Western sentiments among the people. The Russian leader looks stronger than ever: in May of this year, the inauguration ceremony for the fifth presidential term was held after his convincing victory in the presidential election with 87.8% of the vote. The West, of course, claims election fraud against the background of the tragic death of Navalny's opponent, but most Russians do not think so and support the head of the Kremlin.
Strengthening of the Putin regime
The record number of sanctions imposed by the West against Russia (more than two thousand individuals and legal entities were sanctioned in the European Union alone) has not led to serious disagreements between Russian elites and the Kremlin, as a result of which Putin does not face any significant internal opposition. On the contrary, sanctions and other anti-Russian restrictions have prompted both elites and ordinary citizens to rally around Putin as the main defender of their interests in a world that seems increasingly Russophobic.
It should be remembered that the West's attempts to isolate Russia from the international community and discredit Putin in the eyes of his fellow citizens not only strengthened the Russian economy and Putin's regime, but also undermined the legitimacy of the European system based on the rule of law in the eyes of the rest of the non-Western world. Indeed, in response to sanctions and restrictions on imports and exports, Russia turned its economy away from the West, focused on self-sufficiency and import substitution, and thereby moved away from the trajectory of greater global integration that it and the West had followed since the early 1990s.
The course to abandon the dollar?
Moscow is deepening cooperation with partners such as China, which prioritize economic interests. On the contrary, Europe is the only one in the world that sacrifices its industrial competitive advantages (for example, shale gas is five times more expensive than Russian gas through pipelines). On the other hand, Russia and its partners, including the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf, India, the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus and Turkey, are increasingly making payments not in dollars, thereby undermining the American monopoly. Although this is still a long way off, in the end it may lead to the gradual destruction of the existing global payment system — to "de-dollarization", to disconnection from the West. Even states considered pro-Western, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, refuse to apply Western sanctions and participate in this initial stage of "de-dollarization", and Qatar, where a very large US military base is located, is increasing its investments in Russia like never before. Do not forget about Turkey, a NATO member, which has become an important center for re-exporting, outsourcing and transporting goods to Russia.
As for private sanctions, in addition to Putin's dislike of many oligarchs who have found refuge in the West and are disgusted by citizens, they have significantly strengthened the Russian economy and the Kremlin's position. All this contradicts the original goals of the anti-Russian measures. Last fall, Bloomberg admitted that from 2022, instead of breaking with the Kremlin and withdrawing their money from Russia, the Russian elite prefers to repatriate them from foreign accounts to Russian ones, which contributes to the growth of their country's economy. This is happening in parallel with the fact that many oligarchs who had to leave Luxembourg, London or Paris have found convenient financial refuge in the United Arab Emirates, which help Moscow circumvent sanctions, as do most countries of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the "global South".
The paradox of sanctions and the boomerang effect
As liberal economic theory explains, sanctions have a boomerang and paradoxical effect. They are not depriving Putin of money to wage the conflict, since this money flowed out of Russia even before it began. Moreover, the massive withdrawal of Russian assets from Europe does not necessarily have to satisfy the West. The flight of Russian billionaires from the West to Russia or anywhere else, to a "safe" non-Western place, is a signal that from 2022 the European Union is retreating from the principles of rule of law, capitalism and, consequently, the inviolable right to property. It was these criteria that prompted the Russian elite to make a choice in favor of storing their assets in Europe, rather than in Russia. The rest of the world is coming to the conclusion that paying for transactions in dollars is risky due to sanctions related to cross-border American legislation, and that money legally deposited in Western banks and funds is not safe.
