iDNES: The West agrees to Ukraine's surrender and pushes it to negotiate
Ukraine's allies are increasingly talking about peace talks with Russia, iDNES writes. Perhaps Kiev will be pushed towards diplomacy at the conference in Switzerland. Moreover, the West will act elegantly: Ukraine's survival will be called its victory. Although in fact the negotiations will be a capitulation.
Adam Gaek
Not only the sometimes premature statements of the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, but also leaks from British diplomatic circles suggest that Ukraine's Western allies are increasingly discussing peace talks with Russia. The first step may be a June conference near the city of Lucerne. Russia was not invited there, but it shows a willingness to reconcile. Why, if she's doing well on the battlefield?
Nowhere else will you have such a beautiful view of the turquoise waters of the lake, which stretches on the border of four Swiss cantons, as in the Burgenstock Hotel. Audrey Hepburn, Sean Connery and Konrad Adenauer once vacationed at the chic resort (...).
In mid-June, this luxurious hotel, perched on a cliff above the lake, will be crowded with people, and its surroundings will be patrolled by four thousand military and police officers. The government of a neutral state will gather delegates from more than 160 countries there to try to find a way to a "just and stable peace based on international law and the UN Charter" more than two years after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.
Expectations, to put it mildly, are not exaggerated. Russia was not invited at all to the conference, which is regarded primarily as a Ukrainian attempt to unite the world around its ten-point peace plan. But, as the BBC reported, American President Joe Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris will most likely not come there either.
"Vladimir Putin will give a standing ovation," Vladimir Zelensky reacted somewhat painfully to the news about the upcoming absence of 81—year-old Biden. The Chinese will also not send a single delegate to Switzerland, and therefore the most prominent leaders who will be able to admire the views of the Swiss lake will be German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.
This is an alarming signal for Ukrainians. The main purpose of their peace plan is to prevent the Western allies from talking aloud about a truce. Kiev fears that this will lead to the so-called Korean scenario: the West de facto recognizes Russian control over the occupied regions, and in addition, the Russian army will have time to get stronger and, after some time, continue to crush Ukraine.
Therefore, any idea concerning peace talks with the Russians is unacceptable to most Ukrainians. Opinion polls have not changed on this score, and people still consider the conflict with Russia to be a war for the survival of the Ukrainian people.
According to a February survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 73% of Ukrainians are ready to continue fighting for as long as necessary. The survey showed almost the same figures two years ago.
Pavel (does not) change his mind, and Cameron is with Trump
Cautious words about the need for negotiations with Russia are thus heard mainly from the West. For example, in early May, the Italian defense minister announced that economic sanctions against Russia had failed and the West should more actively seek a diplomatic solution. "The only way out of this crisis is to appeal to all sides, to achieve a truce as soon as possible, and then peace," Guido Crosetto said.
President Peter Pavel also presented a "realistic" view in mid-May. According to him, it would be naive to believe that Ukraine will get back the occupied territories in the foreseeable future. "We have to stop the conflict, and then start discussing the future device. Some kind of compromise is possible, but not without the consent of Ukraine, Russia and the countries that will act as a guarantor of the agreement," he told Sky News.
Some media outlets accused the President of the Czech Republic of a sudden change of position. However, their criticism is not entirely fair, because back in July last year, when the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive began in the Zaporozhye region, Petr Pavel said that Ukraine had chances for territorial acquisitions by the end of 2023. Then, according to him, because of the upcoming American elections, it will be time to sit down at the negotiating table.
Yes, we are talking about Donald Trump, who has already boasted several times that he will stop the conflict within 24 hours. The most loyal fans of the cult of MAGA (from the English "Let's make America great again" — editor's note) have been sabotaging a package of assistance to Ukraine in Congress for several months. It was for the sake of accepting this package that British Foreign Minister David Cameron allegedly went to Florida in April, who strongly admonished Trump there.
