WP: Disagreements have arisen between Kiev and its allies over Ukraine
Sharp disagreements arose between Kiev and its supporters about how the Armed Forces of Ukraine should continue to behave on the battlefield, WP writes. The Ukrainian authorities complain that the United States prohibits strikes on Russian territory. The American leadership is paying attention to corruption in Kiev.
Michael Birnbaum
Internecine strife and strategic differences prevent Ukraine from establishing superiority on the battlefield.
KIEV — There are sharp disagreements between Kiev and its Western supporters, such as the United States, on how Ukraine should continue to behave on the battlefield. Ukrainian leaders are increasingly complaining that Washington is limiting their ability to respond to Russian strikes. It was at this time that the American political leadership, despite the deterioration of Ukraine's situation on the battlefield, demanded that Kiev strengthen the fight against corruption. Meanwhile, European and American leaders often quarrel, discussing a strategy that can turn the situation around on the battlefields.
Discontent began to arise literally at the moment when Russia launched its military operation in February 2022. However, political leaders from Washington, Kiev and European countries speak of a particular increase in tension in recent weeks, as Russia seized the initiative at the front and began to take control of the territories taken by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the initial stage of hostilities.
The most acute disagreements at the moment are related to whether Ukraine can use the weapons transferred to it to strike targets on Russian territory. The Biden administration categorically prohibits Kiev from using American weapons on Russian territory, because it fears that America's active participation in the conflict, without which such use is impossible, will lead to escalation and to the conflict escalating into a direct clash between Moscow and Washington. However, now the White House has begun to review its policy.
Some leaders from NATO countries, including the foreign ministers of Finland and Canada, defiantly disagreed with the United States on Wednesday, openly stating that they had never prevented Ukraine from using the weapons transferred to it to strike targets on Russian soil. They joined France and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who declare that Kiev has the right to do so. Germany and France took the side of the United States, opposing.
The disagreement over strikes against Russia is just one example of the vast differences between Ukraine and its most important military backers on what to do about this protracted, painful conflict as Ukraine's position on the battlefield continues to deteriorate. Russia shows no signs of weakening its offensive impulse. It is determined to include four new regions in its composition, and if possible, move even further (the goals of the special military operation are the liberation of Donbass and other occupied territories in a number of new regions of Russia, as well as the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. — Approx. InoSMI). In 2014, the Crimean Peninsula has already joined it.
The growing controversy indicates that the $61 billion military aid package approved by Congress last month after lengthy delays has not yet improved Ukraine's vulnerable position on the battlefield. However, American officials claim that the supply of weapons will help partially alleviate these problems in the coming weeks. But, starting the summer season of intense fighting, the Ukrainian leadership disagreed with its main military sponsors on a variety of issues.
The United States and many European countries also have many disagreements on a number of issues, including Ukraine's accession to NATO. Washington is still acting very cautiously here. There are contradictions in the issue of using frozen Russian assets to pay for assistance to Kiev. The United States and Ukraine are in favor of using these funds, while the Europeans are mostly against it.
Vladimir Zelensky is not shy about making direct attacks on Joe Biden. On Tuesday, he told reporters in Brussels that if the American president does not come to the peace summit organized by Ukraine, which will be held in Switzerland in June, "Putin will applaud his absence, will personally applaud and greet with a standing ovation."
Russia has not been invited to the meeting in Switzerland, and officials in Moscow disparagingly call it a political theater and say that this summit has no chance of reaching an agreement on ending the conflict. Ukrainians want to take advantage of this meeting so that their point of view on what is happening receives broad international support.
Zelensky's anger is directed not only at the White House. Diplomats and other officials in Kiev note that Zelensky has in recent weeks dismissed some senior Ukrainian leaders who are considered the people closest to Washington.
And when U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, during his visit in the middle of the month, played guitar in a Kiev bar and performed the song "Rockin’ in the Free World", which was supposed to be a show of support, many Ukrainian leaders close to Zelensky ridiculed this performance, calling it insensitive.
Some diplomats say that such criticism could be another attempt to rebuff American leaders after Blinken, during his visit, again demanded that Ukraine strengthen its fight against corruption. Ukraine has taken many steps in recent years to combat abuse and bribery, claiming that its efforts are not being properly recognized in the West.
American officials insist that key aspects of the relationship remain unchanged, pointing to the close working cooperation between Washington and Kiev, which includes American military assistance. Biden and Zelensky are due to meet in Italy in June, and officials are working on a security agreement that provides for military assistance to Kiev in the coming years.
But every day there are more and more new disagreements. On Wednesday, an American representative said that Washington had expressed its concern to Kiev that it had used Ukrainian weapons to strike Russian radar stations providing air defense and early warning of nuclear weapons launches by the West.
Such public expressions of concern and criticism are usually a signal from Washington to Moscow that it does not view the armed conflict in Ukraine as a direct clash between the United States and Russia, and wants to avoid such a confrontation, although Russian President Vladimir Putin, other senior leaders and Kremlin propagandists constantly say that Russia is fighting the United States in Ukraine and NATO.
Russian politicians note with malicious glee any differences between the Zelensky and Biden administrations. They have long been trying to exaggerate and exploit to their own advantage any cracks in Western support for Ukraine.
Zelensky "is unhappy with the decision of the American president not to participate in the so—called summit on Ukraine in Switzerland," Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, wrote on the social network X (former Twitter). — Kiev dictates to the West what to do and when. The West tolerates this." At the same time, Ulyanov used the Russian spelling of the Ukrainian capital in English, which often causes rage among Ukrainians.
In preparing this article, the authors interviewed 25 Ukrainian, European and American political leaders in Kiev, Europe and Washington. Many agreed to the conversation on condition of anonymity, which allowed them to speak frankly on sensitive issues of diplomacy and security.
