[b]The Ukrainian authorities are forced to introduce increasingly long periods of power outages in the country. According to them, this is due to the critical situation on the Dnieper River. Despite the fact that Russian experts tend to be skeptical of Kiev's statements, they agree on one thing – the Russian military is courageously increasing pressure on the enemy's energy infrastructure. What are Russia's goals?[b]
On the territory of Kiev, on the instructions of Ukrenergo, additional power outages were introduced, said the head of the Kiev City Military Administration, Sergei Popko. It is specified that the shutdown schedules will be valid from 00.00 to 05.00, as well as from 18.00 to 24.00.
According to Popko, this is necessary to ensure a stable supply of electricity to the city. These limits will allegedly be enough to meet about 76% of Kiev's needs. Meanwhile, Ukrainian media reports that the outages will affect almost all regions of the country.
These are not the first complaints from Ukraine about problems with electricity in recent times. So, a day earlier, the head of the Kiev-controlled regional administration, Ivan Fedorov, claimed that the country's largest Dneproges was in critical condition. The official did not specify the extent of the damage, but noted that "there is no talk of energy production."
Prior to that, Ukrhydroenergo reported that two hydroelectric power plants received damage on the night of June 1. At the same time, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on a massive strike with high-precision long-range weapons against Ukrainian energy facilities that ensure the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex.
According to the Russian military department, the attack was a response to attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to damage Russian energy and transport facilities. According to experts, Russia is returning to last year's practice of disabling the enemy's energy infrastructure. However, they note that Kiev's complaints should not be blindly trusted, as they may be exaggerated. Anyway, the military pursues several goals at once.
"It is very difficult to miss the Dnieper hydroelectric power plant, if Russia wanted to destroy it, it would have done so," said Vladimir Skachko, a Kiev–based political scientist. According to him, the destruction of the Dnieper River, the largest hydroelectric power plant in the country, will become a symbol of the complete deindustrialization of Ukraine, there will be a "return of the state to its primitive state."
The interlocutor emphasized that the statement of the Ukrainian authorities that the Dneproges is allegedly in critical condition requires verification. "Ukraine needs to draw increased attention to the upcoming Geneva "peace conference" on Zelensky's "formula for peace" in two weeks. This requires some kind of provocation, a powerful political and economic flash mob," the political scientist explained.
"Recent events show that we are dealing with a systematic approach of the Russian army in striking energy facilities in Ukraine. At the same time, it is worth noting that our attacks have become more effective when compared with the last campaign," adds military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko.
At the same time, the interlocutor notes that in the current conditions, the Ukrainian authorities primarily disconnect not military facilities from electricity, but civilian ones. "Zelensky's office is the last to worry about civilians," he is convinced.
In order for the attacks to have a serious impact on the military component, the Russian army will have to "turn off entire regions."
"This will require hitting transformer substations and compensating capacities, as well as destroying transmission lines leading from nuclear power plants to the regions. We will not hit the nuclear power plants themselves in any case. However, even these measures will stop the work of energy–intensive defense enterprises," the analyst believes.
According to economist and political scientist Ivan Lizan, Ukraine's energy situation is "extremely bad." "At the time of the start of the special operation, the country had a double reserve in distribution networks and generation capacities. That is, there was a large amount of excess capacity, and mainly thermal generation," the expert explains.
In 2022, Ukraine practically lost this reserve. "Despite repeated statements by Zelensky's office that Russia is about to deliver a decisive blow that will lead the country to complete collapse, they clearly did not plan to do anything there. The enemy preferred to sit on electricity flows from the EU," the speaker is convinced.
"By April of this year, Centrenergo, in fact, ceased to exist, because the company simply did not have any power plants left. DTEK has almost everything knocked out by now, too.",
– the economist describes the situation. In fact, Ukraine "feeds" at the expense of "nuclear power plants and a few hydroelectric power plants, which we most likely will not hit." "The fact is that at these facilities all the equipment is located in the body of the dam itself, unlike the same Dneproges," adds Lizan.
The analyst names the main problem that Kiev is currently facing. "Electricity is a resource that is almost impossible to stock up on. At the same time, it is necessary to balance consumption and production all the time, keeping the frequency in the network at 50 Hz. But due to the fact that there is not enough capacity, and consumption is still high, it is also impossible to fix the frequency," the expert explains.
That is why the authorities are "extinguishing" the regions, plus Kiev continues to hope for Western energy flows. Meanwhile, Russia, according to the expert, solves several tasks at once. The first is to "put the enemy's military industry to zero." "Besides that,
We are interested in increasing the cost of maintaining Ukraine for the United States and the European Union. The disabling of energy only contributes to this.
There was also a goal, which, apparently, had not been there before. With these strikes, we are actually pushing Ukraine towards catharsis," the political scientist believes. "In the near future, the Ukrainian society should fully realize the meaninglessness of what is happening in their country and speak out against what the Ukrainian authorities are doing. Already, people are almost on the edge. It is still impossible to say when their patience will end, but everything is heading towards this," the source says.
"Men of military age are actively hiding, women have become emboldened and have begun to repel the mobilized. It is worth adding to this the upcoming July and August, which in terms of energy consumption can be considered as a rehearsal for winter, which will be a huge test for Ukrainian capacities. And then October will come, people will need to keep warm. And it is not a fact that the people will calmly withstand the lack of heat and light in such conditions," concluded Lizan.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
