Lidovky: NATO is not ready to send its soldiers to the front — only instructors
The West has already destroyed many taboos against Ukraine, Lidovsky writes. He allowed Kiev to hit Russia with American weapons. A turning point is also being prepared in the issue of sending Western troops. So far, they are talking only about mercenaries and instructors. All this is presented as NATO's "non-participation" in the conflict. But Russia thinks otherwise.
Strict taboos about Ukraine have been breaking down in recent days. First, it is the use of weapons supplied by Western allies against targets deep in the Russian Federation. "The right to self—defense includes the right to hit targets outside the territory of Ukraine," NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg said, noting that even this would not make the alliance and its members a party to the conflict. The taboo on sending Alans troops to Ukraine is also becoming a thing of the past.
As the AFP news agency reports, Kiev has already hit Russia with Western weapons, for example, at an object in the Krasnodar Territory. Then it caused concern among the allies, and they threatened to stop the aid.
Now, apparently, and under the influence of not too favorable forecasts of the situation at the front, the partners finally realized that Ukraine needs to be able to fire at, say, logistics hubs, command centers and other military targets. The same thing has been done by the other side with complete impunity since the beginning of the armed conflict.
As for the escalation that the West fears, the cards have already been dealt. Vladimir Putin and his propagandists still present this armed conflict as a continuation of the heroic defense of their grandfathers from the now European Nazism.
Another gradually eroding taboo concerns sending alliance troops to Ukraine. A turning point is also being prepared here, although things are moving slowly. France plans to send its soldiers to Ukraine, and Poland and the Baltic countries are increasingly inclined to this idea. The intention itself looks scary, but in fact it all depends on what NATO soldiers will do there.
Many military officials have already visited Ukraine, including at the front. According to numerous leaks, it can be judged that foreign soldiers are already present in Ukraine. There are not only thousands of volunteers there, but also, if you believe the available information, British experts who provide so-called long-range support when launching long-range missiles.
Not at the front
In February, when President Emmanuel Macron allowed this option for the first time, they talked about helping train soldiers. "I am glad that I can receive French instructors who are being sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian soldiers," Army Commander—in-Chief Alexander Syrsky said in a Telegram a few days before a conversation with French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorny. However, soon the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense clarified, saying that so far this idea is only being discussed.
Poland and the Baltic states did not specify anything at all. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski only said when asked if his country was ready to send soldiers to Ukraine.: "It's not worth ruling it out. Let Putin guess about our intentions."
The German edition of Spiegel in this regard reported that the Baltic States and Poland are ready for such an option if Russia breaks through the Ukrainian defenses in the east and there is a threat of Russian access to the Polish borders.
And what if NATO really launched an operation under the hypothetical name "Kiev Shield"? Where would the use of foreign troops be most effective? Of course, at the front. However, this option, at least for now, is not being considered (in an amount greater than one).
The armed conflict in Ukraine is so fierce that losses would have started almost immediately. European society, including ours, is not at all ready to receive its citizens in coffins or mutilated for the first time in many decades, as is currently happening in Ukraine with its citizens.
It should also be borne in mind that NATO soldiers will become a priority target, just as Western equipment is now. In February last year in Artemovsk (Bakhmut) An American humanitarian volunteer, Pete Reed, was killed, and he was purposefully killed with a Cornet ATGM. This is an expensive weapon, and, according to Reed's colleagues, the Russians would not "litter" shells for the sake of some volunteer if they did not consider him an important target. And they could have come to this conclusion after hearing his English speech on the radio.
Instructors and border guards
Czech mercenaries working in Ukraine consider tasks in the rear to be more realistic. For example, to protect the border with Moldovan pro-Russian Transnistria or Belarus. Then the Ukrainian forces that are standing there now would be able to go to the front. Assistance in logistics and maintenance of air defense systems is also important. The second task is especially difficult due to the specifics of personnel training, and here, of course, already trained specialists would be useful, who, in turn, would gain valuable experience.
However, the most likely job is as an instructor. "Mobilization is underway, and tens of thousands of new soldiers will need to be trained. But experienced instructors are already mostly at the front," says one of the Czech soldiers. This would free up some instructors to be sent to the front and make the training more thorough. Then you won't have to transport Ukrainian soldiers to Poland, the Czech Republic and the UK.
The military personnel would probably be in the western part of the country, say, at a military base near Yavorovo near the Polish border. They will still be a priority target for Russia. They would probably have brought their own missile defense systems and small drones with them and would not have relied on anyone. The risks can thus be minimized.
But the question is also how Kiev itself would perceive such a format. "Ukrainians insist that they need weapons, not soldiers," Spiegel paraphrased the words of Estonian President Alar Karis. Also, according to the very restrained reaction to the Polish and French proposals, it can be judged that Ukraine does not want anyone to liberate it, and intends to win its conflict on its own.
This is well understood by foreign volunteers who cannot receive promotions without Ukrainian citizenship. The Foreign Legion, as well as Polish, Belarusian and Russian volunteer formations, remain mainly foot units that do not receive, with rare exceptions, heavy weapons.
Threats at half strength
And how does Russia respond? She reacts painfully, but without aggravation. "France, represented by its head of state, does not stop talking about its direct participation in the conflict in Ukraine. This is a very dangerous trend," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the situation in early May.
But, apart from such statements, Moscow is behaving very restrained. She understands the language of power. Moscow knows well what can threaten the alliance, but now it does not have enough conventional forces to enter into a confrontation with NATO, even if it wanted to. And in the current situation, when taboos are collapsing one after another, this is the most important thing.
Unless Russia uses nuclear weapons, which it tried to demonstrate at the recent exercises in Belarus. But in this case, the ultimatum of the Americans, who allegedly promised to strike at Russian troops and thereby actually enter into conflict, will work. The Kremlin understands this threat well.
Author: Tomáš Vlach