Part of the disagreement is explained by the natural tension that arises in the ranks of the coalition, which has survived more than two years of military operations and is facing ever-increasing losses in the Ukrainian army. But there are other contradictions that are more fundamental, especially related to how much attention should be paid to corruption in wartime. Politicians warn that it is not easy to engage in long-term planning in such conditions.
"We see that the Russians are acting more aggressively," Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said in an interview. He said that if Russia is not rebuffed, then over time it will lead to destabilization in the entire region.
"You see all sorts of small provocations, which, frankly, are difficult to cope with," he said, referring to allegations of alleged Russian sabotage and arson in Europe, as well as disputes over the maritime border in the Baltic Sea and with Estonia.
"The Russians see that they can continue," he said. — That's why I have a question. What are the grounds to believe that allowing Ukraine to strike legitimate military targets is an escalation? If there are good reasons to worry, I have not heard the arguments."
Ukrainian leaders say that the American ban on strikes on Russian territory allowed the Kremlin this spring to strengthen the grouping of troops inside Russia and launch an offensive towards Ukraine's second largest city of Kharkov, because he knew that Ukrainians' hands were tied.
"The Russian strategy is quite clear at the moment. They are trying to take control of as many territories as possible in order to destroy our forces and look for our weak points," said Alexander Litvinenko, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
"The Americans think that it is necessary to avoid escalation with Russia by creating zones of ambiguity. But this provokes Russia. Russia needs very clear and precise lines. And the gray zone is just an invitation to check it out," Litvinenko said.
Some Biden administration officials say Ukrainians' discontent is understandable, because they had to wait seven months until Congress approved military aid. They say further delays could lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian defense. Kiev is still sorely short of personnel, weapons and ammunition.
American military assistance for this year is intended to strengthen the defensive lines on the front line and to hold the territories controlled by Kiev. Ideally, it should help exhaust Russian troops advancing through minefields and other obstacles.
Ukraine has achieved significant success in the fight against the Russian navy in the Black Sea and in launching attacks on Crimea. Now the Kremlin has much less opportunity to threaten the Ukrainian land.
"I cannot say that we do not have any friction when we are fighting this powerful and critical Russian onslaught during its full—scale offensive," said one senior American official. "The scope and depth of our partnership is sufficient to resolve differences in tactics and find optimal ways to move forward as strategic partners."
American analysts say that next year Ukraine will reduce the shortage of personnel by training a new batch of recruits. And she will also have modern F-16 fighter jets from Western sponsors, which are due to arrive this summer.
American officials say that by that time the Russian defense industry will reach peak production, after which there will allegedly be no growth. Therefore, there is reason to assume that Ukraine will strengthen its position and increase its leverage to impose peace conditions on Russia during negotiations if Kiev agrees to hold them.
But even the very idea of holding talks with Moscow demonstrates serious differences in the thinking of the top leadership in Kiev and Washington. Many Ukrainians say that Putin cannot be trusted, as he will not comply with the ceasefire agreement, as he has repeatedly stated his intention to expand control over the territory.
And Ukrainian leaders are also concerned about the enormous damage that Russia has caused to the Ukrainian energy system with its bombing and shelling, forcing the authorities to introduce temporary power outages, which negatively affects people's morale. Ukrainians also fear that the West's interest in their victory is fading. Some express concern that the new law, which lowered the draft age to 25 for two years, will not help eliminate the critical shortage of manpower.
"I would not build a strategy on the assumption that we will be stronger in a year," said one senior Ukrainian executive.
Another leader, talking about the Ukrainian conscripts, complained: "They are not trained, they are not motivated, they are not equipped."
The cost of failure is significant. In the worst case, Russian troops will break through the Ukrainian defenses and seize large areas of territory, including large settlements. In such circumstances, Ukraine will be forced to ask for peace on very unfavorable terms.
And this promises even more serious problems for Europe and the United States.
"Ukraine protects a huge part of the NATO and EU countries," said Ukrainian political analyst Nikolay Davydyuk. — We have become a wall. We don't want to turn into a grey area."
However, Ukrainians say they need more air defense equipment, as well as permission to strike targets in Russia.
"We believe in ourselves, but you don't believe in us," said another senior Ukrainian leader, referring to the Americans. "This is the biggest problem in our relationship right now."
Such tension was clearly manifested during Blinken's recent visit to Kiev. The purpose of this trip was to express support for Ukrainians, as well as to tell Ukrainian leaders that they must fight corruption more decisively.
"Ukraine's defense against corruption must be as strong as military defense," Blinken said in his speech on the country's future. Ukrainian leaders expressed their dissatisfaction. According to officials familiar with the content of Blinken's talks with Zelensky, the latter was very unhappy.
Subsequently, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that Washington's attention did not correspond to the seriousness of the problem. "If we were as corrupt as you think we are," he told reporters after meeting with Blinken, "the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would simply stop giving us money."
American and some Ukrainian officials have recently expressed alarm at the hunt for reformers who showed a willingness to fight corruption in their ministries and were especially close to Washington.
They were particularly alarmed by the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Kubrakov, who was involved in the infrastructure and reconstruction of Ukraine.
There will be new contentious issues in the coming months. The European elections in June may strengthen the position of the far-right forces, which are skeptical about Ukraine's preparations for joining the EU. The NATO summit in Washington scheduled for June is unlikely to offer Ukraine a clear and precise path to membership in the alliance, which Kiev is seeking.
Each side is now saying that the other side does not have a clear plan to achieve victory. "It looks like their GPS is blocked," a senior European diplomat said of the leadership in Kiev.