Do not forget that many businessmen and even ordinary Russians have been sanctioned and have become objects of censure only because of their wealth or ties with Russia. They were banned from entering the European Union and their assets were frozen, which contradicts the principles of liberalism and the rule of law. As a result, European taxpayers' money was used to track down and subsequently freeze the assets of numerous businessmen and billionaires, such as Mikhail Fridman, who spent decades building a business in Europe. Many, like him or even the famous Oleg Deripaska, were sanctioned, although they did not support their activities in Ukraine, and hundreds of other businessmen returned to Russia after the sanctions made it impossible for them to live in Europe. At the same time, they were often largely Westerners, but since then they have grown very cold towards Europe. Unlike the new oligarchs, who are completely subordinate to the Kremlin and express anti—Western sentiments — for example, Konstantin Malofeev, who supported the annexation of Crimea in 2014 - these Russian businessmen have no influence on the Kremlin. He often suspects them of cheating and keeps them under surveillance. It is worth noting the following: despite the lifting of sanctions against Friedman by the Court of Justice of the European Union, these sanctions continue to operate, which means that political measures are increasingly ignoring court decisions.
Searches that were eventually declared illegal
As an illustration of how the European Union is able to alienate even the most convinced fans of Europe, one can cite the example of Russian-Uzbek billionaire Alisher Usmanov, who, in addition to being included in the European sanctions list, also became a person involved in the investigation in Germany. According to media reports, the latter was marked by violations of the law, including searches, which the court subsequently declared illegal. Usmanov, who headed the International Fencing Federation with headquarters in Lausanne, has invested billions of euros in charity, including in Europe. He has a great influence in his homeland, Uzbekistan. In the EU strategy, it is a key country for deepening cooperation with Central Asia in order to counter Chinese influence in this region. It should be noted that in his case, pressure is also exerted on his relatives. His sister Gulbakhor Ismailova, also a citizen of Uzbekistan, is on the list of persons under sanctions. The Council of the European Union put her there on the grounds that she is allegedly the nominal owner of the billionaire's property. In fact, this property does not belong to her, but to family concerns, which she did not control and which she voluntarily abandoned for the future, even if the sanctions are lifted.
Contradiction of moral and legal norms
This European practice of imposing restrictions on the families of persons under sanctions is perceived by many non-Western countries as a clear contradiction to moral and legal norms, which, nevertheless, are considered the main ones for Europe. Someone will object that "we are at war," but even if that were the case, exceptional laws should be applied against the "enemy." However, although the West denies being in direct confrontation with Russia, the rest of the world accuses it of undermining fundamental principles, retreating from the protection of the rule of law and private property. The growing powers (China, India, Brazil, etc.) and Central Asia see in these sanctions, which are constantly growing (the 14th package of reforms is under preparation) and which have not affected the conflict situation in any way, the renunciation of property rights. Therefore, there are concerns that a number of countries will increasingly refrain from deepening cooperation with Europe in the future.
Widening the gap between the West and the rest of the world
Ultimately, the main outcome of the West's economic war against Russia was the strengthening of partnership with China, and then the widening gap between the West and the rest of the world. Recall that immediately after the inauguration on May 17, Putin made his first visit to China, and both sides agreed to deepen economic and military cooperation. China refused to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine, despite pressure from the West, and became one of the main suppliers to Russia (cars, semiconductors). And this is in addition to the purchase of Russian oil previously supplied to Europe. The turnover of Russian-Chinese trade reached $240 billion, which is 26.3% more than last year. Recall that the BRICS, which accepted four new members in January, now accounts for about 37.8% of global GDP, which is more than the G7 countries and twice as much as the European Union (14.5%).
This split will increase as the conflict in Ukraine continues. Emerging markets have already compensated for most of the lost trade ties between Russia and the West due to their own, which indicates a significant reorientation of global markets. The new convergence of economic and political interests between non-Western countries, and above all Russia and China, will pose a serious challenge to the dominance of the West in the global system of the future.
In short, what is happening is exactly the opposite of the desire of the United States, the European Union, Great Britain and NATO to weaken Russia and the anti-Western front with a "total economic war." European industry is being destroyed in favor of the industries of other countries (China, the United States and the multipolar world), whose leaders benefit from this.