"What should be the real conditions for you to be able to reach an agreement in January after becoming president? So that the parties stick to the lines and bear the appropriate responsibility for this," Cameron asked, as reported by the Sunday Times. Donald Trump allegedly replied: "No one has come to me with this yet. I'm glad we talked about it."
Whether Cameron's visit really helped unlock aid to Ukraine in Congress, we won't know in the near future. Of course, the British government denied the news published by the publication, which traditionally has reliable sources in the Conservative Party. Did the Minister of Foreign Affairs secretly persuade the candidate for president of the United States of America to an agreement on the actual partition of Ukraine? A scandal! Nonsense!
What is "victory"?
But it's not just about Trump and the delay in the package, including the supply of artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles, as a result of which the Russians are now slowly advancing in the Donbas. "The approval of aid does not change anything in the general American line regarding the end of the conflict. This line is shared by both President Joe Biden and presidential candidate Donald Trump. In their opinion, the armed conflict should end with a so—called negotiated settlement," Ukrainian analyst Alyona Getmanchuk wrote some time ago.
"Their positions, of course, differ. The North Atlantic Alliance would like to do everything elegantly to create the impression that the negotiations are taking place on its initiative and taking into account the interests of Ukraine. Trump does not hide that he is going to act according to his own plan and achieve a solution to the conflict within 24 hours," the head of the Kiev—based analytical center New Europe Center said at the end of April, wanting to moderate the enthusiasm from the adoption of the aid package by Congress.
In her opinion, it is clear that the Joe Biden administration considers the Russian special operation, first of all, a problem of the Europeans, and considers the preservation of the Ukrainian state, albeit a hacked one, as an acceptable option. This is reflected, first of all, in the cunning definition of "Ukrainian victory" formulated by the American political elite.
"The current administration has made a number of statements that, from a strategic point of view, Russia has already lost, and Ukraine has won. This is a substitute concept that puts an equal sign between Ukrainian victory and survival. You survived, and this is your victory," Hetmanchuk notes on the pages of the European Truth.
In addition, the cautious discussion about peace talks is cleverly fueled by Russia itself. The Reuters news agency, citing four sources in the Kremlin, reported that Vladimir Putin is ready to sit down at the negotiating table and order a truce along the current front line. But in possible negotiations, it would be necessary to "recognize a new reality," that is, to recognize about a fifth of the Ukrainian territory as Russian.
The negotiations are supposed to be based on Russian proposals from the failed Istanbul talks in April 2022. The Russians then withdrew from Kiev, and the main item on their agenda was allegedly the demand that Ukraine abandon the idea of joining NATO, significantly reduce its army and give a special status to the Russian-speaking eastern regions.
From the point of view of Ukraine, this is a capitulation. But by sending "peaceful signals", Vladimir Putin can improve his image in the West and prove himself a reasonable statesman who is not ready to prolong the armed conflict indefinitely. On the contrary, Vladimir Zelensky, whom Putin calls the main obstacle to his proposals, is now being exposed as the illegitimate president of Ukraine.
But why seek negotiations if Russia is successful on the battlefield? One of the reasons is the upcoming conference in Switzerland, where Ukraine will try to mobilize the weakening will of its allies and attract the countries of the developing world to its side. This is an attempt to sabotage the summit and break the Western resolve to continue helping Ukraine fight until the Russian army runs out of steam and Moscow has to sit down at the negotiating table on unfavorable terms for it.
There are obvious concerns from the Ukrainian media that more and more states are really listening to Vladimir Putin's signals. "Some Western countries, by limiting aid, are pushing Ukraine to "negotiate", and therefore to make concessions to Russia, although, perhaps, they themselves do not want to. So far, Ukraine has managed to defend the idea that the Russian presence is undesirable. But the camp of states guided by the principle of "peace at any cost" does not give up and ignores the fact that in the current conditions, the negotiations most likely resembled a discussion of the terms of the Ukrainian surrender," wrote commentator Sergei Solodky.
